Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

GreatApe

Arklight wrote: »

I think most people who lived through WW2 just want there not to be a WW3.

While the official narrative of WW2 is one of heroically standing against foreign tyranny (what war doesn't have this as its official narrative?), the reports of people who actually fought and died were more of weary resignation that the toffs had caused yet another colossal mess that could only be solved by millions of people dying.

This led to the rise of the Labour movement and the creation of the NHS. People wanted something back, they were going to get it and the people driving around in Bentley's and living in stately homes were going to pay for it.

The living standards of the working classes increased sharply when able bodied men weren't being sent off to fight and die in the Tropics to keep Lord Haw Haw's plundered goods moving.

Nevertheless there seems to be a lot of jingoism in some of the boomer generations for some reason. Maybe they were more exposed to anxiety caused by Britain's collapse of empire in the post war years. Some kind of worry that they'd been born into an "important country" but wouldn't die in one.

The NHS in 1945 and its continual expansion for 30 years was primarily thanks to electricity not to wars or the people standing up and demanding it. They could have demanded it all day and night long 20-30-40 years before but it would not have happened because the economy was not productive enough to support it

The real industrial revolution was in the period 1940-1980 which is when the UK and the rest of europe actually mechanized very rapidly. Electricity usage boomed going up 10-20% a year

The same thing happened in china from about 2000 onwards and they too went from dirt poor in 2000 to middle income in 2015 and they will become high income in 2030 all thanks to the exponential deployment and usage of electricity.

I know this probably does not fit your left narrative so think of a poor country today.
Do you think all they need to do is protest and magically hospitals and doctors will appear?
Or does it make more sense to suggest that if they deploy a strong reliable national grid and power stations that will allow them over a period of 20 years to get a lot more productive and can then allocate more people and resources to healthcare?

A robust national grid is a requirement for national prosperity.
The richer nations should build out the electricity infrastructure of the poorest nations especially where hydroelectricity is present/possible. Once you get to 1000 KWh/capita they can take it from there are exponentially grow their economies

Arklight

Tromking wrote: »

A rudimentary grasp of 20th century history not your strongpoint it would appear.

Oh noes. Your carefully composed, detailed and well referenced rebuttal has left me in pieces!


I won't dare cross swords with you again, Professor.

Arklight

GreatApe wrote: »

The NHS in 1945 and its continual expansion for 30 years was primarily thanks to electricity not to wars or the people standing up and demanding it. They could have demanded it all day and night long 20-30-40 years before but it would not have happened because the economy was not productive enough to support it

The real industrial revolution was in the period 1940-1980 which is when the UK and the rest of europe actually mechanized very rapidly. Electricity usage boomed going up 10-20% a year

The same thing happened in china from about 2000 onwards and they too went from dirt poor in 2000 to middle income in 2015 and they will become high income in 2030 all thanks to the exponential deployment and usage of electricity.

I know this probably does not fit your left narrative so think of a poor country today.
Do you think all they need to do is protest and magically hospitals and doctors will appear?
Or does it make more sense to suggest that if they deploy a strong reliable national grid and power stations that will allow them over a period of 20 years to get a lot more productive and can then allocate more people and resources to healthcare?

A robust national grid is a requirement for national prosperity.
The richer nations should build out the electricity infrastructure of the poorest nations especially where hydroelectricity is present/possible. Once you get to 1000 KWh/capita they can take it from there are exponentially grow their economies

Correlation does not equal causation. While it may fit the narrative of the Right to assume that advances in human society are down to rigged markets and capital concentrated in the hands of a few magically creating infrastructure and engineers, evidence points towards universal health, universal education and a sense of place.


I am glad we agree that investment in our capital infrastructure is the way forward however. You must be most excited about the next Labour government's investment plans, as ten more years under the Tories and we'll be back to only having electric lights in the cities and Devon having no roads.

Tromking

mayonnaise wrote: »

Unbelievable.

I happened to be in the Palace of Westminster yesterday Mayo, and spoke with a couple of MP's (one red, one blue) , both were/are pro-remain and both interestingly thought the PM is now a busted flush and were now expecting a GE early next year.
As some of us suggested after the last GE, not enough of the British people are in favour of Brexit for it to happen. I fear under our electoral system we are going to have regular GE's until Brexit is finally shelved.

