Brexit, the economy and house prices (Part 3)

Conrad

Morrisons reports rising sales and profits - it seems they are adapting to changing consumer habits;


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41264273


Morrisons recently signed a deal to become the UK wholesale supplier to convenience store chain McColls.


It has also formed a tie-up with Amazon and has invested in its range of "premium" products.

Conrad

Filo25 wrote: »

If that did happen they would no doubt just blame unreasonable British demands, in exactly the same way our press here blames unrealistic EU demands.

I don't doubt they would seek to blame us, but the Irish people wont fall for it as they will here us saying we want free trade.

Moby

stator wrote: »

Remoaners still going on about money. None of them care about sovereignty or freedom. All they want is their cheap european holidays. Completely disconnected from the reality of the rest of the UK

National sovereignty is so 20th century. the world is getting smaller, national boundaries need to be reduced, (sensibly of course). Regarding freedom....I do like freedom, especially the freedom of movement the EU gave me.

TrickyTree83

Theophile wrote: »

Same old, same old....
We are so important. They need us more than we need them. Prosecco and Mercs eh.
Brexiteers' delusions of Empire....

No, you're spouting the same old journo propaganda. You've just not looked at the data.

What Conrad is talking about is the economic implications. I've gone over this before but as you're new I'll dig the post out for you...

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=72336386&postcount=18124

Germany - we're the 3rd largest market

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/germany/exports-by-country

Spain - we're the 4th largest market

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/spain/exports-by-country

Belgium - we're the 4th largest market

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/belgium/exports-by-country

Netherlands - we're the 3rd largest market

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/netherlands/exports-by-country

France - we're the 5th largest market

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/france/exports-by-country

Poland - we're the 2nd largest market

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/poland/exports-by-country

Italy - we're the 4th largest market

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/italy/exports-by-country

Ireland - we're the 2nd largest market

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/ireland/exports-by-country

and on... and on...

Just for balance, here's what those markets mean to the UK.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/exports-by-country

Then factor the net contributions to the EU budget in:



Edit: It appears the Beeb are woefully inaccurate.



If these trade barriers are going to hurt the UK, they are going to hurt the whole of the EU at the same time.

Any country with whom we are in the top 5 export destinations can expect to take a large hit. It just so happens that the net contributors are part of that group too.

EU net contributors GDP shrinks = smaller EU budget.

UK contribution disappears = smaller EU budget.

Could ask the stronger economies to pay more? So they'll be paying more whilst losing export revenue (Germany and France in particular, see Deloitte report on automotive industry for further example information on the impact of higher value exports).

( Deloitte Report )

So on the whole a smaller EU budget which affects the economies of the net recipient nations as well as the net contributor nations. Every member of the EU will take a hit whether they trade with us or not.

CKhalvashi

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

No, you're spouting the same old journo propaganda. You've just not looked at the data.

What Conrad is talking about is the economic implications. I've gone over this before but as you're new I'll dig the post out for you...

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=72336386&postcount=18124





Then factor this in:



If these trade barriers are going to hurt the UK, they are going to hurt the whole of the EU at the same time.

Any country with whom we are in the top 5 export destinations can expect to take a large hit. It just so happens that the net contributors are part of that group too.

EU net contributors GDP shrinks = smaller EU budget.

UK contribution disappears = smaller EU budget.

Could ask the stronger economies to pay more? So they'll be paying more whilst losing export revenue (Germany and France in particular, see Deloitte report on automotive industry for further example information on the impact of higher value exports).

So on the whole a smaller EU budget which affects the economies of the net recipient nations as well as the net contributor nations. Every member of the EU will take a hit whether they trade with us or not.

Just out of interest then, what have consecutive governments done to get that trade deficit down, thus making the membership of the EU for the UK even more cost effective than it is now?

Why are more British businesses not dealing with the EU? Also, what has put EU companies (especially technology) in the position where they haven't set up in the UK?

You can't blame the EU for attempting to support what is in the second paragraph I've written when the domestic governments over the same timeframe haven't supported the programmes that are on offer. Therefore, the fault lies largely with the British government and not with the European Union.

Conrad does speak about the economic implications however the largest economic implication for the UK has in the past been about not utilising what the country has available to it as a result of it not being supported to the full extent by the governments in power at the time.

Theophile

So we have a £25 billion trade deficit with Germany.
Germany's total exports are around $1.3 trillion annually.
Really, we're not that important.

Theophile

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Then factor the net contributions to the EU budget in:

Our net contribution is around 3-4 billion?
That's good to know.

TrickyTree83

CKhalvashi wrote: »

Just out of interest then, what have consecutive governments done to get that trade deficit down, thus making the membership of the EU for the UK even more cost effective than it is now?

Why are more British businesses not dealing with the EU? Also, what has put EU companies (especially technology) in the position where they haven't set up in the UK?

You can't blame the EU for attempting to support what is in the second paragraph I've written when the domestic governments over the same timeframe haven't supported the programmes that are on offer. Therefore, the fault lies largely with the British government and not with the European Union.

Conrad does speak about the economic implications however the largest economic implication for the UK has in the past been about not utilising what the country has available to it as a result of it not being supported to the full extent by the governments in power at the time.

I couldn't possibly explain why numerous UK governments didn't foresee a Leave vote and do more to combat the trade deficit. I guess they're like me and unable to tell the future.

The data is quite plain and stark. I'd prefer to let the data speak for itself with regards to future implications with trade barriers in place.

Moby

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/14/hmrc-chief-warns-post-brexit-border-and-tax-checks-could-cost-up-to-800m More red tape can be expected not less with Brexit.

Zero_Gravitas

Conrad wrote: »

What are you going to say when you realise we are prospering like billyo quite soon?

I don't buy all this long term benefits, the benefits will be aparent very quickly.

The first sign of any prospering will be a Conservative Party feeding frenzy as the usual suspects will run for leadership to take the credit.

Really not going to hold my breath though...