Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

cogito

Arklight wrote: »

Varoufakis loves speaking tours and the sound of his own voice. He’s somewhat quieter on the fact that Schauble offered Greece a €40bn pay off to leave the Eurozone, remain in the EU, and still access development and crisis loans but Syriza didn’t take it because that would have involved them being responsible for Greece’s fortunes, rather than blaming everything on Germany for perpetuity.

Not so. It's well known that Schauble believed that the solution to Greece's problems was to cut them loose from the Eurozone and suggested a Marshall Plan type of support but he was never in a position to make any such offer. Merkel killed the idea stone dead, mainly because it would signal that the Euro was not forever and would encourage massive speculation against the currency which could have brought it down. It's in the book if you care to read it.

economic

mrginge wrote: »

Nobody with any credibility would attempt to use an absolute measure to describe UK poverty levels.

Then how should we measure it?

Relative? So we are comparing what someone on food stamps with a CEO on millions a year? Sure one is probably poor, the other is rich. But that does not mean the poor person is in poverty. He has food and a roof over his head. We have a nation that can afford to support people like that (even though more should be done to stop those abusing the food stamp and general benefits culture).

kabayiri

gfplux wrote: »

....
It reported a 28% fall in the number of cars produced for the UK market in November compared to the same month in 2016.
...

I've spent far too much time in recent weeks in the dealerships of what you might describe as moderately upmarket cars (BMW, Audi, Mercedes, Jaguar). Yes...not a good time to be shopping for a car, but...

The *biggest* grumble they all have is the step change in VED once the list price of a car rises above £40K.

It doesn't take many options to push even a modest 5-series over that figure, and when you are faced with £450 per year road tax for 5 years compared with £120 per year, it's an inhibitor.

Wait until April next year for the MAT figures, and you will see what I mean.

kabayiri

cogito wrote: »

Not so. It's well known that Schauble believed that the solution to Greece's problems was to cut them loose from the Eurozone and suggested a Marshall Plan type of support but he was never in a position to make any such offer. Merkel killed the idea stone dead, mainly because it would signal that the Euro was not forever and would encourage massive speculation against the currency which could have brought it down. It's in the book if you care to read it.

The historians who live and study 100 years from now will be some of the most privileged scholars I suggest.

They will be able to distill all that has happened to Earth plc between the 1970s and the 2020s, and put it into a wider context.

We can't because we are right in the middle of the change. Greece is just one chapter.

Eg : we bicker about relatively trivial domestic political figures, without seeing the big power shift move to international corporations and away from nation states.

gfplux

kabayiri wrote: »

I've spent far too much time in recent weeks in the dealerships of what you might describe as moderately upmarket cars (BMW, Audi, Mercedes, Jaguar). Yes...not a good time to be shopping for a car, but...

The *biggest* grumble they all have is the step change in VED once the list price of a car rises above £40K.

It doesn't take many options to push even a modest 5-series over that figure, and when you are faced with £450 per year road tax for 5 years compared with £120 per year, it's an inhibitor.

Wait until April next year for the MAT figures, and you will see what I mean.

I don’t know what MAT figures are. At Google Central the first page has nothing related to motoring.
I am assuming your research suggests that the sales of “moderately upmarket cars” have not fallen as the sales people are complaining they are not selling as many expensive extras.
Does that mean the fall in sales in the UK is confined to cheaper brand cars.

kabayiri

gfplux wrote: »

I don’t know what MAT figures are. At Google Central the first page has nothing related to motoring.
..

Moving Annual Total (MAT).

We need to get beyond one year of the new charge introduction (April 2017), to start see true patterns.

I don't need to access Google when the Fleet providers have a massive database of info - lets leave it at that on here.

On a broader note, the consumer has taken much of the slack since Brexit, and the downturn was always going to come.

GreatApe

mrginge wrote: »

Nobody with any credibility would attempt to use an absolute measure to describe UK poverty levels.

Is a single mother 30kg obese with two large dogs and a pretend business to rake in tax credits poor by any metric? Is she poot if she then goes on a TV program to cry not just poverty but that she is starving?

We have no poverty in the UK. We have a great country with Hugh wages and full employment lots of freedom and opportunity.

That does not mean everything is perfect but it means the glass is 95% full

Most the problems people have in the UK are due to addictions and dysfunctional families. Those things can and do lead to people living !!!! lives. Its got nothing to do with tax levels or the Roch vs the poor.

mrginge

economic wrote: »

Then how should we measure it?

Relative? So we are comparing what someone on food stamps with a CEO on millions a year? Sure one is probably poor, the other is rich. But that does not mean the poor person is in poverty. He has food and a roof over his head. We have a nation that can afford to support people like that (even though more should be done to stop those abusing the food stamp and general benefits culture).

I can just imagine the look on your face if your boss declared that your salary was now going to based on equivalent role pay and cost of living in Somalia.

economic

mrginge wrote: »

I can just imagine the look on your face if your boss declared that your salary was now going to based on equivalent role pay and cost of living in Somalia.

Huh/? what are you even trying to say with this?

Thrugelmir

kabayiri wrote: »

On a broader note, the consumer has taken much of the slack since Brexit, and the downturn was always going to come.

More like post GFC. As it's been the services sector that's underpinned growth in the UK. Aided by a growing population. Longer term was always unsustainable. The squeeze on wage growth, increasing levels of auto emrollment pension contributions and higher interest rates will maintain huge downward pressure. That's without further tax rises to bridge the budget deficit gap. With higher rates bills in the future something that's slipped under the radar in the last week. Councils having the ability to increase them by as much as 5.99% next year.