Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

System

cogito wrote: »

My mother in law voted remain and she doesn't even know what a euro is.

Yep. It's stupid. My thoughts on the referendum happening in the first place are all in my history, it's ridiculous to ask people who aren't informed.

The point is, assuming the entire 52% want the same brexit is silly. It simply can't be true.

System

Oh !!!!!! Mayo has been banned. Can everyone just stop wetting yourselves and reporting people?

vivatifosi

kabayiri wrote: »

The calling of the GE was poorly handled I do think. Why May chose controversial manifesto elements I will never know.

It's the only real evidence we have of her administration and how focussed they are. All the EU detailed discussion is, as you say, kept from our gaze.

There are other hints too kab. David Davis completing negotiations and then sticking his foot in it by saying it could all be undone just raised the EU's hackles. It's as though he can't help himself.

Not even being able to discuss and confirm the direction of travel at cabinet is pretty poor too. Get over it. You all wanted the power and glory, now get on with the more difficult aspects of your job.

vivatifosi

Interesting summary from Bloomberg of the battle currently playing out between Poland and the EU.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-20/understanding-poland-s-battles-with-the-eu-quicktake-q-a

Really detailed and interesting info graphics, also.from Bloomberg, on the rise of the populist right in the EU nations and the interactive causes to the EU itself, as well as issues underlying:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-20/understanding-poland-s-battles-with-the-eu-quicktake-q-a

Herzlos

ukcarper wrote: »

Why people voted out and re-joining without exemptions it will be worse than now. You need to accept that we will be leaving and hope we can get a good deal.

But if we don't get a good deal, what are our choices? Take the bad deal or re-join the EU under whatever new terms they give us?

I'm well aware people won't be happy about not leaving the EU, and losing our opt-outs, but that could still be better than WTO or EU-in-all-but-name.

We've seen the deals on the table, and with our red lines, none of them are particularly good. We'll spend another year talking around the edges but I bet come March 2019 our options will look the same as presented to us already:

* WTO
* Canada

And if we're willing to bend on the FoM, ECJ and maintenance contributions:
* Norway
* Remain

bugslet

That kept me quiet for fifteen minutes viva, thank you for the links.

gfplux

mrginge wrote: »

Thanks gfplux.
You might have seen, earlier your bestie mayo was telling us about the disaster that’s awaiting us, but unfortunately she didn’t have the time to put some quantifiable numbers out there.

I see you’ve progressed onto ‘true horror’.
Any chance you could help us all out. I’d love to know what how long the recession will last, how much gdp will plummet by and how many jobs are going.
http://consilium.europa.eu/media/32236/15-euco-art50-guidelines-en.pdf
Remember how we all laughed at ‘project fear’. That was funny wasn’t it. Not now though, it’s deadly serious.

David Davis is a true horror at organisation, preparation and negotiating.
However the first shock horror of 2018 will be when the transition period turns out to end at December 31st 2020 not a full two years. The second shock horror will be when the transition details turn out to be exactly as the guidance/wish list published by the EU on 15th December 2017.
http://consilium.europa.eu/media/32236/15-euco-art50-guidelines-en.pdf

Other horrors will follow.

To your other questions.

How long will the recession last?
History will not describe it as a recession but a long slow decline.

How much will gdp plummet by?
A lot.

How many jobs will be lost?
A lot.

gfplux

kabayiri wrote: »

Has anyone in government or opposition actually asked that question?

It seems useful to know the answer.

As Government didn’t even ask what effect going through the lengthy and difficult process of leaving the EU would have on +50 industry’s I suspect they have not asked any other questions.
Consider that Cabinet are only NOW discussing what sort of trade deal Britain wants it would appear that Government does not want to ask any questions for fear of the answers.

gfplux

kabayiri wrote: »

The calling of the GE was poorly handled I do think. Why May chose controversial manifesto elements I will never know.

It's the only real evidence we have of her administration and how focussed they are. All the EU detailed discussion is, as you say, kept from our gaze.

Also consider that Theresa May was Home Secretary for six years (yes 6 years. May 2010 to July 2016) and immigration was a priority, in fact one of her personal priority’s.
Did Britain think that immigration had been handled well during that time?
I don’t think so given the result of the referendum and the mood in the streets.

Perhaps the detailed discussion on the demanding job of leaving the EU were taking place between professional civil servants of both side. However Britains lead negotiator David Davis has performed poorly.

vivatifosi

Herzlos wrote: »

But if we don't get a good deal, what are our choices? Take the bad deal or re-join the EU under whatever new terms they give us?

I'm well aware people won't be happy about not leaving the EU, and losing our opt-outs, but that could still be better than WTO or EU-in-all-but-name.

We've seen the deals on the table, and with our red lines, none of them are particularly good. We'll spend another year talking around the edges but I bet come March 2019 our options will look the same as presented to us already:

* WTO
* Canada

And if we're willing to bend on the FoM, ECJ and maintenance contributions:
* Norway
* Remain

I still think we will end up with something at the EFTA/EEA end of the scale, even if it is sold to us as Canada ++.

Whatever it is called, I can see aspects such as the four freedoms or the ECJ, and legislation on standards lurking in the background.

I still think we should go for EFTA and play the long game. It is by persuading other nations that there is life outside of the EU but in a body that is more minded to economic cooperation and less political. That's how you get more like minded nations such as the Nordic nations to come join you. This is of course much harder for countries that are in the EU and the Eurozone, such as the Netherlands.

As things stand I do not see other countries following us.