Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Filo25

tracey3596 wrote: »

Perhaps Moby could answer why - if the EU are NOT protectionist and inward-looking - the UK are not allowed to negotiate trade deals with the USA, India, NZ & Oz for just a few examples until we have actually left the EU?

Also Moby and those who thanked his post might like to comment upon the damage that EU protectionism continues to cause various African countries, see below.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/28/the-european-union-is-an-ongoing-disaster-for-africa

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/africa-eu-poverty-james-cleverly_uk_5720d08be4b0a1e971cad84f

http://www.tuaeu.co.uk/how-the-eu-starves-africa/

https://capx.co/how-the-eu-starves-africa-into-submission/

I could be wrong but I was under the impression that one of the biggest obstacles to a trade deal between India and the EU was the UK, in fact the general feeling seems to be that the EU and India will find it easier to agree a deal when the UK leaves.

India's insistence on significantly improved visa access as part of any deal has been a major sticking point of negotiating trade deals.

Moby

tracey3596 wrote: »

Perhaps Moby could answer why - if the EU are NOT protectionist and inward-looking - the UK are not allowed to negotiate trade deals with the USA, India, NZ & Oz for just a few examples until we have actually left the EU?

Also Moby and those who thanked his post might like to comment upon the damage that EU protectionism continues to cause various African countries, see below.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/28/the-european-union-is-an-ongoing-disaster-for-africa

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/africa-eu-poverty-james-cleverly_uk_5720d08be4b0a1e971cad84f

http://www.tuaeu.co.uk/how-the-eu-starves-africa/

https://capx.co/how-the-eu-starves-africa-into-submission/

As a member of the EU, we benefit from free trade agreements with over 50 countries around the world and we are also trading more and more with rising economies like China and India. We will lose this now. We also would have benefit from new free trade agreements the EU is currently negotiating with countries including the United States, Australia and Japan.

We get the best of both worlds: Britain can trade with Europe while building trading relationships with the rest of the world. For instance Germany has huge trade deal with China.

Every trade bloc has exercised protectionism at one time or another, Trump boasts of that being American policy in future......and we are going crawling to him for our own deal because of Brexit. Do you think our Govmt should refuse to trade with him because of his protectionist stance? Protectionism is to do with with world trading conditions and wider economic fears....and as for the we voted brexit because of the EU's trading policy towards Africa argument....:rotfl that's risible ....people voted brexit because of their feelings about immigration...every dog on the street knows that!

tracey3596

From the FT link in my post above is this, regarding sentiment across the EU regarding migrants.

Anti-immigration sentiment is on the rise. Nearly two-thirds of EU citizens believe immigration has a negative impact on their countries, according to a survey released last month by Fondapol, a Paris-based liberal think-tank. In 2014, 52 per cent of Europeans believed immigration was “an economic burden” according to Pew Research Center. In Germany, the rate was 29 per cent — compared with 51 per cent now saying it has a “negative impact” in the Fondapol survey. After a series of Islamist terror attacks, 58 per cent of Europeans now view Islam as a threat. They are ambivalent about refugees: two-thirds of those polled say it is a duty to rescue them, but 54 per cent say their countries cannot afford to take more of them.

How do those reading this who are devout pro-EU remainers explain this?
How can you suggest in reality that - even were migration the main cause of our referendum result - the sentiment in the UK is so different to that seen across the EU?
As Moby said above,

Moby wrote: »

..... Brexit was a vote about immigration, nothing more nothing less. .....

And yet across your beloved EU the sentiment is very similar if not worse, " Nearly two-thirds of EU citizens believe immigration has a negative impact on their countries".
Ignore that though and instead decry the country you choose to live in.

Corporal_Perkins

Honey_Badger wrote: »

My family is from the one part of Scotland that voted for Brexit, and it wasn't to do with immigration but had a lot to do with the Common Fisheries Policy.

Many people around here voted for the same reasons given we have a local fishing community that like many other areas has been decimated by the CFP.

tracey3596

Filo25 wrote: »

I could be wrong but I was under the impression that one of the biggest obstacles to a trade deal between India and the EU was the UK, in fact the general feeling seems to be that the EU and India will find it easier to agree a deal when the UK leaves.

India's insistence on significantly improved visa access as part of any deal has been a major sticking point of negotiating trade deals.

