Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

gfplux

vivatifosi wrote: »

Gfplux, remember we were discussing how scant the impact reports were? Have found some more useful links courtesy of Channel 4 Fact check. Each link goes to a different pdf.

Reports linked to:
Fair Brexit for Consumers: British Retail Consortium
A Food Brexit, on food availability and security, published by a few UK universities
ABTA report on impact of Brexit on travel and tourism
Norton Rose Fullbright report on North Sea oil
Kings Fund report on Brexit and healthcare
EU Parliament report on financial services

https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/dont-bother-reading-todays-brexit-papers-these-six-reports-will-tell-you-more

Vivatifosi you have been busy. So much, too much information. Be very careful we could become well informed on the subject!
All of my life I have resisted the siren calls of the conspiracy theorists, but, it is difficult to believe that the impact reports published by David Davis are the real thing.
I either have to believe that the department for leaving the EU headed by Davis but containing some very clever civil servants is INCOMPETENT!
Which goes against my beliefs and experience in and of the British Civil service.

Or there is actually a CONSPIRACY.

What are we to believe.

ukcarper

Herzlos wrote: »

Because May is doing such a good job of it?

What's wrong with having a leader that cares about human rights and helping everyone, rather than a party that doesn't even feel rental properties need to be fit for human habitation.

Anyway; Corbyn actually wants to leave the EU whilst May doesn't. The economy is going to be destroyed anyway.

Nothing wrong if they have realistic policies. You believe the experts that tell us brexit will be a disaster but when those some experts tell us Corbyn’s policies are unaffordable and will not raise the money he claims you don’t believe them.

qwert_yuiop

Herzlos wrote: »

Anyway; Corbyn actually wants to leave the EU whilst May doesn't.

Correct. Thank you. I cannot understand why this is not talked about.

System

Rough_Justice wrote: »

For those who like polls (which this time I reckon won't include so many of the "remain" persuasion), this is from YouGov's latest:
"Polling conducted in the run-up to Christmas reveals support for staying in the European Union has collapsed to just 39 per cent."

I'd be one of the 61% and I'm of the remain persuasion (whatever you think that means).

The UK has been doing nothing but navel gazing since around the time of the Scottish referendum in 2014. Brexit is just the latest excuse to contemplate our navels.

I think we need to get on with it, let the puce faced shouters have their day, watch them fail and then invite them to pull their necks in and shut up.

System

The Times are reporting that Davis has been sidelined. I think we already knew this as it was widely reported that the breakthrough negotiations were conducted by Mrs. May and Olly Robbins.

May as well close down DEXEU. It's a white elephant where they can't fill the vacancies and headed by a fantasist.

The Express suggesting it's a betrayal.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/897240/brexit-david-davis-eu-conservative-theresa-may-oliver-robbins-michel-barnier

kabayiri

ukcarper wrote: »

Nothing wrong if they have realistic policies. You believe the experts that tell us brexit will be a disaster but when those some experts tell us Corbyn’s policies are unaffordable and will not raise the money he claims you don’t believe them.

If Corbyn ends up in power with a small majority he will be equally trapped.

Trapped by expectations and suspicion on all sides.

The unions will demand their cut. The students will want debts cancelled. The struggling will want cheap gas and leccy and transport. The market will worry about their foreign investors. The rich will worry about fighting for the best avoidance accountants.

It's just lucky we have a big sovereign wealth fund to draw upon...err, we don't. Ooops.

Corbyn talks like a campaigner in the 70s, but he will have to operate in a world which has moved on.

kabayiri

ilovehouses wrote: »

...
I think we need to get on with it, let the puce faced shouters have their day, watch them fail and then invite them to pull their necks in and shut up.

Why do you think that would happen?

Let's face it. The political classes in London lost the respect of the voters in the NE and Scotland a while back.

Why wouldn't we see more overtly regional political parties like the SNP?

I agree that the Brexit referendum was a counter to the growing right voice within the Conservative party. In some ways it worked....look at where UKIP are now. (Not to say they could not resurface)

System

kabayiri wrote: »

Why do you think that would happen?

Let's face it. The political classes in London lost the respect of the voters in the NE and Scotland a while back.

Why wouldn't we see more overtly regional political parties like the SNP?

I agree that the Brexit referendum was a counter to the growing right voice within the Conservative party. In some ways it worked....look at where UKIP are now. (Not to say they could not resurface)

I suspect populism has peaked and the protest parties and the SNP are in decline. If we've not seen, say, a NE local party (for local people) in conditions that were perfect for such a thing the time has passed.

There's a real chance we might see Johnson or Rees-Mogg as PM - brexit has been a boon for the London political classes.

kabayiri

ilovehouses wrote: »

I suspect populism has peaked and the protest parties and the SNP are in decline. If we've not seen, say, a NE local party (for local people) in conditions that were perfect for such a thing the time has passed.

There's a real chance we might see Johnson or Rees-Mogg as PM - brexit has been a boon for the London political classes.

I was listening to the Mark Blyth lectures, and he seemed to be able to put it into a wider context.

Across many parts of the West, there are people who feel left behind.

I don't know what the answer is. Do you trust ever larger unions like the EU, where size = might?

Do you follow the SNP mantra and opine that only local politicians understand the needs of their voters?

Is it really a lost cause for some? No politician would admit to that.

I'm pretty sure BoJo isn't going to fix things.

System

kabayiri wrote: »

I was listening to the Mark Blyth lectures, and he seemed to be able to put it into a wider context.

Across many parts of the West, there are people who feel left behind.

I don't know what the answer is. Do you trust ever larger unions like the EU, where size = might?

Do you follow the SNP mantra and opine that only local politicians understand the needs of their voters?

Is it really a lost cause for some? No politician would admit to that.

I'm pretty sure BoJo isn't going to fix things.

Honestly, I think it's being overthought. The politics of navel gazing and populism require a particular interest in finding points of difference. It's human nature to think that current change is a new paradigm and can be extrapolated into the future. It'll pass.

It's why in recessions people start going on about burying silver and hiding baked beans.

It's really quite simple. If the good people of the NE have fallen out of love with the London political classes they need to stop voting for them and vote for people who they think are going to do a better job of representing them.