Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Moby

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Indeed.

The problem is, those the most inclined to vote for 'disruptive change' also seem to have an enormous entitlement complex that the costs of that change should be born by everyone else except them.

But anyway....

I had a rather interesting lunch while in London last week with an old school friend who has spent the last 25 years working in the civil service and is now at quite a senior level.

Their take on Brexit is that it's an unholy mess.

So much of a mess that nobody in the civil service believes it will be resolved in the next 10 to 15 years anyway, and that it will consume almost all of the resources of government for the next two or three parliaments to the cost of everything else voters care about.

To sum up their opinion, politicians refuse to tell voters the truth (specifically around the EU and immigration) as voters don't want to believe them, so it'd cost them their seats if they tried.

But achieving what voters think they want on those topics would be so destructive to the economy and society, that if ever delivered, it would cost them their seats regardless.

So they muddle, obfuscate, and delay, waiting for social attitudes and/or the demographics to change so the very few achievable courses of action become politically palatable as well.

This is my take on it as well. Just think what has been happening. May does not believe in the direction being taken by her Brexit Sec. The advice she receives from her Civil Servants tells her how damaging it will be. She can't remove him so she does what she has done before, she cuts him and his deputy out and follows a different path which results in a different white paper which she produces at Chequers and everyone has to accept it.

Apart from the deceit involved, the lengths she has gone to indicates how bad she and her Civil Servants think Brexit will be for our future.

cogito

There is an alternative view that the Civil Service are working actively to frustrate the Brexit process rather than working to ensure that it proceeds in an orderly manner. Steve Baker has given that as one of the reasons behind his resignation.

Perhaps the CS is afraid that it might actually have to do some work after Brexit instead of rubber stamping legislation handed down from Brussels.

Herzlos

I dare say there's some of that as well.

But what I don't get, is that if it anyone thought it would be successful, why hasn't that vision been pished anywhere? All we're getting is damage limitation, dishes and delays.

Moby

cogito wrote: »

There is an alternative view that the Civil Service are working actively to frustrate the Brexit process rather than working to ensure that it proceeds in an orderly manner. Steve Baker has given that as one of the reasons behind his resignation.

Perhaps the CS is afraid that it might actually have to do some work after Brexit instead of rubber stamping legislation handed down from Brussels.

The Civil Service can't do anything in a major policy area without being directed to. The Chequers white paper came from Downing Street.

vivatifosi

In all seriousness, what on earth was David Davis doing for the past two years?

It's all very well to diss the PM's plan, but where can I go read his? And why had he met Barnier so few times? He's been spectacularly unimpressive.

cogito

Moby wrote: »

The Civil Service can't do anything in a major policy area without being directed to. The Chequers white paper came from Downing Street.

Absolutely not. The belief that the Civil Service simply carries out the wishes of the government is naive at best. They have huge influence over what governments are able to do. Yes, Minister was very close to the truth.

bugslet

vivatifosi wrote: »

In all seriousness, what on earth was David Davis doing for the past two years?

It's all very well to diss the PM's plan, but where can I go read his? And why had he met Barnier so few times? He's been spectacularly unimpressive.

I'm not sure if it will answer you question fully viva, but in yesterdays Times, he wrote an article titled 'May has left our fingers in the EU mangle but there is a way to get free'.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/may-has-left-our-fingers-in-the-eu-mangle-but-there-is-a-way-to-get-free-s0v09bt83

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

vivatifosi wrote: »

In all seriousness, what on earth was David Davis doing for the past two years?

It's all very well to diss the PM's plan, but where can I go read his? And why had he met Barnier so few times? He's been spectacularly unimpressive.

According to my friend Davis is actually quite likeable and a good communicator and negotiator in person, but has a reputation for being easily frustrated by complicated details and a bit lazy when it comes to preparation, preferring to wing it on the day.

Con Home has published an old draft of Davis and DexEU's ideas for a Canadian style FTA - but I understand this idea was dead on arrival once the CEOs of some of Britain's largest manufacturing employers met May in 10 Downing St earlier this year and told her in no uncertain terms they would be forced to move large parts or all of their businesses out of the UK were an FTA to end up the way the UK proceeded.

The numbers involved, both for lost jobs and lost tax revenues, were apparently staggering, and according to my friend anyway, also in many cases discussed under NDA at DexEU's request as the pro-Brexit team there didn't want the public to get spooked by the scale of what was being suggested as the likely impact.

Filo25

cogito wrote: »

Absolutely not. The belief that the Civil Service simply carries out the wishes of the government is naive at best. They have huge influence over what governments are able to do. Yes, Minister was very close to the truth.

Just a thought here, but if people like the ERG group were so passionate about leaving the EU for so many years, you would think they would have had a clearer plan about what they wanted to do when they actually got their way.

So far I haven't heard the semblance of a plan from most of them, just a long list of things they don't want and a firm believe that if we stamp our feet and say no for long enough the EU will eventually give us what we want.

I'm not sure you can blame civil servants for that, they may think the whole thing is crazy but if they were given a meaningful plan to follow I don't see that they would have much choice but to follow it or to resign.

kabayiri

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

...
The problem is, those the most inclined to vote for 'disruptive change' also seem to have an enormous entitlement complex that the costs of that change should be born by everyone else except them.
...

How can any individual judge everyone else on their view of cost of change, before you ask them?

That's the height of arrogance IMO.

Just let everyone make a choice in a nationwide referendum, and hope they vote honestly to reflect their true desires.

I know it's very James O Brien to speak on behalf of people, but it's that liberal elite attitude which got us into this mess.