Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

tracey3596

Filo25 wrote: »

Tracey you seem to be under the impression that all of us on here who think that Brexit is a mistake on balance, think that the EU is a perfect institution and are as evangelical about supporting it as you seem to be about prescribing all of our country's ills to the institution of the EU

For the record I do not think the EU is a perfect institution, I believe it has many flaws (some reasonably serious), although I would say exactly the same about the UK itself.

I just happen to think we are economically better off in than we are likely to be after we leave.

Yes the EU has challenges to face but so does the UK and pretty much every other developed nation.

And in that you hit the nub of the matter because I, like many others, just happen to think that we will be better off economically out of the EU. Perhaps not immediately but certainly before too long.

BTW, your judgmentalism about what I think is no more than an attempt to decry sensible debate; what a shame it is that any intelligent person might need to stoop to such a low level rather than use evidence-based debate.
I no more proscribe "all of us on here who think that Brexit is a mistake on balance" in the same light as I classify all those who support our exit from the EU as being the same, either here or in the wider world.
Do not make the mistake of assuming that I "seem to be about prescribing all of our country's ills to the institution of the EU" and perhaps, if you can, re-read my posts rather than deliberately misinterpret as some have.
Like you I agree that the UK is not without fault.
Where we differ however is that I would prefer the faults to be attributable to us rather than caused by a domineering, protectionist and above all flawed so-called "union". At least we can as an independent country resolve our problems in a manner which suits us.

Since the referendum was announced and continuing even to this day the amount of pro-European or anti-Brexit rhetoric seen here and in our media is considerable.
By far the majority of this has proven to be completely false, so it should come as no surprise that so many question such "Project Fear"-type propagandist drivel.

Without even delving into the referendum lies (yes, on both sides) since then we have had, amongst others:
* Propaganda: Thousands of banking jobs leaving NOW in preparation for Brexit.
Reality: No significant movement of jobs as of yet.

* Propaganda: Europeans are leaving in droves.
Reality: "EU emigration increased by 28,000 to 123,000 in YE June 2017" (ONS Migration Statistics Quarterly Report: November 2017)

* Propaganda: Industry is suffering because of Brexit.
Reality: Both manufacturing and service industries continue to grow healthily.

Rather than continue what could be a long list, imagine if you can the emotions so many feel when repeatedly such lies are foisted upon us from every direction. No sooner has one lie been debunked than another surfaces - and is clutched with glee by some here.

If all was so doom-laden as these espousing their pro-EU message profess regarding Brexit and the UK really is going to be worse off out of the EU, why all the lies?
They certainly don't inspire me to see the EU as worthy of my loyalty.

From what we see in other EU countries it looks as if the public there are increasingly beginning to think likewise.

Filo25

tracey3596 wrote: »

And in that you hit the nub of the matter because I, like many others, just happen to think that we will be better off economically out of the EU. Perhaps not immediately but certainly before too long.

BTW, your judgmentalism about what I think is no more than an attempt to decry sensible debate; what a shame it is that any intelligent person might need to stoop to such a low level rather than use evidence-based debate.
I no more proscribe "all of us on here who think that Brexit is a mistake on balance" in the same light as I classify all those who support our exit from the EU as being the same, either here or in the wider world.
Do not make the mistake of assuming that I "seem to be about prescribing all of our country's ills to the institution of the EU" and perhaps, if you can, re-read my posts rather than deliberately misinterpret as some have.
Like you I agree that the UK is not without fault.
Where we differ however is that I would prefer the faults to be attributable to us rather than caused by a domineering, protectionist and above all flawed so-called "union". At least we can as an independent country resolve our problems in a manner which suits us.

Since the referendum was announced and continuing even to this day the amount of pro-European or anti-Brexit rhetoric seen here and in our media is considerable.
By far the majority of this has proven to be completely false, so it should come as no surprise that so many question such "Project Fear"-type propagandist drivel.

Without even delving into the referendum lies (yes, on both sides) since then we have had, amongst others:
* Propaganda: Thousands of banking jobs leaving NOW in preparation for Brexit.
Reality: No significant movement of jobs as of yet.

* Propaganda: Europeans are leaving in droves.
Reality: "EU emigration increased by 28,000 to 123,000 in YE June 2017" (ONS Migration Statistics Quarterly Report: November 2017)

* Propaganda: Industry is suffering because of Brexit.
Reality: Both manufacturing and service industries continue to grow healthily.

Rather than continue what could be a long list, imagine if you can the emotions so many feel when repeatedly such lies are foisted upon us from every direction. No sooner has one lie been debunked than another surfaces - and is clutched with glee by some here.

If all was so doom-laden as these espousing their pro-EU message profess regarding Brexit and the UK really is going to be worse off out of the EU, why all the lies?
They certainly don't inspire me to see the EU as worthy of my loyalty.

From what we see in other EU countries it looks as if the public there are increasingly beginning to think likewise.

If we are going to cherry pick lies from both sides of the referendum debate then we will be here all day. and I honestly have better things to do.

I have consistently said it was a terrible campaign filled with misinformation and outright lies on BOTH sides.

