Brexit, the economy and house prices (Part 3)

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

Just now on the Sky paper review the guests were discussing the obesity crisis and how it seems immune from State actions over years.

But you think we eat the right amount? Who knew!

Some people eat the wrong stuff. Particularly the poor since crap food is usually cheaper. Same goes for exercise; working poor are less likely to exercise than the working rich.

Herzlos

stator wrote: »

Remoaners still going on about money. None of them care about sovereignty or freedom. All they want is their cheap european holidays. Completely disconnected from the reality of the rest of the UK

Because we know that Brexit will make no difference to sovereignty or freedom.

If you're so keen on sovereignty and democracy; what do you feel about the power grab element of the great repeal bill? Why aren't you out campaigning against it? That's a far bigger threat to your ideals than anything the eu has ever done.

System

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

In which case it might be advisable to say that it is your opinion rather than giving the forum an impression of a statement of fact.

You do try. Only a pedant would've taken my mutterings as a statement of fact. I look forward to you, as the Captain Mainwaring forum defender of the truth, issuing such advice to those whose opinions dressed as fact you agree with.

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Oh and any evidence of your alleged "select committee investigating the non-progress of negotiations"? Because if there is any I must have missed it. Thank you.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-negotiations-latest-mps-launch-inquiry-uk-government-strategy-minimal-progress-eu-juncker-a7946471.html

MPs have launched an inquiry into the state of Brexit negotiations after the latest round ended in recriminations about a lack of progress.

The Exiting the EU Select Committee will explore the strategy of the UK Government, as well as try to determine whether it has the capability to manage the process effectively.

The last round of talks ended with Brussels claiming Britain is “backtracking” on commitments, while the UK argued that the mandate given to the EU’s chief negotiator was preventing progress.

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

But since we're on opinion and since you've had yours, here's mine:

May has said she will make a Brexit statement which will very probably rile most remainers and the senior Eurocrats whilst Hammond "stirs the pot" in meeting the Visegrad group, keeping the EU's Brexit team on the back foot as they have been ever since before Article 50 was put forward.

The UK's vehement pro-EU/pro-remain protagonists will continue their efforts to decry every possible angle relating to Brexit that they can and continue with their fabrication of possibilities, just as they have since before our referendum.

Sadly they will continue to largely if not completely ignore not only the facts so far, but the possibility that Brexit will not result in the sky falling on their heads.

The dread of what the contents of TM's forthcoming speech will be is palpable amongst certain of the pro-remain/pro-EU contingency.
That alone is enough to cheer many.

Respect your opinion and everything but you appear to inhabit a parallel universe.

Theophile

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

The dread of what the contents of TM's forthcoming speech will be is palpable amongst certain of the pro-remain/pro-EU contingency.

Is it? Hadn't noticed.
But then again, I don't have my finger on the pro-EU contingency's pulse like you do.
My guess is that Theresa will make some earth shattering revelation in the vein of "We are leaving the EU, but not leaving Europe". Stay tuned.

TrickyTree83

Theophile wrote: »

What are you going to say when you realise we aren't?
Blame the EU? Blame the Remoaners?

http://uk.businessinsider.com/uk-economy-john-lewis-next-dunelm-retail-slowdown-consumer-spending-brexit-growth-gdp-2017-9

That's hilarious.

John Lewis and Next join the growing list of retailers and restaurants that have warned of a consumer slowdown;

I don't think I can tell the public what I know, but it has resulted in the share price of Next rising steeply. They are seeing such strong sales right now (I think that's as much as I can say), it doesn't resemble what the journalist is claiming particularly for the date it is was published even if Next did tell that to the journalist, the actual reality on the inside is something very different.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/market_reports/183957/ftse-100-closes-firmly-lower-as-pound-strengthens-next-surges-183957.html

https://www.ft.com/content/fc619ea8-6593-3f21-a7f1-eb9eb94f44f0

https://www.directorstalkinterviews.com/market-risers-marks-spencer-group-plc-next-plc-powerhouse-energy-group-plc/412735344

http://invezz.com/news/equities/27223-Next-share-price-skyrockets-as-group-upgrades-sales-and-profits-guidance-

Shares in Next (LON:NXT) have rallied in London this morning, as the retailer lifted its sales and profit guidance, having seen ‘encouraging’ trading over the past three months.

Conrad

Theophile wrote: »

Is it? Hadn't noticed.
But then again, I don't have my finger on the pro-EU contingency's pulse like you do.
My guess is that Theresa will make some earth shattering revelation in the vein of "We are leaving the EU, but not leaving Europe". Stay tuned.

Just pause a second a think about the Brexit trade deal matter again;


If Project Fear is correct & we are not offered a good trade deal, then the following could occur;


1) UK economy might go into recession. Recessions ripple out as we know so other European economies would be hit


2) EU firms sales to UK would reduce due to barriers & tariffs. So for example the 9% of Holland's exports UK bound would reduce


3) So the jobs & incomes of the 4/5 million EU citizens engaged in trade could be compromised


4) In turn taxes would fall on the back of reduced activity




Who benefits?

Theophile

Conrad wrote: »

Just pause a second a think about the Brexit trade deal matter again;


If Project Fear is correct & we are not offered a good trade deal as this then the following will occur;


1) UK economy might go into recession. Recessions ripple out as we know so other European economies would be hit


2) EU firms sales to UK would reduce due to barriers & tariffs. So for example the 9% of Holland's exports UK bound would reduce


3) So the jobs & incomes of the 4/5 million EU citizens engaged in trade could be compromised


4) In turn taxes would fall on the back of reduced activity




Who benefits?

Same old, same old....
We are so important. They need us more than we need them. Prosecco and Mercs eh.
Brexiteers' delusions of Empire....

Boredatwrork

Theophile wrote: »

Same old, same old....
We are so important. They need us more than we need them. Prosecco and Mercs eh.
Brexiteers' delusions of Empire....

Would you prefer to write us off, is that the message we should be sending to the EU, will that gets us a better deal do you think?

Even if it's not true, do you think underselling is the key.

Conrad

Theophile wrote: »

Same old, same old....
We are so important. They need us more than we need them. Prosecco and Mercs eh.
Brexiteers' delusions of Empire....

So Ireland will merrily go along with massive self-harm given 17% of her total exports are UK bound (44% if you strip-out foreign owned firms)?


The usual Remainer response is to say Ireland / France et al 'will just focus on selling more to the EU'. This bares no scrutiny, if it was that easy to magic new customers they would have done it long ago.
Or that 'EU solidarity is more important than jobs and business'. Really?


So answer the question if you would, Ireland will merrily sign up to massive self-harm? Workers will think what of far away Brussels elites harming their livelihood's?

Filo25

Conrad wrote: »

So Ireland will merrily go along with massive self-harm given 17% of her total exports are UK bound (44% if you strip-out foreign owned firms)?


The usual Remainer response is to say Ireland / France et al 'will just focus on selling more to the EU'. This bares no scrutiny, if it was that easy to magic new customers they would have done it long ago.
Or that 'EU solidarity is more important than jobs and business'. Really?


So answer the question if you would, Ireland will merrily sign up to massive self-harm? Workers will think what of far away Brussels elites harming their livelihood's?

If that did happen they would no doubt just blame unreasonable British demands, in exactly the same way our press here blames unrealistic EU demands.

I'd be amazed if it did happen though as I do think we will give ground in a lot of areas, and either end up with a softish Brexit or a transitional deal for a few years which kicks the can down the road a bit.