Filo25

Tromking wrote: »

I happened to be in the Palace of Westminster yesterday Mayo, and spoke with a couple of MP's (one red, one blue) , both were/are pro-remain and both interestingly thought the PM is now a busted flush and were now expecting a GE early next year.
As some of us suggested after the last GE, not enough of the British people are in favour of Brexit for it to happen. I fear under our electoral system we are going to have regular GE's until Brexit is finally shelved.

This government is looking pretty doomed at present, but Theresa May's incompetence is almost saving it in a weird way, there is no way the Tories want to go into another election with her as leader, so she would have to go before we could see another election, equally a lot of Tory MPs don't want her gone because they are concerned about who is likely to end up replacing her.

Thrugelmir

mayonnaise wrote: »

Unbelievable.

Any forecast would have been...........

GreatApe

Arklight wrote: »

Correlation does not equal causation. While it may fit the narrative of the Right to assume that advances in human society are down to rigged markets and capital concentrated in the hands of a few magically creating infrastructure and engineers, evidence points towards universal health, universal education and a sense of place.

I am glad we agree that investment in our capital infrastructure is the way forward however. You must be most excited about the next Labour government's investment plans, as ten more years under the Tories and we'll be back to only having electric lights in the cities and Devon having no roads.

Can you name one single country that managed to develop without a robust natural grid?

While I agree we need infrastructure I do not see what infrastructure we lack in the UK.
Also we do not need more infrastructure for the sake of it bridges to nowhere. For instance we do not need more power stations because we have already built enough to supply what we need and efficiency improvements have actually meant we were able to close some of our power stations. We also can improve infrastructure with data eg you do not need to build more tail lines if you can switch analog signalling to digital signaling which allows twice as many trains on the same line. Also things like replacing a coal plant with a much smaller much cheaper much fast built CCGT means it takes a lot less capital than it did a generation ago.

So what infrastructure is it that comrade McDonnell thinks we lack so desperately?

Water? No
Electricity? No
National Grid? No
National Gas Grid? No
Data? No
Rail lines? No
Air ports? Possibly a bigger hub in the SE but he isn't talking about that
Ports? No
Roads? Possibly some improvements but nothing that needs monster investments

So when the politicians cry infrastureeee what the hell are they talking about? We are already a developed nation and going forward we can improve a lot of existing infrastructure with data


The biggest problem is that the left cry things are !!!! when in fact things are great
The biggest problem with the right is they often lack the balls to tell the left to shut up and accept that this is a great country in pretty much every way that counts

Filo25

ilovehouses wrote: »

Pointing out a forecast of the future may not be accurate is to miss the point of what's going on here.

The braggard Davis has been boasting, posturing and swaggering.

Today he's been caught with his pants down yet again.

It'll be unbelievable if he's still in post by the end of the day.

And yet he will be, because May is too weak to get rid of anyone

System

ilovehouses wrote: »

Pointing out a forecast of the future may not be accurate is to miss the point of what's going on here.

The braggard Davis has been boasting, posturing and swaggering.

Today he's been caught with his pants down yet again.

It'll be unbelievable if he's still in post by the end of the day.

He's making a bit a fool of the fan club as well.

The studies that definitely exist but can't be shared as they will reveal our position, don't exist after all. Bummer

mayonnaise

Tromking wrote: »

I happened to be in the Palace of Westminster yesterday Mayo, and spoke with a couple of MP's (one red, one blue) , both were/are pro-remain and both interestingly thought the PM is now a busted flush and were now expecting a GE early next year.
As some of us suggested after the last GE, not enough of the British people are in favour of Brexit for it to happen. I fear under our electoral system we are going to have regular GE's until Brexit is finally shelved.

Shelving Brexit sounds wonderful but I'm afraid I'm not as optimistic as you, Tromking.
What needs to (and probably will) happen is to wean off that ridiculous idea that in order to Brexit properly we need to exit SM and CU.
Heck, even the Leave campaign presented the Norway option as viable.
Referendum mandate (leaving EU) fulfilled, Ireland border solved, UK economy avoids the worst damage, everybody happy.(*)

(*) Everybody apart from a handful Tory extremist blowhards and half a dozen MSE accounts directed by one and the same poster, but that's another matter.