Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

posh*spice

ukcarper wrote: »

That's about a vote in parliament not a referendum and I'd be very surprised when shove comes to push there would be enough rebels.

Not much point in demanding a vote on the deal when there isn't going to be a deal.

And The DUP will continue to support the government because of Varadakar's position, so. GE is unlikely anytime soon either.

Varadakar's position has strengthened the UK government and thus the Brexiters. He doesn't care about that as he is playing to the home crowd as he has siin fein snapping at his ankles in elections and wants to look tough to the Irish electorate.

The DUP will also be terrified that Labour will throw them to the wolves particularly given Corbyn and McDonnell's well publicised Irish Republican sympathy.

Ireland and the EU's position this week on Ireland have made a no deal outcomre the most likely outcome.

Moby

cogito wrote: »

We don't agree on many things but can agree on this one. Every fule no that the EU are not negotiating. I can't think of a single item where the EU have shown any flexibility whatsoever. Can you?

The other thing we can agree on is that we should settle our bill. How much to you think that should be? Whatever figure that the EU has plucked out of the air?

Apparently we are supposed to give them a ball park figure which we haven't as yet come up with but have to over the next two weeks.

Moby

ukcarper wrote: »

That's about a vote in parliament not a referendum and I'd be very surprised when shove comes to push there would be enough rebels.

...and what if parliament votes down the deal....what happens next. The momentum will grow to put it to the people imo.

vivatifosi

ukcarper wrote: »

That's about a vote in parliament not a referendum and I'd be very surprised when shove comes to push there would be enough rebels.

It never ceases to amaze me how much trouble making there is in the Tory party. They have what they want: government, and the brexiters have obtained the positions of power that they want.

Yet they still can't control their own naked ambition enough to control rebellion and get on with the job.

There is a real risk that this government will fall, caused by problems of their own making, from calling unnecessary elections to weak leadership to failing to quell rebellion.

So for all the talk of another referendum (there won't be), the real risk now to the hard brexit camp is that the government will fall, triggering a general election as a proxy. This will lead to enough remainers and soft brexiters holding their nose and voting for Corbyn. At that point you get something more akin to Norway under Keir Starmer.

If hard brexiters really and truly want a hard brexit, they need to knock their heads together and collaborate.

ukcarper

Moby wrote: »

Apparently we are supposed to give them a ball park figure which we haven't as yet come up with but have to over the next two weeks.

No we haven't given them a figure they like and from where I sit that's thier original demands.

ukcarper

vivatifosi wrote: »

It never ceases to amaze me how much trouble making there is in the Tory party. They have what they want: government, and the brexiters have obtained the positions of power that they want.

Yet they still can't control their own naked ambition enough to control rebellion and get on with the job.

There is a real risk that this government will fall, caused by problems of their own making, from calling unnecessary elections to weak leadership to failing to quell rebellion.

So for all the talk of another referendum (there won't be), the real risk now to the hard brexit camp is that the government will fall, triggering a general election as a proxy. This will lead to enough remainers and soft brexiters holding their nose and voting for Corbyn. At that point you get something more akin to Norway under Keir Starmer.

If hard brexiters really and truly want a hard brexit, they need to knock their heads together and collaborate.

As I said when push comes to shove they will not vote against government let's not forget thier are Labour MPs who support brexit or are in constituencies that voted strongly for brexit..

Rinoa

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

A fair starting offer would be £40 billion plus our fees to remain in for the transition period.

The divorce bill was only deamt up by Brussells after the referendum,when they realised the EU would fall apart without UK contributions.

It's not in the EU rule book. It has no legal standing. Neither 'project fear' nor ardent remainers such as youself ever referred to it before the referendum as an argument for staying in.

Now you think it perfectly reasonable to cough up £40/50/60Bn+ and be blackmailed without a fight, hoping they'll be kind and throw us a few scraps in the trade negotiations.

Well, some of us are made of sterner stuff.

Eric_the_half_a_bee

Rinoa wrote: »

The divorce bill was only deamt up by Brussells after the referendum,when they realised the EU would fall apart without UK contributions.

It's not in the EU rule book. It has no legal standing. Neither 'project fear' nor ardent remainers such as youself ever referred to it before the referendum as an argument for staying in.

It's curious, isn't it, how it is obvious now that we have to pay, but wasn't obvious before the referendum?

setmefree2

vivatifosi wrote: »

There is a real risk that this government will fall,

As long as it has the support of the DUP it won't fall.

The elite remainer politicians and the media are trying there hardest however to bring it down. Imho they will fail.

setmefree2

Rinoa wrote: »

It's not in the EU rule book. It has no legal standing..

That's the problem. The EU are trying to get the UK government to sign something to make it legal before they will start trade talks which will take away all the UK goverment's leverage. I don't see how the UK government can do that.