Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

economic

Forgot the fx conversion but still same result given it’s still in the 1000x magnitude difference

GreatApe

economic wrote: »

Negligible impact in the pound. There’s about 5tn dollars traded everyday in the fx market. Even if only 1% of that is sterling (impossible) that’s 50bn a day vs 33.33mn sterling a day sent to eu. Less then a thousandth of the daily volume. No impact on sterling.

That is like saying the value of the pound is purely set by speculation which is undoubtedly true in the short term but Long term it must be economic performance and balance of trade.

Also for FX to be that big a number I am sure most of it must be very short term speculation perhaps only on the order of seconds or minutes.

I think this £10 billion a year is quite significant.
Think of it this way what happens to the currency of petro states when oil moves up or down a lot. Russian ruble lost half its value alongside oil. Roughly speaking the Russians lost 10% of their 2014 GDP to the oil slide but their currency lost closer to 60% of its value.

The lost oil income was probably tiny compared to daily FX trade but daily FX is just mostly a two way dance while the lost oil income was a real one way move. Likewise sure the pound might be £50 billion a day FX trade but its mostly a two way dance. The £10 billion a year not flowing to the EU is a real one way move.

Obviously import export changes are bigger and more important but this £10 billion is going to play a part more money in the UK to cut taxes but also a slight bump up in the pound compared to what it otherwise would be.

GreatApe

Arklight wrote: »

Congratulations, you’ve won the fantasy jingoism pools. Your prize is a ten percent reduction on a disabled person's bedroom tax and month's unsanctioned benefits.

Only kidding, no one gets that.

Have some GDP boosting corporate welfare with some non existent trickle down effect, there’s plenty of that.

The UK is a great country no amount of lefty bile will change the fact we have virtually no poverty, full employment, lots of freedom and opportunity. Life is great in this country and the best time to be born is today

vivatifosi

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Has to winners and losers. That's a very basic fact.

10% of the EU's budget is spent on the European Social Fund. For all intents and purposes. It's aim is to pass money from the wealthiest regions to help the poorest. While the UK has deprived areas, not on the scale of the Eastern or Southern States.

The UK did receive funding for many of its poorer regions until the eastern European states joined. Part of the reason they joined is because Tony Blair in particular petitioned for the EU's expansion.

Herzlos

GreatApe wrote: »

The UK is a great country no amount of lefty bile will change the fact we have virtually no poverty, full employment, lots of freedom and opportunity. Life is great in this country and the best time to be born is today

The growth in food bank use is a lefty myth then?

Enterprise_1701C

GreatApe wrote: »

The UK is a great country no amount of lefty bile will change the fact we have virtually no poverty, full employment, lots of freedom and opportunity. Life is great in this country and the best time to be born is today

Totally agree, I love this country and what it allows us to do. We run our own business, we get assistance when we want it but most of the time we are allowed to do as we please (within the normal legal/tax bounds). It is indeed a wonderful time to live here.

Herzlos wrote: »

The growth in food bank use is a lefty myth then?

Poverty is defined differently in these days, many years ago poverty was begging on the streets and no food in your belly, no heating, no TV, no nothing. These days poverty means you can afford your Sky subscription and broadband but you have to go to the food bank for food. I am not saying everyone is like that, but some people that complain they have no money whilst smoking and drinking seriously have to reconsider the way they spend their money.

I think what made my mind up about peoples attitudes is the time I was standing outside school listening to this woman who was in designer clothes and trainers, the size of the back end of a bus, and chain smoking, she was complaining that the council would not give her any more money for school uniform. OK, maybe her size might have been medical, but I am pretty sure she was smoking enough money to pay for several years' worth of school uniform.

And yes, I know I will get attacked for this, but surely people that want help should be required to help themselves first, they should be given lessons in money management, and helped to stop smoking. And yes, I do have other experience of this, a friend of mine has a grandson, his mother smokes heavily and often "cannot afford" to feed her son, she would be at the food bank if my friend did not sub her.

So maybe the growth of food banks is somewhat related to the "me first" culture you see these days.

economic

Herzlos wrote: »

The growth in food bank use is a lefty myth then?

How many people use food banks currently?

economic

Enterprise_1701C wrote: »

Totally agree, I love this country and what it allows us to do. We run our own business, we get assistance when we want it but most of the time we are allowed to do as we please (within the normal legal/tax bounds). It is indeed a wonderful time to live here.



Poverty is defined differently in these days, many years ago poverty was begging on the streets and no food in your belly, no heating, no TV, no nothing. These days poverty means you can afford your Sky subscription and broadband but you have to go to the food bank for food. I am not saying everyone is like that, but some people that complain they have no money whilst smoking and drinking seriously have to reconsider the way they spend their money.

I think what made my mind up about peoples attitudes is the time I was standing outside school listening to this woman who was in designer clothes and trainers, the size of the back end of a bus, and chain smoking, she was complaining that the council would not give her any more money for school uniform. OK, maybe her size might have been medical, but I am pretty sure she was smoking enough money to pay for several years' worth of school uniform.

And yes, I know I will get attacked for this, but surely people that want help should be required to help themselves first, they should be given lessons in money management, and helped to stop smoking. And yes, I do have other experience of this, a friend of mine has a grandson, his mother smokes heavily and often "cannot afford" to feed her son, she would be at the food bank if my friend did not sub her.

So maybe the growth of food banks is somewhat related to the "me first" culture you see these days.

Agree. There is no poverty in this country. By far most of society’s money problems come down to mental illness (addictions, depression, binge spending, gambling etc)

Herzlos

economic wrote: »

How many people use food banks currently?

Extrapolated to about 850,000 http://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/food-banks-uk-usage-public-health-crisis-latest-warning-trussell-trust-study-a8066231.html

gfplux

GreatApe wrote: »

The UK is a great country no amount of lefty bile will change the fact we have virtually no poverty, full employment, lots of freedom and opportunity. Life is great in this country and the best time to be born is today

The UK is a great country, sadly too much bile from all sides make it less great.
That bile has led to the one single thing that could bring Britain down, that being the decision to take the complex, difficult and painful process of leaving the EU.