Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

GreatApe

kabayiri wrote: »

You vote to change your own situation I say.

You fix dysfunctions in yourself and your family or walk away from them to change your situation for the better. What the politicians do is a sideline to your life

cogito

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Italian Government dissolved today. Election still a couple of months away. With another weak coalition Government the likely outcome.

Maybe, maybe not. Renzi's PD party has tanked in the polls with 5 star ahead of it under new leadership. Lega Nord and Forza Italia are also polling strongly. The thing they have in common is Euroscepticism. I suspect that a coalition of at least two and maybe all three will be as strong as a ny Italian government ever can be and a thorn in the side of the EU. Not that they have a particularly strong hand given the level of Italian debt.

Moby

GreatApe wrote: »

The problem is this nonsense about pushing the bottom half to the periphery
It is reinforcing propaganda by the losers who want to take power so make this nonsense up.
You tell the bottom half the rich are screwing you and wind them up into hating 'the rich and by 'the rich' they actually mean anyone who votes for the current party in power.

The reality is that in developed countries like the USA UK Japan Western-Europe all the functional individuals and families live very good decent lives.

We have a good system. Free trade and capitalism is working very well the only people who are doing badly are the dysfunctional people/families but they would do badly in any system and under any party/government.

In the UK we have high wages full employment lots of freedom and opportunity.
Life is great in the UK. Ignore the propaganda about half the population being screwed by the system its BS

A complacent caricature and repeating it in post after post doesn't make it more true. The massive inequality capitalism is creating is destroying the fabric of our society. Anybody who doesn't spend their days sitting at a desk looking at a computer screen would see that. Do I want to be locked behind my security gates while the starving hordes riot? No.....that is sick! but that is the way we are going; people in the UK are more divided than they have been for many years.

Some see the Brexit vote as the 'safety valve' and think we are doing rather nicely and are a stable oasis of calm while EU land falls apart. Their perspective is probably defined by their own situation. They are probably boomers who have done their bit and are now living off a system rigged in their favour. Generation rent in contrast have to live with the reality that the benefits of economic growth over the last 10 years seem to have gone to the richest 1% only and that is why people are turning to things like Brexit and Corbyn. Brexit though offers the younger generations nada! Do people seriously believe that loons like Gove, Fox and Johnson can be trusted to look after the interests of 'generation rent'......talk about putting the Fox in charge of the hen coop! No capitalism itself is broke my friends and we need to have a drastic rethink of how it works and consider ideas such as taxing wealth (rather than income), seriously cracking down on tax avoidance etc.

If you think free market capitalism is generally good for the vast bulk of people I suggest you read up about the exploitation of workers during the industrial revolution in England in the late 17th and 18th century.

Until the government introduced regulations life for most workers was actually pretty horrid – although the small cartel of factory owners, merchants and bankers got very rich. Businessmen just naturally form oligopolies to cement their position. Just read your Adam Smith!

Only governments can break those self interested cartels up and only democracies will elect governments with the mandate to do so. It isn’t a coincidence that the two democracies that have gone the furthest towards free market capitalism (USA and the UK) are also the two most dysfunctional and divided. I agree there is a disenfranchised 40% but the well off boomer generation for whom the system worked do their less off brethren no favours by blaming the immigrants. That is far too simplistic. Unregulated capitalism is the real problem and that is not the EU's fault.The capitalist employers will always look to cut costs wherever they can and a cheap supply of immigrant labour is bound to be an attractive option to maximise profit. It was Thatcher who gave a speech in 1988 lauding free movement of people goods and services. Like a good capitalist she saw this as reducing the cost of labour. I wish people would look at their history a tad more.

By contrast democracies with models where capitalism is much more controlled by the state like Scandinavia, Canada and Germany seem to be much more cohesive.

vivatifosi

gfplux wrote: »

Vivatifosi you have been busy. So much, too much information. Be very careful we could become well informed on the subject!
All of my life I have resisted the siren calls of the conspiracy theorists, but, it is difficult to believe that the impact reports published by David Davis are the real thing.
I either have to believe that the department for leaving the EU headed by Davis but containing some very clever civil servants is INCOMPETENT!
Which goes against my beliefs and experience in and of the British Civil service.

