Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

BobQ

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/hungary-poland-see-anti-migration-stance-spreading-eu-140902459.html

A development in EU thinking on immigration.

"The EU's immigration policy is not working. What is more, it is not only not working but it has failed spectacularly," Orban said. "It is clear that the European people don't want immigration, while several European leaders are still forcing the failed immigration policy."

Hungarian PM

Thrugelmir

BobQ wrote: »

A fair point. The problem we have though is that until 18 months ago we were chugging along and the economy was at least growing more than our main competitors.

Ever increasing consumer debt has been on the radar for some considerable time. Likewise the ECB is behind both the Fed and the BOE when it comes to monetary easing. Comparisons therefore are somewhat meaningless.

Tromking

Herzlos wrote: »

I've seen a lot of cherry picked history in justification of how brexit is a great thing. Usually followed by a lot of outrage when pointed out that a lot of the UK's success is based on bad things. It hasn't happened on here in a while so I've no intention of finding any quotes.

If it makes you feel any better the UK bankrupted itself fighting fascism midway through the last century and I’m not sure any residual benefits of empire have existed for a generation or two.

wunferall

BobQ wrote: »

A development in EU thinking on immigration.

Sadly it looks like the EU are not changing their stance at all; the Visegrad group's stance has long been known. Your Yahoo link may be recent but in fact this is old news.
This has been ongoing since Merkel's mass invite tbh and things have not improved in the near-three years since, which leaves a few possibilities.

1/ The EU reforms it's policies. Unlikely given the rhetoric being spouted by seniors in the EU hierarchy.

2/ The EU splits into factions. Given what is already happening with the Visegrad group this looks increasingly likely. The only way the EU can stave off this split is with some serious placation - which there is absolutely zero evidence of so far.

3/ The existing divisions worsen and the EU either has a complete rebrand or disbands altogether. Unlikely but possible given the rise of extremism within the EU, together with the frailty of the Netherlands and now Germany plus forthcoming likely gains for populists in Sweden and in Italy.


IMHO it appears that the clever Swiss realise this.
That is why a call for their own EU referendum is gathering pace.

Thrugelmir

wunferall wrote: »

IMHO it appears that the clever Swiss realise this.
That is why a call for their own EU referendum is gathering pace.

Well timed, given the similar onslaught the UK is bound to face in the coming months. An opportunity to build relationships out of common adversity.

BobQ

wunferall wrote: »

Sadly it looks like the EU are not changing their stance at all; the Visegrad group's stance has long been known. Your Yahoo link may be recent but in fact this is old news.
This has been ongoing since Merkel's mass invite tbh and things have not improved in the near-three years since, which leaves a few possibilities.

1/ The EU reforms it's policies. Unlikely given the rhetoric being spouted by seniors in the EU hierarchy.

2/ The EU splits into factions. Given what is already happening with the Visegrad group this looks increasingly likely. The only way the EU can stave off this split is with some serious placation - which there is absolutely zero evidence of so far.

3/ The existing divisions worsen and the EU either has a complete rebrand or disbands altogether. Unlikely but possible given the rise of extremism within the EU, together with the frailty of the Netherlands and now Germany plus forthcoming likely gains for populists in Sweden and in Italy.

I appreciate that this has been festering for a few years, but it seems that the two leaders are suggesting a further development this year:

"Poland and Hungary are winning the battle against the EU over immigration, the two countries’ premiers said Wednesday, with Hungary’s Viktor Orban predicting “a year of great confrontations” with Brussels.

“The dial is turning in our direction,” Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said in Budapest, showing a united front with Orban in his first bilateral trip since being appointed last month.
The European Union is taking Hungary, Poland and also the Czech Republic to court over their refusal to accept EU mandatory quotas for asylum-seekers decided by a majority of member states in 2015."

kabayiri

ilovehouses wrote: »

According to 'reports'.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/03/britain-in-talks-to-join-the-tpp-to-boost-trade-after-brexit



Need to keep an eye on this. They're so desperate for a brexit success they'll take any deal on any terms with anybody.

Whenever there is change there is money to be made. This fact is not lost on people outside these small islands.

If we can't rely on our government to embrace the future, we might as well look for other entrepreneurs, and places like USA have stacks of them.

kabayiri

BobQ wrote: »

Another Brexiteer who thinks its all about reducing immigration. Allegedly this nation has full employment including a large number of self employed.

I'm all for encouraging less immigration as we introduce automation into the economy, but what are we going to do when the immigrants chose to leave of their own accord and vacate jobs that cannot be automated? If you want to reduce immigrants you need to plan the economy to work without them.

I note you only want to cut EU immigration but non-EU immigration is currently controllable and rising.

I think you can get migrant labour without offering residency rights though Bob.

In fact, there's often a good balance.

I've worked with loads of Indian tech workers over recent decades. The average ones come here; and go back home after doing a stint.

The good ones I am happy to sponsor. One is acquiring venture capital money right now, with ambitious tech plans, and I'm all for it.

To me this is the very essence of a dynamic labour market. We have too many low grade self employed jobs being created, just to allow some people to get around the 3 month rule. That's no ambition whatsoever.

kabayiri

BobQ wrote: »

...
The European Union is taking Hungary, Poland and also the Czech Republic to court over their refusal to accept EU mandatory quotas for asylum-seekers decided by a majority of member states in 2015."

Shouldn't someone ask the asylum seekers themselves where they want to go?

I remember many an interview when they came over, and there was a great clamour to take up the offer from Germany from them.

They might feel like they are being sold down the river if you force them into a hostile place like Poland, which might have quite different religious views.

No...Germany made the unilateral invite. Germany needs to accept the responsibility which comes with that.

System

kabayiri wrote: »

Whenever there is change there is money to be made. This fact is not lost on people outside these small islands.

If we can't rely on our government to embrace the future, we might as well look for other entrepreneurs, and places like USA have stacks of them.

The future isn't anybody under any terms.

The government are desperate for a 'win'. A crap deal to enter TPP (which the USA have left) might look tempting - our resident brexiteers will be heavy on fanfare and light on analysis.

The USA isn't coming to the rescue. If we struggle to get a decent deal with the EU despite them needing us more than we need them© there's no chance with the US with Trump in charge on an America First platform.