Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

ukcarper

Herzlos wrote: »

But if we don't get a good deal, what are our choices? Take the bad deal or re-join the EU under whatever new terms they give us?

I'm well aware people won't be happy about not leaving the EU, and losing our opt-outs, but that could still be better than WTO or EU-in-all-but-name.

We've seen the deals on the table, and with our red lines, none of them are particularly good. We'll spend another year talking around the edges but I bet come March 2019 our options will look the same as presented to us already:

* WTO
* Canada

And if we're willing to bend on the FoM, ECJ and maintenance contributions:
* Norway
* Remain

The problem you have is that all along we’ve been told by the remain side that it would be a disaster if we leave and people still voted leave, to get a sizeable enough reversal to reverse decision you would have to convince a very large number of leave voters.

I voted remain but if it meant going in Euro I would vote leave and I think many remainers think the same, I wonder where we would be now if we were in Euro and did not have control over our interest rates.

ukcarper

vivatifosi wrote: »

I still think we will end up with something at the EFTA/EEA end of the scale, even if it is sold to us as Canada ++.

Whatever it is called, I can see aspects such as the four freedoms or the ECJ, and legislation on standards lurking in the background.

I still think we should go for EFTA and play the long game. It is by persuading other nations that there is life outside of the EU but in a body that is more minded to economic cooperation and less political. That's how you get more like minded nations such as the Nordic nations to come join you. This is of course much harder for countries that are in the EU and the Eurozone, such as the Netherlands.

As things stand I do not see other countries following us.

What do you mean by lurking in the background, I think it will be very difficult to sell keeping all of 4 freedoms to leave voters.

Herzlos

ukcarper wrote: »

The problem you have is that all along we’ve been told by the remain side that it would be a disaster if we leave and people still voted leave, to get a sizeable enough reversal to reverse decision you would have to convince a very large number of leave voters.

True, you'd still have to sell it to some people who don't care but I don't think it'd be too hard a sell to get people to back staying in the EU when the real outcome is disaster. Lets be fair, a lot of the predictions coming from the Remain campaign were written off as doom-mongering, and will (hopefully) be viewed differently once they are confirmed. The Leave campaign worked on the premise that the EU needed us more*, and they'd let us have our cake and eat it (full EU access but without: FoM, payment or ECJ). I bet more Leavers would change their mind than you expect when giving a straight up choice between WTO/Canada/Remain.

I voted remain but if it meant going in Euro I would vote leave and I think many remainers think the same, I wonder where we would be now if we were in Euro and did not have control over our interest rates.

Would you still vote Leave if the choices were WTO or Remain and take the Euro? I understand that you don't want the Euro but you've presumably got a value trade off.


*Estimates are that hard brexit risks about 2% of EU GDP, and 12% of UK GDP. Who needs who more?

Herzlos

ukcarper wrote: »

What do you mean by lurking in the background, I think it will be very difficult to sell keeping all of 4 freedoms to leave voters.

Only the ones you want to stop immigration above everything else. Even they might soften when they realize that we'll still have foreigners without the 4 freedoms.

vivatifosi

ukcarper wrote: »

What do you mean by lurking in the background, I think it will be very difficult to sell keeping all of 4 freedoms to leave voters.

If we want Canada ++, how will this be achieved? Can you see the EU rolling over and saying "That's ok Britain, we can forego our standards, ECJ dispute resolution and the four freedoms"? They can't sell that to the rest of the EU and therein lies the problem.

There could be compromise on the 4Fs as these have morphed over time, for example having a right to come here for work but to have to earn the right to claim benefits over a qualifying period. But I can't see them being removed entirely.

ukcarper

Herzlos wrote: »

Only the ones you want to stop immigration above everything else. Even they might soften when they realize that we'll still have foreigners without the 4 freedoms.

That’s just one of the 4 freedoms and a large majority just want to control immigration not stop it. Do you personally know anybody who voted leave I personally know lots of people who voted leave so have a good idea of why they voted leave.

ukcarper

vivatifosi wrote: »

If we want Canada ++, how will this be achieved? Can you see the EU rolling over and saying "That's ok Britain, we can forego our standards, ECJ dispute resolution and the four freedoms"? They can't sell that to the rest of the EU and therein lies the problem.

There could be compromise on the 4Fs as these have morphed over time, for example having a right to come here for work but to have to earn the right to claim benefits over a qualifying period. But I can't see them being removed entirely.

I think we will have to make sure anything we sell to EU will have to meet there standards but that doesn’t have to apply to things sold elsewhere. I will be very surprised if the EU cave it completely but keeping 4 freedoms as they are now will be difficult to sell to leave voters, that’s not to say that it might be possible to sell a watered down version.

ukcarper

Herzlos wrote: »

True, you'd still have to sell it to some people who don't care but I don't think it'd be too hard a sell to get people to back staying in the EU when the real outcome is disaster. Lets be fair, a lot of the predictions coming from the Remain campaign were written off as doom-mongering, and will (hopefully) be viewed differently once they are confirmed. The Leave campaign worked on the premise that the EU needed us more*, and they'd let us have our cake and eat it (full EU access but without: FoM, payment or ECJ). I bet more Leavers would change their mind than you expect when giving a straight up choice between WTO/Canada/Remain.



Would you still vote Leave if the choices were WTO or Remain and take the Euro? I understand that you don't want the Euro but you've presumably got a value trade off.


*Estimates are that hard brexit risks about 2% of EU GDP, and 12% of UK GDP. Who needs who more?

WTO giving up control of our own monetary policy is a step to far in my opinion especially considering the diversity of EU countries.

Herzlos

ukcarper wrote: »

I think we will have to make sure anything we sell to EU will have to meet there standards but that doesn’t have to apply to things sold elsewhere. I will be very surprised if the EU cave it completely but keeping 4 freedoms as they are now will be difficult to sell to leave voters, that’s not to say that it might be possible to sell a watered down version.

Theoretically you can build EU stuff to EU standards and RoW stuff to some other standards, but realistically most people will just build to a common standard. Otherwise you need to have duplicate production facilities, staff training, stock management, and need extra checks to make sure the right thing is being built for the right market.

Potentially for cars, you could have a domestic market version with less safety/emissions stuff added on (just missing some production steps), which may be more possible with smart factories, but beyond that it's just not likely to make any economic sense.

The only real savings is for stuff that is never going to go to the EU, where they can drop standards a bit. For everything else it most likely means mirroring EU standards without having any say in them.

Herzlos

ukcarper wrote: »

WTO giving up control of our own monetary policy is a step to far in my opinion especially considering the diversity of EU countries.

Fair enough. Personally I'd give up a lot to avoid WTO. I honestly can't think of many situations where the WTO is the lesser of the 2 evils.