Or there is actually a CONSPIRACY.

What are we to believe.

I have written a fair few sector reports in my time. Not for governments, more for mid sized companies interested in their position and the opportunities and threats.

When I read the government reports, I thought they looked so rushed and scant, that if I was to produce something like that I wouldn't be paid. I didn't read all of them, but what I did read was pretty poor. The finance sub sector one in particular, just four pages, but the majority of the first page contains the same standard preamble. Beyond that are no real numbers.

I have to think that they are heavily redacted. If not, then that's too scary to contemplate.

I do keep looking for new info though, as that's how I will learn whether Brexit is or isn't a good idea.

ukcarper

Moby wrote: »

A complacent caricature and repeating it in post after post doesn't make it more true. The massive inequality capitalism is creating is destroying the fabric of our society. Anybody who doesn't spend their days sitting at a desk looking at a computer screen would see that. Do I want to be locked behind my security gates while the starving hordes riot? No.....that is sick! but that is the way we are going; people in the UK are more divided than they have been for many years.

Some see the Brexit vote as the 'safety valve' and think we are doing rather nicely and are a stable oasis of calm while EU land falls apart. Their perspective is probably defined by their own situation. They are probably boomers who have done their bit and are now living off a system rigged in their favour. Generation rent in contrast have to live with the reality that the benefits of economic growth over the last 10 years seem to have gone to the richest 1% only and that is why people are turning to things like Brexit and Corbyn. Brexit though offers the younger generations nada! Do people seriously believe that loons like Gove, Fox and Johnson can be trusted to look after the interests of 'generation rent'......talk about putting the Fox in charge of the hen coop! No capitalism itself is broke my friends and we need to have a drastic rethink of how it works and consider ideas such as taxing wealth (rather than income), seriously cracking down on tax avoidance etc.

If you think free market capitalism is generally good for the vast bulk of people I suggest you read up about the exploitation of workers during the industrial revolution in England in the late 17th and 18th century.

Until the government introduced regulations life for most workers was actually pretty horrid – although the small cartel of factory owners, merchants and bankers got very rich. Businessmen just naturally form oligopolies to cement their position. Just read your Adam Smith!

Only governments can break those self interested cartels up and only democracies will elect governments with the mandate to do so. It isn’t a coincidence that the two democracies that have gone the furthest towards free market capitalism (USA and the UK) are also the two most dysfunctional and divided. I agree there is a disenfranchised 40% but the well off boomer generation for whom the system worked do their less off brethren no favours by blaming the immigrants. That is far too simplistic. Unregulated capitalism is the real problem and that is not the EU's fault.The capitalist employers will always look to cut costs wherever they can and a cheap supply of immigrant labour is bound to be an attractive option to maximise profit. It was Thatcher who gave a speech in 1988 lauding free movement of people goods and services. Like a good capitalist she saw this as reducing the cost of labour. I wish people would look at their history a tad more.

By contrast democracies with models where capitalism is much more controlled by the state like Scandinavia, Canada and Germany seem to be much more cohesive.

How is the system rigged in the boomers favour, OK their homes might be worth more but does that really benefit them, that’s more likely to benefit their children or grandchildren. A large number have had their retirement age increased and low interest rates are of no benefit to those who have or are about to retire. You made some valid points but spoil it by having yet another rant at the older generation.

Herzlos

Are many boomers young enough to have been affected by a delayed pension age?

ukcarper

Herzlos wrote: »

Are many boomers young enough to have been affected by a delayed pension age?

Yes the majority of boomers have not reached retirement age.

Moby

ukcarper wrote: »

How is the system rigged in the boomers favour, OK their homes might be worth more but does that really benefit them, that’s more likely to benefit their children or grandchildren. A large number have had their retirement age increased and low interest rates are of no benefit to those who have or are about to retire. You made some valid points but spoil it by having yet another rant at the older generation.