Irrelevant.
The point is that whilst members of the EU we are unable to formally discuss and/or arrange such a deal due to EU restrictions.

tracey3596

I realise that some will decry the source for the following - but since the interview was with this source . . . .
The implication that the UK will lose the trade deals which already exist seems to be more "project fear" doom-mongering.

the OECD estimates about 90 per cent of global growth in the next 10 to 15 years will come outside the European continent.

The International Trade Secretary reaffirmed the prospect of transitioning 40 trade deals Britain has under the EU into UK law, having held meetings with trade counterparts from each of them.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/893043/Brexit-news-Liam-Fox-UK-EU-European-Union-trade-WTO-latest

Filo25

tracey3596 wrote: »

Irrelevant.
The point is that whilst members of the EU we are unable to formally discuss and/or arrange such a deal due to EU restrictions.

Highly relevant if you believe the Brexit vote was some kind of vote for an open global Britain.

The EU has actually been pretty good at leveraging its size to get trade deals with a lot of areas around the world already (and we had a veto on any of those deals that we didn't like)

One of the great successes of the Brexit campaign was the ability of the leave campaign to sell differing (and often contradictory) versions of Brexit to different groups, but as time passes by we get to see what version of Brexit we really get.

The idea of global Britain going out and doing deals with a lot of nations which the EU hasn't got wide ranging deals with is obviously attractive to some (myself included) but there is often a price tag attached to those deals (which is why the EU doesn't have them in the first place)

Are most leave voters going to be happy if the price for a deal with India is significantly increased visa access and immigration from India?

Is doing a deal with the US worth it if the price is moving into regulatory alignment with the US in many areas? (not exactly a case of us "taking back control")

Filo25

tracey3596 wrote: »

From the FT link in my post above is this, regarding sentiment across the EU regarding migrants.
How do those reading this who are devout pro-EU remainers explain this?
How can you suggest in reality that - even were migration the main cause of our referendum result - the sentiment in the UK is so different to that seen across the EU?
As Moby said above,
And yet across your beloved EU the sentiment is very similar if not worse, " Nearly two-thirds of EU citizens believe immigration has a negative impact on their countries".
Ignore that though and instead decry the country you choose to live in.

Tracey you seem to be under the impression that all of us on here who think that Brexit is a mistake on balance, think that the EU is a perfect institution and are as evangelical about supporting it as you seem to be about prescribing all of our country's ills to the institution of the EU

For the record I do not think the EU is a perfect institution, I believe it has many flaws (some reasonably serious), although I would say exactly the same about the UK itself.

I just happen to think we are economically better off in than we are likely to be after we leave.

Yes the EU has challenges to face but so does the UK and pretty much every other developed nation.

Moby

tracey3596 wrote: »

From the FT link in my post above is this, regarding sentiment across the EU regarding migrants.
How do those reading this who are devout pro-EU remainers explain this?
How can you suggest in reality that - even were migration the main cause of our referendum result - the sentiment in the UK is so different to that seen across the EU?
As Moby said above,
And yet across your beloved EU the sentiment is very similar if not worse, " Nearly two-thirds of EU citizens believe immigration has a negative impact on their countries".
Ignore that though and instead decry the country you choose to live in.

You mean the sentiment amongst brexiteers?.....it's not so different .....but our response has been extreme and will have untold consequences for our future. You see Immigration is inevitable, the world is smaller than it was, the movement of peoples cannot be controlled, people in Africa want what we have, best embrace diversity. See it as a positive. Those who don't will be lost .... I was born and bred in the UK....but national boundaries are an artificial construct and in a few tens of years will be as effective as an English cricket team in Australia.;)

cogito

Moby wrote: »

As a member of the EU, we benefit from free trade agreements with over 50 countries around the world and we are also trading more and more with rising economies like China and India. We will lose this now. We also would have benefit from new free trade agreements the EU is currently negotiating with countries including the United States, Australia and Japan

These fifty countries include global powerhouses like the Faroe Islands, San Marino, Kosovo and the Palestinian authority but not the likes of the USA, China, India and Brazil. In all its existence, the number of agreements this organisation has succeeded in negotiating less than one per annum.

They proudly announced an agreement with Japan on the day that Brexit talks began. Oh wait. It was an agreement to talk about a possible agreement. Given the glacial pace at which the EU proceeds with such talks, we can expect an agreement to be concluded with the Japanese some time in the next century.