Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

gfplux

So MEP’s don’t know everything.

A little like us all.

Arklight

Enterprise_1701C wrote: »

I would like to know how this could work, because Scotland is not a member of the eu, the UK is. Therefore Scotland could not "return". They could apply to join, once they have met the qualification criteria, but they simply could not just walk in.

I still struggle to see why they are so desperate to be "independent" and yet wish to be in a protectionist regime with which they do so little trade.

I’m pretty sure the UK is going to have the sum total of zero influence on who joins the EU by March next year.

Enterprise_1701C

Arklight wrote: »

I’m pretty sure the UK is going to have the sum total of zero influence on who joins the EU by March next year.

It's not about influence, it is simply what has previously been stated.

At the moment Scotland could not qualify for membership, the eu would have to break all sorts of rules to let them join. Mind you, it has done before, especially with people wanting to join the euro - mainly because the euro is used as a cosh to force people to remain in the eu.

Which brings me to another point, for a long time Scotland has said they would not have to join the euro if they joined the eu, but since about 1999 the accession treaty has included a legal obligation to join the euro.

cogito

ilovehouses wrote: »

When it comes to voting the EU28 generally all vote the same way even on QMV matters.

You make it sound like the UK has been a lone voice of dissent against everything EU for forty years.

But your buddy Herzlos said in the post above mine that the UK had a veto. Now you seem to be disagreeing with him. Which is it?

Herzlos

I don't see the contradiction.

cogito wrote: »

What could we veto, exactly? Not very much since the EU are replacing it with QMV for nearly everything.

I'm pretty sure we could have veto the move to QMV. I haven't read the treaties in detail though.

Thrugelmir

gfplux wrote: »

So MEP’s don’t know everything.

A little like us all.

People in such positions shouldn't make factually incorrect statements though. Though there's no evidence that actually did. Social media makes news out of absolutely nothing but opinion.

GreatApe

buglawton wrote: »

The Brexit realignment has really pointed up why trade barriers exist. So there have been stiff barriers for a long time against Chinese cars, due to the perception that due to their low labour costs and cheap supply chain, they'd obliterate our EU/local car industries.

Even rampant globalists and free trade evangelists might concede that this kind of trade regulation is needed to maintain social stability in the West. Similar arguments hold for farming.

Funny then that when a radically cheaper source of migration-ready labour suddenly came on tap in the EU (the ex communist countries that joined), the UK govt was unable to do anything much. The EU mandarins deigned that there wasn't even a problem to solve.

Lack of overall EU joined-up thinking and the outcome is starting to become clear... Brexit or nationalist popularism depending on country.

Manufacturing jobs were not taken by the Chinese they were taken by machines and automation and it made the country richer.
I used to work at a steel plant that went from 30,000 men to 3,000 men
At the same time production went up 3x
That means workforce per unit of steel feel 97%

There are types of manufacturing. Bulk and high value and perishable
Bulk manufacturers you tend to do locally because transport costs are high.
With steel the UK wages make up less than 10% of price.
When the world economy is strong hiring cape sized vessels can cost $100,000+ per day.
So while wages are lower in China the $5 million more in wages is more or less covered by $5 million in additional transport costs. Food is a large part of manufacturing that is mostly done nationally. High value we do too.

With regards to cars how many people does the large Sunderland plant employ? 4,000 directly? That's a lot of workers but the last 12 months UK full time job numbers increased by 337,000

Overall I would say manufacturing is going to go the way of farming. No one calls for more farming jobs. Its really low value and just 1-2% of the population has it covered. Manufacturing will also go down to 2-4% of the workforce. Not just in the UK but globally.

Tromking

Arklight wrote: »

I’m pretty sure the UK is going to have the sum total of zero influence on who joins the EU by March next year.

Had we stayed it wouldn’t have been much different. Juncker and Verhofstadt have both stated that non-Eurozone EU nations need to be ignored going forward and then ultimately thrown out.
I see that as part of the initial agreement between the potential German coalition partners, there’s a section on giving Macron full support on his Eurozone integration plans.
We’re leaving at just the right time.

Tromking

Thrugelmir wrote: »

People in such positions shouldn't make factually incorrect statements though. Though there's no evidence that actually did. Social media makes news out of absolutely nothing but opinion.

I feel quite sorry for the woman listening to 50 odd whingeing British ex-pats dripping for 2 hours must have been a nightmare.

gfplux

Is this an example of how good deal with another 3rd Country would work.

Item one.
3rd Country wants zero import duty on cheese when it enters Britain.
This is agreed and reciprocal.
Item two.
Britain wants zero import duty on wooden furniture when it enters the 3rd Country. This is agreed and reciprocal.

So it would continue covering the thousands of products each country makes.

Is that how a good deal looks with a third country.
Do the negotiators worry about unfair competition? Do the negotiators start with the principal of protecting British Industry? Who tells them which industry to protect?

What about the “good deal” so many posters expect from the EU.
Again it would work item by item, or would it.

The mechanics of any good deal is all about self interest and those that lobby best often find their self interests are the one protected.

Few posters on here appear to work in manufacturing. It would be interesting to hear their views and who do they think is going to stand at their shoulder to protect their industry.

What about posters involved in importing. If the “product” they import suddenly had larger or no import duties applied because of what was negotiated in a room in a 3rd Country’s capital or Brussels. Who is looking after their interest?

A “free” trade deal can make or break industries, Company’s and people.