Brexit, the economy and house prices (Part 3)

cogito

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Their hands are tied. Even if Merkel wins another term. Then she still needs to form a colition Government. As will have no overall majority. Allied to this there's other EU matters on the go.

Berlin and Paris struggle to bridge euro zone reform gap



http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-eurozone-france-germany-idUKKCN1BB2AN

That's not as easy as it might seem. Latest polls put Merkel and her coalition partners on less than 50%. It's not out of the question that she'll fail to secure a majority unless she enlists the support of AfD and that's unlikely.

Tromking

"Mr Davis claims it's natural that the UK would want to "interrogate rigorously" any demand placed on its taxpayers. But he is also careful to note that Britain is a country that meets its obligations - moral as well as legal; it just expects them to be properly specified."

This seems to be the kernel of the problem. Wholly predictable when democratically accountable politicians butt up against time served EU technocrats who seem incapable or are perhaps precluded from thinking outwith their position papers. Glad to be leaving this monolithic thinking behind to be honest.

GreatApe

ukcarper wrote: »

4.5% compared to 17.7% in Spain 11.3% in Italy and 9.4% in Portugal.

Also have you any proof of that as from what I can tell we have higher disposable income than all those countries.

Those figures are what is quoted often in the press, the more meaningful figure is the 12+ month unemployment figures which are about 25% of the normal quoted press figures

So for instance in the UK what I would call 'actual unemployment' is close to 1% that is to say 75% of our unemployed find a job within a year actually most find a job within 3 months.

This is why economists often suggest 5% unemployment is 'full employment' they are not discounting 5% of people they just realize that the bulk of that 5% is churn in the labor force.

BTW one exception to this seems to be Greece where 75% of their unemployed are long term so either they really are totally economically different from the majority of the other EU nations or maybe Greece just say more people written off by the state it sure has more of a black market so maybe a lot more of Greece unemployed are in the grey and black market

economic

greece is like a third world country in many respects.

vivatifosi

Wow, hadn't seen these net contribution numbers before. Per capita it's even scarier (for us and the Dutch):

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-41111994

BobQ

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Absolutely spot-on.

The UK have kept the EU on the back foot since the referendum in a variety of ways - roundly ignored of course by pro-EU protagonists.
575 days and counting & as you say, it really is very obvious who is "rattled". As time progresses I expect further outbursts from senior eurocrats. The clock is indeed ticking Monsieur Barmier; now for how long will you hold your nerve?
:T

Nit sure that they are rattled but I do agree that the EU negotiators are trying to stick to an unreasonable plan. The one thing that might unite the divided UK public is the intransigence of the EU.

posh*spice

Tromking wrote: »

"Mr Davis claims it's natural that the UK would want to "interrogate rigorously" any demand placed on its taxpayers. But he is also careful to note that Britain is a country that meets its obligations - moral as well as legal; it just expects them to be properly specified."

This seems to be the kernel of the problem. Wholly predictable when democratically accountable politicians butt up against time served EU technocrats who seem incapable or are perhaps precluded from thinking outwith their position papers. Glad to be leaving this monolithic thinking behind to be honest.

Do the Leaders of the EU27 really think the British Tax payer is going to put up with this shti?

posh*spice

vivatifosi wrote: »

Wow, hadn't seen these net contribution numbers before. Per capita it's even scarier (for us and the Dutch):

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-41111994

The whole thing has become a dreadful racket - like the vatican.

BobQ

I have to say that the Government's position paper on Dispute Resolution seems a reasonable proposal for a way forward. I really cannot see why Barnier rejects it as unacceptable.

BobQ

posh*spice wrote: »

Do the Leaders of the EU27 really think the British Tax payer is going to put up with this shti?

Notwithstanding my view that we would have been better off in the out, I agree that their attitude could just turn the UK public even more against the EU through its arrogance. That said until the figures and justification are set out in a way that can be challenged we will never know.

It really is a complete mess I feel.