Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

setmefree2

Merkel Wary of Pushing May Too Far in Brexit Talks

• Manfred Weber comes away from talks with May more optimistic
• Brexit Secretary Davis will speak in Berlin on Thursday

Germany’s Angela Merkel is wary that pushing U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May too hard in Brexit talks could backfire, according to a person familiar with the chancellor’s thinking.
Chancellery officials in Berlin see a risk that excessive European Union pressure over the Brexit divorce bill could weaken May at home, said the person who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations. If May were replaced, most of the likely successors are hardline Brexit backers.

Reflecting that caution, Manfred Weber, who leads Merkel’s Christian Democrats in the European Parliament and describes himself as “one of the more skeptical partners” on Brexit, met May in London on Wednesday, and his tone changed dramatically from just a day before.
“I saw today that there is a willingness to go further, there is a willingness to contribute to a positive outcome,” he told reporters. The U.K. has a “credible” position and “there are good arguments on the table from both sides.”

The Sun reported Thursday that May was preparing to offer to cover additional commitments amounting to around 20 billion pounds ($26 billion). Meanwhile Politico said that EU negotiators were preparing to offer a Canada-style free-trade agreement, largely leaving out financial services. It cited scoping papers that rejected May’s request for a bespoke trade deal.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-15/merkel-said-to-be-wary-of-hurting-may-as-german-hawk-backs-u-k

mayonnaise

cogito wrote: »

The ECB is concerned that UK banks are setting up shell operation in the EU. in essence, this means that they are worried that all those bankers who were going to move to Frankfurt won't be doing so.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/nov/15/ecb-criticises-banks-relocation-plans-brexit-euro-area

No, in essence it doesn't mean that at all.
As per your linked article:

The ECB said many banks wanted to transfer all their market risk back to a third-country entity, perhaps in the UK or the US, which it said it was “not comfortable” with. It added that banks needed to have permanent local trading capabilities and risk-management operations.

Sounds reasonable to me.

Moby

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/16/leaked-eu-paper-dents-mays-hopes-for-bespoke-brexit-trade-deal Bottom line is the other 27 states have too many other things to worry about so they ain't going to spend too much time negotiating amongst themselves on a bespoke deal for the jolly old UK. We'll have to just accept the bargain basement deal. Don't say I didn't tell you! Meanwhile the bankers realise what a disaster brexit will be:- Lloyd Blankfein, the head of Goldman Sachs, has come out in favour of a second referendum on Brexit. He has just tweeted this. Lloyd Blankfein (@lloydblankfein) Here in UK, lots of hand-wringing from CEOs over #Brexit. Better sense of the tough and risky road ahead. Reluctant to say, but many wish for a confirming vote on a decision so monumental and irreversible. So much at stake, why not make sure consensus still there? November 16, 2017

andromedean

It looks like if we get any deal at all, it will be a EU-Canada type version which doesn't serve the financial industry well.

Brussels views its free-trade agreement with Canada as the only realistic model for post-Brexit trade with the U.K., scotching British Prime Minister Theresa May’s hopes of a far broader bespoke deal.

According to framework documents from EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier seen by POLITICO, London’s insistence on quitting the single market and customs union means that a basic EU-Canada-style deal is the only option.

Sliding back onto a Canada-style trading relationship would be a big failure for May, who has acknowledged that the Brussels-Ottawa arrangement is greatly inferior to Britain’s current position in the EU’s single market.

In her Florence speech in September, May said: “Compared with what exists between Britain and the EU today, [a Canada-style arrangement] would nevertheless represent such a restriction on our mutual market access that it would benefit neither of our economies.”

https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-trade-barnier-dashes-britains-hopes-of-something-better-than-canada-deal/

BTW, how much does it cost to join the EU proper? Oh hang on I forgot........:doh:

tracey3596

andromedean wrote: »

BTW, how much does it cost to join the EU proper? Oh hang on I forgot........:doh:

More posturing and spluttering, all because they're desperate for UK cash.
Who cares how much it costs to join?
Norwegians still don't want to join and nether do the Swiss.
Iceland recently had elections which saw their pro-EU parties reduced to only two out of the eight represented in their parliament and so abandon talks of joining the EU.
Ask yourself why?


Then ask yourself if you think the EU will somehow magically reform once the UK leaves, regardless of how we eventually leave?
Ask the Poles, the Hungarians, the Maltese etc. etc. etc.


Back to the crux of the matter and the moolah, and we've seen different countries panic already at the loss of UK cash. Now Italy is the latest.

"Italy risks losing 42 bn in EU funds after 2020"

Brussels, November 16 - Italy risks losing between 12 and 42 billion euros in structural funding in the new post 2020 EU budget, according to documents prepared by the European Commission to prepare for the debate on the bloc's next multiannual budget.

http://www.ansa.it/english/news/2017/11/16/italy-risks-losing-42-bn-in-eu-funds-after-2020-2_767e9737-82bf-4fe7-b774-c67c799d0dd6.html

THAT and similar reactions from Danes, the Dutch and more are why you are seeing so much bluster from Barnier & co.
They are having incontinence problems in the trouser department.
And I'm loving it, TBH.

andromedean

tracey3596 wrote: »

More posturing and spluttering, all because they're desperate for UK cash.

Why should they be desperate for UK cash if their economies are performing better than ours?



Do people really believe the EU are poor in Brexitland? I thought they claimed the EU were rolling it it! They certainly want what is due,and don't wish to encourage any other countries to lie to their people and pull a fast one.

tracey3596 wrote: »

Who cares how much it costs to join?

Well the Leave campaign cared quite a lot, in fact they placed it central to their argument, even if they lied about the figure and didn't use any valid arguments.

Thrugelmir

andromedean wrote: »

Why should they be desperate for UK cash if their economies are performing better than ours?

How many of the current 28 members are net contributors to the EU budget? Therein lies many an answer.

andromedean

Thrugelmir wrote: »

How many of the current 28 members are net contributors to the EU budget? Therein lies many an answer.

Nearly every Northern European country is a net contributor. Any 'surplus' from leaving will be minimised by the UK payments made to compensate the Farmers. Actually the CAP was one of the few valid reasons for criticising the EU, but we didn't hear much about it did we? So which way did the farmers vote once their Tory friends had promised to pay them anyway?

Of course this net payment is best seen as necessary investment necessary to gain access to the single market, so there is a net benefit to the UK overall.

Thrugelmir

andromedean wrote: »

Of course this net payment is best seen as necessary investment necessary to gain access to the single market, so there is a net benefit to the UK overall.

Net contributors to the budget amount to 4. The other 24 are net beneficiaries.

Yet the UK runs a balance of trade deficit with the EU. A strange logic to use as justification for membership. The revenue generated from the imposition of import taxes would wipe the budget deficit to zero.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Net contributors to the budget amount to 4. The other 24 are net beneficiaries.

Wrong.

Britain is one of nine EU members that are net contributors to the European Union's budget.

And far more importantly the benefits of single market membership at around £70 BILLION in economic benefit annually dwarfs our net contribution of a mere £8.5 billion or so.