Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Herzlos

Tromking wrote: »

I fear your peddling disinformation too. The alleged £500 million cost for the new blue passports is apparently fake news. A lot of it about.

I stand corrected on the passports. The cost is unrelated to the colour change.

I still admit to having no idea why anyone actually cares about the colour, especially enough to campaign about it.

Herzlos

gfplux wrote: »

That’s very interesting. Why did Theresa Brexit make such a huge announcement about it. Strange.

It's the only thing brexiteers want that she can actually deliver on.

Zero_Gravitas

Herzlos wrote: »

It's the only thing brexiteers want that she can actually deliver on.

And ironically she never needed to as there was no requirement for a maroon passport in the first place...

The £500 million figure is discussed on the BBC website:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42468938

Where Theresa May’s communications director “Robbie Gibb said deliberately misrepresenting government policies "harms our democracy".”

Call me old-fashioned, but I would have thought that lying about the existence of Brexit impact assessments on the economy could be considered a tiny misrepresentation...

GreatApe

So what was the answer to the question of what happens to the pound when we stop sending £1 billion a month to the EU? No need to fight about the exactly number, even if you feel it is half of that, what happens to the pound when we stop sending big net flows to the EU??

This is an important issue
While £10 billion is a small compared to UK GDP it is quite a large marginal change to the flow of capital so how much of a change to the value of the pound will it have?

I am not trying to suggest its going to be massive I have no idea it might be insignificant or it might be large. Any informed views?

Herzlos

A few points:

What billion quid a month?
Will we stop sending it to the eu? We haven't ruled out contribution in future.
It's small change and irrelevant; I doubt it'd make any noticeable difference from the point of view of the transaction. The value of gbp could change for any number of linked reasons.

buglawton

Maybe we'll end up like the Swiss. Per year they send around £50 per head to the EU while we send £120-ish. They are struggling with a very highly valued Swiss Franc.

Thrugelmir

buglawton wrote: »

Maybe we'll end up like the Swiss. Per year they send around £50 per head to the EU while we send £120-ish. They are struggling with a very highly valued Swiss Franc.

Swiss generate good incomes through allowing access to facilities such as Cern though.

Arklight

GreatApe wrote: »

So what was the answer to the question of what happens to the pound when we stop sending £1 billion a month to the EU? No need to fight about the exactly number, even if you feel it is half of that, what happens to the pound when we stop sending big net flows to the EU??

This is an important issue
While £10 billion is a small compared to UK GDP it is quite a large marginal change to the flow of capital so how much of a change to the value of the pound will it have?

I am not trying to suggest its going to be massive I have no idea it might be insignificant or it might be large. Any informed views?

You're saying we're sending a billion a month to the EU, while completely ignoring the fact that we are part of the EU.

This whole Brexit charade is a layer cake of ignorance projected by people who seem either incapable or unwilling to understand that we are, soon to be were, about 1/4 of everything that went on that mattered in the EU.

The only thing that Britain will be in 2019 is worse off.

Arklight

Rough_Justice wrote: »

More good news here:


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/12/22/gdp-grew-04pc-final-reading-third-quarter-says-ons/

And for last year and earlier:


https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/britain-draws-level-with-germany-but-will-it-win-on-penalties-h6h0z6cvc

Not bad for what so many here refer to as an insignificant little island.

Congratulations, you’ve won the fantasy jingoism pools. Your prize is a ten percent reduction on a disabled person's bedroom tax and month's unsanctioned benefits.

Only kidding, no one gets that.

Have some GDP boosting corporate welfare with some non existent trickle down effect, there’s plenty of that.

economic

GreatApe wrote: »

What impact would not sending £1 billion a month to the EU have on the pound?

Negligible impact in the pound. There’s about 5tn dollars traded everyday in the fx market. Even if only 1% of that is sterling (impossible) that’s 50bn a day vs 33.33mn sterling a day sent to eu. Less then a thousandth of the daily volume. No impact on sterling.