Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

tracey3596

ilovehouses wrote: »

Can't imagine the brexiters of Lincolnshire are celebrating that much. I thought they wanted less EU workers and yet the article suggests there are even more from Romania and Bulgaria about their fields.

In the latest ONS release (to November) it shows a dip in the number of people employed. Maybe that will turn out to be evidence of returnees you're hoping for.

Fourteen thousand less people employed in the three months to September when the number of unemployed fell by 59,000 and the number of "economically inactive" ( which includes people studying, retirees, the long-term sick, or those looking after family) rose by 117,000 would be your "evidence of returnees" would it?

tracey3596

ilovehouses wrote: »

The economy doesn't turn on a sixpence. The net migration figures of March showed a marked slowdown in net EU migration which isn't at odds with increased EU nationals in work of course.

It'll become clearer with time but with an improving EU economy, Sterling which is languishing at multi-decade lows and brexit uncertainty there are less compelling reasons to head to the UK for work.

You're right 14,000 isn't significant but it'll be interesting to see if the total people in employment does head on a downward trend.

Still struggling to see why you think the average brexiter is looking at this news with glee other than a false perception it somehow gets one over on the remoaners.

There is no such a thing as "the average brexiter (sic)" any more than there is an average remainer. Regardless, IMHO it has nothing to do with "glee" as you put it and more to do with the fact that the pro-remain lobby tried lying to us and failing, by suggesting that EU workers are leaving in large numbers. They are not.

As for "it'll be interesting to see if the total people in employment does head on a downward trend" it's difficult to see how it can do much other when we're at as near as heck to full employment. When the bottle's full, you can't fill it any more.

System

tracey3596 wrote: »

There is no such a thing as "the average brexiter (sic)" any more than there is an average remainer. Regardless, IMHO it has nothing to do with "glee" as you put it and more to do with the fact that the pro-remain lobby tried lying to us and failing, by suggesting that EU workers are leaving in large numbers. They are not.

I feel like you are confusing 2 totally different statistics.

Thrugelmir

ilovehouses wrote: »

The 'bottle' is expanding in size and, potentially, a growing economy should allow it to keep filling.

Trouble is that it's the 50-65 year olds that are suffering the brunt of unemployment. A third of this age group wish to work but can't.

vivatifosi

gfplux wrote: »

Experts suddenly being loved by Brexiters. Thank you.
Would it have been a bad piece if the expert said the opposite. You can bet there are experts out there who will say the currency drop has still to work its way through to retail.
Fact is inflation is at 3% that is bad news whatever way you spin it.

I'm not a brexiter, I voted remain. If I were to travel back in time I'd still vote remain. I am however pragmatic, understand that we lost, and would like the country to get on with it and get as good a deal as possible. That's why I find posts from both sides of the divide interesting and thank them, especially if they are informative and contain info that i hadnt previously come across.

The segment that I had mentioned was an economist speaking about inflation. I thought that the case they had put for the fall in the pound having settled as being a fair reason for inflation to settle. My concern is a cliff edge Brexit will cause a further fall, leading to more inflation. For the record, I understand the need to negotiate, but think a cliff edge Brexit is a terrible idea.

mrginge

ilovehouses wrote: »

Debating the debate can be fun from time to time. A bit dull when its all you do I would've thought but whatever floats your boat.

There is no debate on this board.

All there is is the same comments from the same people with the same entrenched views. Some people even have to use different accounts just to keep posting the same stuff. Whatever floats their boat I guess.

Arklight

mrginge wrote: »

There is no debate on this board.

All there is is the same comments from the same people with the same entrenched views. Some people even have to use different accounts just to keep posting the same stuff. Whatever floats their boat I guess.

Eric_the_half_a_bee

mrginge wrote: »

There is no debate on this board.

Oh yes there is

cogito

The ECB is concerned that UK banks are setting up shell operation in the EU. in essence, this means that they are worried that all those bankers who were going to move to Frankfurt won't be doing so.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/nov/15/ecb-criticises-banks-relocation-plans-brexit-euro-area

https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/press/publications/newsletter/2017/html/ssm.nl171115_2.en.html

Thrugelmir

cogito wrote: »

The ECB is concerned that UK banks are setting up shell operation in the EU. in essence, this means that they are worried that all those bankers who were going to move to Frankfurt won't be doing so.

A far more complicated issue than simply changing where a person sits at a desk......