I don't think Brexit will lead to economic armageddon, I just think we will be poorer than we otherwise would be in most likely scenarios in the medium term..Just by looking at the impact of inflation and declining real wages then I would say most of us already are.

Herzlos

tracey3596 wrote: »

Irrelevant.
The point is that whilst members of the EU we are unable to formally discuss and/or arrange such a deal due to EU restrictions.

Because negotiations with eu members has to be fair to all members, and has to be agreed by all members. We're still a member, but I do agree we should have an exemption allowing us to talk trade as long as we're not signing anything until we've left. Whether anyone will want to talk trade with us until they know our relationship to the eu is another matter entirely.

Herzlos

cogito wrote: »

These fifty countries include global powerhouses like the Faroe Islands, San Marino, Kosovo and the Palestinian authority but not the likes of the USA, China, India and Brazil. In all its existence, the number of agreements this organisation has succeeded in negotiating less than one per annum.

Do you think we'll manage to average better than 1 agreement per annum?

Arklight

Honey_Badger wrote: »

I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but most countries in the world are independent. I can’t see how they have lost sovereignty, or how the UK could possibly lose sovereignty by being outside the EU.

Your comment “you Brexit people” shows very well your bias. I would have preferred to stay in a reformed EU, one without closer integration. It should have remained a trading alliance rather than an embrionic superstate.

No they aren’t.

Most countries in the world are client states of larger powers. The EU has managed to make European countries marginally independent of the United States. Despite the fact that there are around 55,000 American soldiers on permanent deployment. To 'protect' us from Russia, a country that has already been threatened with a first strike nuclear attack and told there will be no ground war.

We had some considerable say in what went on in the EU. We had no say in the US.

We now have no say in the US, no say in the EU, and next to no ability to project influence even into our near abroad.

Great job Brexiteers.

cogito

Herzlos wrote: »

Do you think we'll manage to average better than 1 agreement per annum?

I have no idea and neither do you. What people like you appear to think is that trade agreements are necessary. They are not. Most countries manage perfectly well without them and there is an argument that such agreements inhibit trade rather than facilitate it. The EU actually doesn't have free trade with itself when you look at the things which do not come within the single market.

Honey_Badger

Arklight wrote: »

No they aren’t.

Most countries in the world are client states of larger powers. The EU has managed to make European countries marginally independent of the United States. Despite the fact that there are around 55,000 American soldiers on permanent deployment. To 'protect' us from Russia, a country that has already been threatened with a first strike nuclear attack and told there will be no ground war.

We had some considerable say in what went on in the EU. We had no say in the US.

We now have no say in the US, no say in the EU, and next to no ability to project influence even into our near abroad.

Great job Brexiteers.

Are you really sure you know what a client state actually is?

Tromking

Austria installs a clutch of fascists into key Government positions it’s announced today. How long before the UK is seen as the beacon of liberal western values and tolerance again. The lights are slowly going out across continental Europe again.

BobQ

tracey3596 wrote: »

Irrelevant.
The point is that whilst members of the EU we are unable to formally discuss and/or arrange such a deal due to EU restrictions.

tracey3596 wrote: »

I realise that some will decry the source for the following - but since the interview was with this source . . . .
The implication that the UK will lose the trade deals which already exist seems to be more "project fear" doom-mongering.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/893043/Brexit-news-Liam-Fox-UK-EU-European-Union-trade-WTO-latest

I will not change my belief that Brexit was the wrong decision, but we are where we are and we should all focus on the facts not try and create more division than we already have.

We will be leaving the EU in March 2019 unless the UK Parliament AND the other EU27 nations decide otherwise. There is nothing to stop us discussing trade deals with other nations formally or informally with the EU's agreement. We simply cannot sign and enact the agreement until we have left. This is precisely why we need an implementation period. Some even argue that the EU's competence to stop us doing this does not apply provided they do not come into force till after the leave date.

The problem is that any negotiations with other nations on a trade deal need to be based on a clear understanding of the terms of that trade deal. The existing EU trade deals to which we are signatories and are in operation, will be easier to enact quickly than one based on us pursuing an aggressive policy to change the terms of that deal that distances us from the EU. It also makes a trade deal with the EU easier.

An implementation phase which enables us the maximum opportunity to adopt the EU trade deals and transform them into UK deals is surely preferable to starting from scratch? EFTA nations are outside the EU and have the right to negotiate separate trade deals and we are no different but the idea we have the time to do this and diverge substantively from our current practices which are inevitably based on EU rules at present.

Equally, our economy will suffer unless we can transition from being in the EU to being out of it. Legally we must set a date but in practice we need to minimise the cliff edge. While some people voted to Leave whatever the consequences, most will want a gentle exit that does not damage our economy. That is not "project fear" that is realistic progress to delivering what the majority want.

Daniel54

cogito wrote: »

They proudly announced an agreement with Japan on the day that Brexit talks began. Oh wait. It was an agreement to talk about a possible agreement. Given the glacial pace at which the EU proceeds with such talks, we can expect an agreement to be concluded with the Japanese some time in the next century.

The terms of the trade agreement between Japan and the EU were finalised on the 8th of this month .

http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/in-focus/eu-japan-economic-partnership-agreement/