Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

vivatifosi

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Public opinion against Brexit continues to grow.

It would be really useful.to see that with a Brexit timeline along the bottom showing what was happening at the time. For example, was the peak inJan 17 down to a particular event?

Thrugelmir

vivatifosi wrote: »

It would be really useful.to see that with a Brexit timeline along the bottom showing what was happening at the time. For example, was the peak inJan 17 down to a particular event?

Be more usefull once there's a full and final settlement to discuss. Time of year maybe influencing people currently. Once the daylight hours improve so will the mood.

gfplux

vivatifosi wrote: »

In answer to gfplux above, presumably it depends on how tightly defined the sectors are. They will likely use SIC codes to define the sector. For example, all farming in the UK on UK codes begins 01, but is then broken down by sector, so broadly, farming with animals is 014, then raising dairy cattle is 01410. So the number gets longer with each additional level of detail.

However that's just for the cattle. Moving over to the production side, 105 is broadly dairy. Liquid milk and cream is 10511. Cheese and dairy manufacture is code 10512. So the further you get into the detail, the more sections you would need in your fta. I don't have the full list in front of me, but the cheese sector will probably break down further too.

I'm not an expert on manufacturing, but I am a researcher who has worked with industry classifications for many years. The government breaks down all its codes this way and are able to draw up lists of companies affected by each variation should they so wish, as that's how it is recorded on their databases. Other countries also have similar lists of codes and some big organisations such as Dun and Bradstreet, have lists codes by multiple standards, e.g. UK and USA. The EU codes are standardised, so the UK adopted the EU standard (NACE).

So going back to your question, how many would we need. It depends how you break it down. If you go for the most basic, goods and services, you would potentially need two. It will be more complicated than that though as hopefully I've demonstrated. Arable farming is another example. You could have one agreement covering all fruit and veg, two agreements, one for fruit, one for veg, or go further and break down by the specific crop.

The problem with all of these specifications is that you can still be outside the classification and be a business with activities not elsewhere classified! Thankfully there aren't lots of those and some I suspect from working with the codes for a long time is lazy classification, but they do exist.

Thank you Vivatifosi for that (frightening) peek into the SIC code book.
I might be wrong but a distant memory suggests the “book” is rather large and running to hundreds if not thousands of import classifications.
That is why these trade deals take such a long time to negotiate and agree.
Most people and posters here keep talking about a good deal.
A good deal is one where MY PRODUCT/INDUSTRY is protected by high import barriers from competing products.
Any poster working in industry/manufacturing or has family or friends doing so need to hope that their local MP is lobbying on their behalf to ensure a good deal for them or perhaps hope that they live in a Conservative stronghold.
Everyone should be aware that the trade negotiators working for Britain with the EU are being given their priorities by the Government and not a cross party grouping.

System

Tromking wrote: »

I see your point, but UK consumer spending despite predictions to the contrary has been quite robust so far.

Yes, but the conclusion in the Deloitte report is the UK consumer will take some time out from buying new cars (German or otherwise) in the event of a messy hard brexit.

Maybe it's a nonsense assumption. Maybe the conclusion about the effect on German car sales in the UK is also nonsense given the robustness of the UK consumer but that's to cherry pick parts of the report we 'like'.

I don't think we're going to get a messy hard brexit but in the event the Germans are going to throw a large chunk of promotional budget towards paying the brexit tax. It's not sustainable ongoing but German cars deliver a decent margin. UK made Toyota & Nissans don't deliver the same margin.

What we can be reasonably certain is that tariffs are a barrier to trade and therefore trade will decline.

System

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Be more usefull once there's a full and final settlement to discuss. Time of year maybe influencing people currently. Once the daylight hours improve so will the mood.

Yes, it's well known that there's a direct correlation between daylight hours and attitudes towards Europe.

Thrugelmir

Tromking wrote: »

I see your point, but UK consumer spending despite predictions to the contrary has been quite robust so far.

Mirrored by ever increasing debt levels. That have finally reached the point of creating concern. Lenders are finally tightening up on unsecured credit. Under the watchfull eye of the BOE. Ford probably make more money through their finance arm than they do selling the cars. Some 80% of new retail car sales being financed.

tracey3596

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Public opinion against Brexit continues to grow.

Add to that "in some polls of a few folk and mostly conducted online, then "weighed" etc. (read "fiddled-with to get the result we want to show you").
In effect, more straws being clutched I see.

As I have posted before, maybe you could consider why you think that more people would like to remain in the EU when - after deciding to leave - to date the UK is seeing amongst other benefits:

Increased numbers employed/less unemployed and wages showing the green shoots of rising healthily.
Record investment in the country, hundreds of thousands of new jobs.
Continued, steady growth and exports in particular booming.
The far-right extremism which is finding its' way into parliaments across the EU (and is extending) has been avoided.
Above all, officially (ONS) we are happier than ever.

What similar facts have remainers got to further their cause?
Well, the £ is a little lower - it'll cost more to go on holiday and a few things are a little more expensive.
Anything else?
Imaginings of what might happen won't work because so many have been proven completely wrong so far so go on, what else?

And yet some folk persist in their dream that more people would vote to stay in the EU now?
You're having a laugh.

gfplux

Tromking wrote: »

I’ve got to say that I’m struggling with the notion that in the event of a non-sympathetic Brexit for the German car industry, the UK consumer would rather not buy a new car because it isn’t German and the rest of Europe will rather conveniently pick up the slack and start buying a shed load more German cars.
What am I missing?

If as you say a non sympathetic Brexit would mean high import duty’s on imported BMW, Audi, Wolkswagen and Mercedes Cars then the marketing spend by these brands in Britain would be switched to other markets. Presently there is huge growth in the Far East so we have to expect that marketing spend would switch there.

The German car makers would hope to replace the loss of volume in the UK with additional sales in for example Chine.

British consumer magazines would hope the loss of glossy car adverts spend by the big German manufacturers would not mean they would go bankrupt and have to lay off workers.

It’s called cause and effect
Or
Unintended consequences

Thrugelmir

gfplux wrote: »

Presently there is huge growth in the Far East so we have to expect that marketing spend would switch there.

Marketing alone won't sell cars in volume. The whole infrastucture needs to be in place. Sales, Servicing, Parts etc etc. That's years of work. Let alone building cars that people actually will wish to buy. As different markets. BMW is highly dependent on the UK.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Thrugelmir wrote: »

BMW is highly dependent on the UK.

No it's not.

The UK is BMW's 4th largest market but only accounts for 10% of global sales.

So a significant drop in BMW sales in the UK, say 10% - 20%, would equate to just 1% to 2% of BMW's current global production.

However a 20% fall in BMW's UK sales would be pretty devastating for the British owned franchise sales and service network, along with all the staff who work for them.