Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

mayonnaise

posh*spice wrote: »

Worth every penny.....

.....the dream is becoming real.

You do change your tune quite a lot, posh.

posh*spice wrote: »

I think you're probably right, we should walk away at xmas. Keep the £50 billion and put all efforts into WTO.
I can't see how we have any other choice.

posh*spice wrote: »

I expect there will be a lot os abusive posts from remainers today?

Not at all.
The hard brexit 'no deal' scenario is pretty much off the table if these financials are settled.
That's good news.
In the long run, we'll end up with EEA membership and inside the customs union anyway.
Everybody knows it makes sense.
It would fulfill the referendum mandate - if there ever was one.
NI border also sorted.
Good stuff.

ukcarper

ilovehouses wrote: »

I don't the government's preferred option is a hard brexit. I'm just mightily !!!!ed off at how the government have handled this so far.

Agreeing to a timetable where trade was to be discussed after agreement on citizens rights, the Irish border and the 'divorce' bill is looking like a massive blunder. Compounded by the government pretty much begging for trade talks to start immediately after this was agreed. Talk about showing your cards.

But, yes, this is a significant step forwards.

How can you reach that conclusion if they wanted a hard brexit why would they offer more money.

If they hadn’t agreed to timetable they would still be arguing about that. As I’ve said before you are just as blinkered in your own way as the likes of the now departed Conrad.

Rinoa

vivatifosi wrote: »

I'm a remainer posh, though I think of myself more as a pragmatic realist. I am really happy that we've made the advance. It means that we are one step further away from crashing out with no deal.

Of course "Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed"

The only advantage I see in offering £50Bn is that when trade discussions start and the EU say (and they will) "We're not giving you this... we're not giving you that... you're going to have to jump through this hoop...." we can say "The £50Bn is for everything, if you're not offering this it's £40Bn... if you won't agree that it's £30Bn.... etc.

When they see how much they lose, they'll be more amenable.

mayonnaise

Rinoa wrote: »

Of course "Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed"

The only advantage I see in offering £50Bn is that when trade discussions start and the EU say (and they will) "We're not giving you this... we're not giving you that... you're going to have to jump through this hoop...." we can say "The £50Bn is for everything, if you're not offering this it's £40Bn... if you won't agree that it's £30Bn.... etc.

When they see how much they lose, they'll be more amenable.

You still don't get it, do you?
The £50bn is to cover liabilities, future spending commitments we've signed up to, pensions, etc...
It's not a fee to buy a free trade agreement.

Filo25

ilovehouses wrote: »

I don't think the government's preferred option is a hard brexit. I'm just mightily !!!!ed off at how the government have handled this so far.

Agreeing to a timetable where trade was to be discussed after agreement on citizens rights, the Irish border and the 'divorce' bill is looking like a massive blunder. Compounded by the government pretty much begging for trade talks to start immediately after this was agreed. Talk about showing your cards.

But, yes, this is a significant step forwards.

For all I think it could have been handled better as well, I'm not convinced the outcome would have been a great different irrespective of how it had been handled once the decision was made to leave the Single Market and Customs Union, as you say we just might have got there a bit quicker.

No government with a modicum of intelligence was likely to push for the cliff-edge no deal Brexit and I don't think it was ever a credible bluff as a result, the EU always held the majority cards in this negotiation.

Likewise for all some of the hard right of the Tory party want to push the threat of the UK becoming a properly low tax economy it really isn't that plausible, given how much we would cannibalise our own tax base in the process, we are too big an economy to make that fantasy a reality where people expect the government to continue to provide the services it currently does.

ukcarper

ilovehouses wrote: »

Maybe not expressed myself very well. I don't think the government want a hard brexit. However their incompetence and in-fighting has made one more likely.

As I said I don’t think they are as incompetent as you think, but the in fighting has not helped.

Herzlos

ilovehouses wrote: »

Costs for accessing the single market will be in addition to this.

Exactly. This is a settlement of our liabilities from leaving the EU, and is entirely unrelated to whatever trading deal we pay out for.

May is just trying her hardest to spin this as part of the trading agreement for political reasons.

Filo25

ukcarper wrote: »

As I said I don’t think they are as incompetent as you think, but the in fighting has not helped.

Where I do think I can question their competence is the continual spinning of negotiations to appeal to the Hard Brexit support in the media which will probably lead to a bit of a backlash now that reality is starting to intrude.

Ultimately after this is over, the country needs to carry on as best it can, I'm not sure the rhetoric around the negotiations has helped in terms of the job of uniting the country post Brexit as much possible and getting on with things.

ukcarper

Filo25 wrote: »

Where I do think I can question their competence is the continual spinning of negotiations to appeal to the Hard Brexit support in the media which will probably lead to a bit of a backlash now that reality is starting to intrude.

Ultimately after this is over, the country needs to carry on as best it can, I'm not sure the rhetoric around the negotiations has helped in terms of the job of uniting the country post Brexit as much possible and getting on with things.

I’m not saying it couldn’t have been handled better but it was always going to be difficult and without caving in completely I’m not sure anybody else could have done any better.

Filo25

ukcarper wrote: »

I’m not saying it couldn’t have been handled better but it was always going to be difficult and without caving in completely I’m not sure anybody else could have done any better.

I agree that I don't think the outcome would have been much different in terms of finances however the negotiations had been handled, maybe there could have been less jingoistic nonsense along the way though.

Of course we are all speaking as if a deal has been settled when there is still the NI border issue to resolve, there the government has undoubtedly made things a lot tougher through an utterly incompetent election campaign leaving them dependant on votes from the DUP, thus removing some of their flexibility to negotiate over some kind of possible special status for NI.

Hopefully some sort of fudge can be found that resolves that issue.