Like you I think I'm one of them and there are issues such as low interest rates and the increased pension age but overall I think the next generation following us will be the first that's poorer than their parents. I had university education paid for by the taxpayer and at least a chance of buying a property without saddling myself with a lifetime of debt. Pensions are triple locked by a Govmt that knows older people vote in higher numbers than the young. I hope young people now find their voice and change things because there is no balance imo!

GreatApe

Moby wrote: »

A complacent caricature and repeating it in post after post doesn't make it more true. The massive inequality capitalism is creating is destroying the fabric of our society. Anybody who doesn't spend their days sitting at a desk looking at a computer screen would see that. Do I want to be locked behind my security gates while the starving hordes riot? No.....that is sick! but that is the way we are going; people in the UK are more divided than they have been for many years.

What inequality? We have a great fair legal system and we have fair police and we have a good armed forces and we have comparatively little corruption and bribery and fair courts.

What you mean is there is a large difference in incomes and wealth.
Firstly I would say that exists everywhere. Do you think Stalin was living like the peasants under him? Do you think Kim looks like he is starving while his people die of famines?
More importantly I would argue that in a free market system like we have there is no big fundamental differences in your life if you are average or rich. A rich person drinks a £500 bottle of wine an average person drinks a £5 bottle of wine. A rich person goes out to a restaurant and spends £500 on a steak while an average person buys the ingredients in Tesco and cooks it at home. A rich person lives in a 200sqm home in Kensington that costs £10 million while an average person lives in a 100sqm home in stoke for £0.1 million. A rich person drives a £50k BMW while an average person drives a £5k second hand BMW. A rich person has a £50,000 handbag with some name of some designer on it an average person has a £50 handbag from M&S. A rich person gets a haricut from some famous stylist for £5000 an average person gets a haircut from

This is the great thing about free markets. It produces good quality goods and services at all price points

Some see the Brexit vote as the 'safety valve' and think we are doing rather nicely and are a stable oasis of calm while EU land falls apart. Their perspective is probably defined by their own situation. They are probably boomers who have done their bit and are now living off a system rigged in their favour.

Sure the old have more than the young its how life works.
Just yesterday one of my friends complained that they have so little compared to their parents I had to point out to him that his parents had a combined 80 years of work and savings under them while he only had 5 years work and savings under him. Comparing a couple with 80 years income vs a single man with 5 years income is stupid. Also the old cant take it to the grave they had the young ~£200 billion annually.

Generation rent in contrast have to live with the reality that the benefits of economic growth over the last 10 years seem to have gone to the richest 1% only and that is why people are turning to things like Brexit and Corbyn. Brexit though offers the younger generations nada! Do people seriously believe that loons like Gove, Fox and Johnson can be trusted to look after the interests of 'generation rent'......talk about putting the Fox in charge of the hen coop!

Generation rent is fake propaganda
Only 3% of bits rent privately for more than 10 years.
97% of brits either buy their own home or are given a social house.

The reason private renting boomed post 2004 was the mass migration post 2004 once brexit is done if migration levels fall so will private renting stats

No capitalism itself is broke my friends and we need to have a drastic rethink of how it works and consider ideas such as taxing wealth (rather than income), seriously cracking down on tax avoidance etc.

Capitalism works very very well we have no poor people in the UK due to the economy. We do have poor people due to their dysfunctional lives. We have high wages full employment lots of freedom and opportunity. The glass is 95%+ full your confirmation bias makes you see it otherwise

If you think free market capitalism is generally good for the vast bulk of people I suggest you read up about the exploitation of workers during the industrial revolution in England in the late 17th and 18th century.

There is no point looking before 1950 the eletricity revolution of 1940-1980 changed everything. Also is it not amazing you need to search back 300-400 years to find fault with capitalism?

Until the government introduced regulations life for most workers was actually pretty horrid –

No you silly man. Life was horrid 300-400 years ago because we had not developed much science technology and capital.

although the small cartel of factory owners, merchants and bankers got very rich.

