Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

setmefree2

The Really Good News on Brexit Has Just Come From Germany: Gadfly

Good Brexit news has broken out in Europe, and some semblance of sanity as well. While investors are focused on progress in the divorce negotiations, the best development has actually come out of the Bundesbank. Executive board member Andreas Dombret has called for an agreement to keep financial services clearing in London.

Now, the German central bank is not the European Central Bank, and this is just one official’s opinion, but the Bundesbank is the adult in the room. As Gadfly said Tuesday, the brutal reality is that the European Union is neither ready nor capable of taking over the role that London fulfills.

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney’s calls on Tuesday for urgent action on financial contracts have clearly resonated on the continent. It is good to see that central bankers at least are on the same page.

Meanwhile, the unexpected progress in Brexit talks is perhaps already paying dividends. It would be hard to see Dombret making these remarks were the U.K. still nowhere near even a prospect of settling its EU bill.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/the-really-good-news-on-brexit-has-just-come-from-germany-gadfly/2017/11/29/6a82fdb8-d507-11e7-9ad9-ca0619edfa05_story.html?utm_term=.083b481441a9

Also

https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2017-11-29/the-really-good-news-on-brexit-has-just-come-from-germany

Filo25

mrginge wrote: »

Have you considered the wider implications of letting NI have a bespoke status?

Yes.

Have you considered the wider implications of pushing NI down the path of being forced to have a hard border with the Republic?

Rinoa

setmefree2 wrote: »

I have always tried to be fair haven't I?

The Remainers always said and argued that the Brexit bill would be between £50 and £60 billion.

The argument went like this..

Brexiter : We will save £350 million per week

Remainer : But it will cost us £50 to £60 billion to leave.

I think you'll find that started way after we voted to leave.

First inclination of a 'Divorce Bill' I can find is from October 2016 when the FT made the shock announcement we could face a Bill of up to £20Bn :eek:

Strange neither the EU nor 'project fear' mentioned it before then.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/13/britain-facing-18-billion-brexit-divorce-bill/

Filo25

setmefree2 wrote: »

I have always tried to be fair haven't I?

The Remainers always said and argued that the Brexit bill would be between £50 and £60 billion.

The argument went like this..

Brexiter : We will save £350 million per week

Remainer : But it will cost us £50 to £60 billion to leave.

My £40-50b a few weeks ago is looking pretty good

setmefree2

Rinoa wrote: »

I think you'll find that started way after we voted to leave.

First inclination of a 'Divorce Bill' I can find is from October 2016 when the FT made the shock announcement we could face a Bill of up to £20Bn :eek:

Strange neither the EU nor 'project fear' mentioned it before then.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/13/britain-facing-18-billion-brexit-divorce-bill/

It was brought up during the debates and in interviews prior to the ref. I'm 100% sure about this.

I looked, however, it wasn't in "the" governments leaflet.

mrginge

Filo25 wrote: »

Yes.

Have you considered the wider implications of pushing NI down the path of being forced to have a hard border with the Republic?

Yes I have.
Personally I would take a hard border over the breakup of the uk but that’s just me. Ideally of course I would prefer a sensible agreement that involves both uk and Irish govts, but it appears that the current situation is very much like the remainers in this thread - shouting very loudly about what can’t be done rather than getting on and working things out for mutual benefit.

Filo25

mrginge wrote: »

Yes I have.
Personally I would take a hard border over the breakup of the uk but that’s just me. Ideally of course I would prefer a sensible agreement that involves both uk and Irish govts, but it appears that the current situation is very much like the remainers in this thread - shouting very loudly about what can’t be done rather than getting on and working things out for mutual benefit.

Special status wouldn't involve the political breakup of the UK.

A hard border certainly wouldn't bring an imminent breakup of the UK either, but it probably brings that day a lot closer.

Ballard

tracey3596 wrote: »

Really?
Is that because as fervent remainers you have a broad definition of what is acceptable - so long of course as it is said by other remainers?

"Infantile ... go-whistle charade", "Mayhem", "complete rubbish. Like all the other Brexit lies", "How are you an expert" and more.
I strongly suspect that if such language came from leave posters instead in these posts that remainers use of the "report" button would put it at risk of meltdown.
I'm willing to put odds on a bet that you do not talk in such a way in public, face-to-face.

I really can’t be bothered to answer all of that but suspect that the “how are you an expert” quote was pointed towards me and I stand by it. A poster claimed that there is no legal responsibility for the UK to pay and I questioned how they could possibly know that. It wasn’t in the slightest an aggressive question. As you may we’ll have spotted I have said that I don’t know whether or not we are liable.

System

tracey3596 wrote: »

Really?
Is that because as fervent remainers you have a broad definition of what is acceptable - so long of course as it is said by other remainers?

"Infantile ... go-whistle charade", "Mayhem", "complete rubbish. Like all the other Brexit lies", "How are you an expert" and more.
I strongly suspect that if such language came from leave posters instead in these posts that remainers use of the "report" button would put it at risk of meltdown.
I'm willing to put odds on a bet that you do not talk in such a way in public, face-to-face.

I don't think anyone is going to report anyone else for being mean about politicians.

I'm ashamed to admit that I have indeed used the phrases "Mayhem, "infantile", "complete rubbish" and most likely "how are you an expert?" in real life. I don't talk about Brexit much in real life but I have accused people of lying.

I can't say I've ever said "go-whistle charade", I'm not a total barbarian like mayonnaise!

Are you aware of the phrase "self-awareness"? If that lot is your definition of "reams of abusive posts", then whatever you do, don't look at your post history, you'll have an aneurysm.

posh*spice

FYI 2/3 of NI trade is done with the UK and 1/3 with RoI. It is not in NI interest to be excluded from the rest of the UK.