Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Filo25

Ireland were always going to be concerned about the situation in Northern Ireland which has a significant minority of people who view themselves as Irish, who many people in the South view as Irish and who until relatively recently (by historical standards) haven't always been treated particularly well within the UK.

Up until Brexit relations between the UK and Ireland had probably improved to the point where they were as close as they had ever been, but you don't have to go back too far to find a fair amount of mutual distrust though, there is a lot of history there and let's just say not all of it is viewed quite as favourably in Ireland as it might be in the UK!

Given the views of the nationalist community in the North its easy to understand why Ireland is obviously worried about the impact a hard border would have, it doesn't help that it is potentially very economically damaging for them as well, given the large amount of trade between the UK and Ireland driven by geography.

In spite of all this though the border issue can't be resolved, so if they want to stick to their guns as far as I see it a Brexit deal is dead in the water, if they are open to negotiation I suspect they will want a significant financial offer from either/both the EU or UK to help with the infrastructure investment they will need to address the trade issues Brexit brings them, and may even push for amendments to the Good Friday Agreement (although that is going nowhere with the UK government being so dependant on the DUP)

The best case scenario for the UK, is the Irish government is just applying the leverage Brexit has given it to try to get a better outcome from what is a very damaging situation for it, if this is more than that and these are genuine redlines though, then as far as I can see it the process is basically dead in the water.

Filo25

tracey3596 wrote: »

It is certainly not just you. The following might not be recent but explains very nicely why Ireland are being as they are.
British exit could lead to Ireland paying more to EU



https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/british-exit-could-lead-to-ireland-paying-more-to-eu-1.2656895

Like I said earlier in this thread, they're all reluctant to pay more into the EU's coffers.
Shame.

Trade disruption is a far far bigger concern for Ireland than a relatively small increase in EU contributions, when compared to the overall size of their economy.

cogito

Filo25 wrote: »

Trade disruption is a far far bigger concern for Ireland than a relatively small increase in EU contributions, when compared to the overall size of their economy.

True. The Irish are trying to play hardball when they haven’t even got a ball to play with. Varadkar is demanding that the UK confirm in writing that the UK won’t put up a hard border. Our verbal assurances aren’t enough for him.

Why the UK would want to erect a physical border is mystifying. One would only be erected if the EU did it themselves but given their customary intransigence, who can say they wouldn’t do it.

Filo25

cogito wrote: »

True. The Irish are trying to play hardball when they haven’t even got a ball to play with. Varadkar is demanding that the UK confirm in writing that the UK won’t put up a hard border. Our verbal assurances aren’t enough for him.

Why the UK would want to erect a physical border is mystifying. One would only be erected if the EU did it themselves but given their customary intransigence, who can say they wouldn’t do it.

Given we want to "take control of our borders" and leave the Customs Union and Single Market, I have yet to see how there can't be a hard border in Ireland, unfortunately David Davis talking about trying to find creative solutions to the problem isn't actually finding a creative solution to the problem.

Arklight

mayonnaise wrote: »

If we trash the pound further, we can all go work in tourism and hospitality, earning worthless pounds. Hooray.
Conrad's 7th age of prosperity has finally dawned.

That's 100% what Brexit voters wanted. More foreign visitors. Hope they don't mind being biometrically scanned, fingerprinted, and having bells hung round their necks at Heathrow.

Thrugelmir

Filo25 wrote: »

I have yet to see how there can't be a hard border in Ireland, .

Geography. Impossible to police.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Filo25 wrote: »

if this is more than that and these are genuine redlines though, then as far as I can see it the process is basically dead in the water.

Britain has already proven itself not to be trustworthy so quite rightly the Irish are concerned, these will be genuine redlines but that doesn't mean the process is over, just that May will have to compromise.

Yes, it's obvious there has to be an Irish border somewhere between the UK and EU once we leave the EU but only if we leave the single market and customs union and don't have comparable agreements to replace them.

So a border would not have to be in place for the interim agreement period.

And getting as far as that is realistically the only goal at the moment.

Despite all Mayhem's posturing there's no chance a permanent deal will be completed by the time we leave the EU, we long ago ran out of time for that, so 'statements of intent' are as far as that will get to.

The rest can be sorted later and will be negotiated during the several years of the interim agreement while we're still in the single market and customs union.

And realistically, it probably won't be negotiated by this government, so if written assurances on the border are asked for I suspect they'll be given as it'll be someone else's problem to deal with in the future.

cogito

Filo25 wrote: »

Given we want to "take control of our borders" and leave the Customs Union and Single Market, I have yet to see how there can't be a hard border in Ireland, unfortunately David Davis talking about trying to find creative solutions to the problem isn't actually finding a creative solution to the problem.

And every time the UK sets out detailed proposals for solving the problem, the EU knocks them back as magical thinking, impossible etc. but never comes up with any suggestions of its own other than the ludicrous one that Northern Ireland should remain in the Customs Union.

cogito

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Britain has already proven itself not to be trustworthy

I get sick of reading comments like this from remainers who are blind to the intransigence, lies and bullying that emanate from the EU on a daily basis, not to mention the deliberate attempts of the likes of Tusk, Selmayr and Verhofstadt to frustrate the negotiating process.

As far as Ireland itself is concerned, they may eventually wake up to the games that the EU is playing with them over the border issue and their attacks on Ireland’s right to set its own tax policies. They may have been supporters of the EU project in the past but may become more lukewarm when they see that the gravy train has left town and they will have to make large contributions to the EU budget.

Thrugelmir

cogito wrote: »

As far as Ireland itself is concerned, they may eventually wake up to the games that the EU is playing with them over the border issue and their attacks on Ireland’s right to set its own tax policies.

Not an attack. The EU has to move towards fiscal integration to ever work fully. Agree that to Eire this is a major issue though. Be interesting to see what friction this causes.