Yes there were some rich people. That does not mean it would have been better without factories. Also had these people given up all their wealth to charity you do realize the poor would still be poor simply because nobody really had anything back then. You watch BBC fantasy drama about 300-400 years ago with pretty young ladies and gents in nice attire perfect bodies and lovely clean teeth. The reality would be closer to rotten teeth stench you could not bear parasites on most people and short life expectancy with women having 5-15 kids until their bodies could not take it no more or until one of the births killed them.

Businessmen just naturally form oligopolies to cement their position.

Well break them up if you are sure of their monopoly positions. Capitalism tries to do that, communism has just one big company called the state and it dictates and command and controls you and everything in it.

Only governments can break those self interested cartels up and only democracies will elect governments with the mandate to do so. It isn’t a coincidence that the two democracies that have gone the furthest towards free market capitalism (USA and the UK) are also the two most dysfunctional and divided. I agree there is a disenfranchised 40% but the well off boomer generation for whom the system worked do their less off brethren no favours by blaming the immigrants. That is far too simplistic. Unregulated capitalism is the real problem and that is not the EU's fault.The capitalist employers will always look to cut costs wherever they can and a cheap supply of immigrant labour is bound to be an attractive option to maximise profit. It was Thatcher who gave a speech in 1988 lauding free movement of people goods and services. Like a good capitalist she saw this as reducing the cost of labour. I wish people would look at their history a tad more.

Why would businesses or businessmen want the country to import low skilled migrants from eastern Europe? They are not think they know all the taxes are paid by the rich and businesses so while they might be able to hire someone for £8 per hour they will have to pay out another £10ph equivalent on their benefits via their taxes. This is why the right of the tories dont like free movement they dont want to pay even more taxes to get the low skill no English migrants upto speed. Not to mention multi multiculturalism is silly and dangerous.

By contrast democracies with models where capitalism is much more controlled by the state like Scandinavia, Canada and Germany seem to be much more cohesive.

You dont know that you are just spouting
Also Germany Canada have as much free markets as we do both also roughly tax and spend the same.
Scandinavia is lucky to have large natural resources that allow more communism locally. Its not like Norway gives its oil for free or subsidized prices to foreign countries no they want full price in fact more than full price thanks to the arabs holding back production to artificially keep prices high for all net oil sellers like norway. Its not like Sweden exports its huge hydropower for subsidised prices to the rest of europe no they want full price. With these large natural resources per capita they can afford more social programs. So could we if you know someone in the UK we can pipe out 10 million barrels per day tell us and we can do more social programs if you dont know anywhere we can find that much oil in the UK then keep quiet about the norway model which runs off the back of luck (good fortune to have oil) and rigged markets (the arabs keeping oil prices higher than they need to be)

GreatApe

Moby wrote: »

Like you I think I'm one of them and there are issues such as low interest rates and the increased pension age but overall I think the next generation following us will be the first that's poorer than their parents. I had university education paid for by the taxpayer and at least a chance of buying a property without saddling myself with a lifetime of debt. Pensions are triple locked by a Govmt that knows older people vote in higher numbers than the young. I hope young people now find their voice and change things because there is no balance imo!

The next generation wont be poorer than their parents its one of those fake news items

The reason is while their parents got cheap housing, they will get free housing via gifts and inheritances. The old leave the young about £200 billion annually which is equivalent capital to buy outright 1 million homes per year.

The young will also earn more than their parents over their lifetimes in real terms. The lefties like to look at two very specific points of data. The peak of the last bubble in 2007 compared to today mid point in a cycle and cry that real earnings are lower (just) and because of that the sky is falling down. Well yes cherry pick dates and you can paint any picture you like. Why not look at 1997 vs 2017? Why not look at 2009 vs 2017? Why not look at 2010 vs 2020? All of those are likely to show good increases in real income. No lets look at the peak quarter of the last bubble compared to today and lets also forget about the natural headwinds like oil and gas production falling off a lot between 2007-2017 and pretend its all down to them ebil tories