Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

gfplux

And

ilovehouses wrote: »

Oh, you're posting pure speculation in an ironic rather than hypocritical way.



Good for British retail. I don't think brexit is going to be devastating for the UK economy but there are some signs all is not rosy and the negatives could well be brexit related.

It seems the most likely outcome from the shambles of brexit is 5 - 10 years of an economy performing less well than it otherwise would have done. After that we'll be in another world anyway where they'll do things differently.

Brexit has been the only agenda item for the best part of two years. It's led to the resignation of a PM, a vanity GE that didn't go to plan, and, now a PM who doesn't have the confidence of her party let alone the country.

Even Mr Sunshine Brexit himself (Conrad) would surely admit this would be an unconventional path to prosperity.

I fear you are correct. In addition from the west (USA) as all things "modern" has come retail and shopping malls are in trouble.
For Britain Brexit will only speed up their decline .

In a strange way the decline of the shop and the change to the internet are all mixed up with destructive changes like Brexit. A small temporary downturn can trigger changes that otherwise would take a couple of decades.
Sorry TMI.

mayonnaise

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Mock if you must but their record is methinks far superior to yours.
Such predictions are one of the many things that they are globally highly-regarded for.
Pricewaterhouse Coopers:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PricewaterhouseCoopers

Pricewaterhouse Coopers:

https://order-order.com/2017/02/07/pwcs-serious-economic-shock-turns-into-brexit-boom/

Before the referendum the EU-funded PricewaterhouseCoopers wrote the infamous CBI report claiming Brexit would cause a “serious economic shock”, costing £100 billion and 1 million jobs. Today they have performed a screeching u-turn, now claiming Brexit will lead Britain into an economic boom.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

ilovehouses wrote: »

PWC didn't manage to spot the BT accounting scandal and signed off the accounts.

Anyone who thinks they can forecast GDP growth 30 hence (or thinks they can spot someone who can) is either off the scale in terms of predictive ability or a delusional fool. Odds are it's the latter.

I feel certain that The Independent, The Telegraph and The Week who all covered this PwC report will love you describing them as "delusional fools" since it appears that they all "spotted someone who can".

mayonnaise wrote: »

Pricewaterhouse Coopers:

https://order-order.com/2017/02/07/pwcs-serious-economic-shock-turns-into-brexit-boom/

*Yawn*
Nice try but the piece referred to was widely acknowledged as being propagandist pro-EU and was funded by the CBI.
Your own link shows this clearly if you read it.
As such it is only one of countless others as I say just a few posts above in #891.

mayonnaise

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Nice try but the piece referred to was widely acknowledged as being propagandist pro-EU and was funded by the CBI.

Says a lot about the integrity of PwC.

Conrad

ilovehouses wrote: »

It seems the most likely outcome from the shambles of brexit is 5 - 10 years of an economy performing less well than it otherwise would have done.

Would you consider the positives they may come from Brexit?


+ "The UK is the leading exporter of financial services globally”


However, over the next 10 – 15 years, 90% of global economic growth is expected to be generated outside Europe


http://uk.businessinsider.com/brexit-once-in-a-generation-opportunity-to-embrace-emerging-markets-2017-1




+ Import goods tariff free we currently pay tariffs on across the world


+ Complete autonomy and local decision making tailor made to our needs and aims


+ Make most of the fact 85%+ of growth is set to come from outside EU in next 15 yrs


+ Ability to carry on trading well with EU but now free to make the most of our status as worlds top soft power with deep and historic links


+ Ability to set up rapid trade deals (US - Australia took 14 months)




+ Importing is our problem, exporting is our saviour. Money spent on domestically produced goods benefits everyone because it stimulates the economy - the multiplier effect.


Quote:


•The multiplier effect comes about because injections of new demand for goods and services into the circular flow of income stimulate further rounds of spending – in other words “one person’s spending is another’s income”


•This can lead to a bigger eventual final effect on output and employment

Conrad

Arklight wrote: »

They don't get globalisation, they don't get how globally interconnected producing any kind of product, tangible or service based, actually is.

They don't get that in order to compete globally people need to be able to move quickly to EU countries


.

By implication you are inferring Japan, Canada, Australia, USA et al are suffering as independent nations. EVIDENCE PLEASE.

cogito

Herzlos wrote: »

I've not seen any suggestion that this might be the case. There's an argument that people become more conservative over time, but that doesn't correlate to the EU.

Here you are then:

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/

There's very clear evidence that as people get older, the more likely they are to vote leave. That applies to every age group.

Herzlos

cogito wrote: »

Here you are then:

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/

There's very clear evidence that as people get older, the more likely they are to vote leave. That applies to every age group.

That's saying that currently older people are more likely to have voted leave. I don't think it's saying that as people get older in the future, they'll switch from remain to leave. i.e. I don't think it's age that's the factor, but other generational factors like exposure to the EU.

So I don't think we can predict anything about how people will vote in 50 years time, as we've no idea what those that haven't been born yet will think of the EU.

All we've seen so far is that less people seem to be in favour of Brexit now, than 12 months ago.

andrewf75

cogito wrote: »

Here you are then:

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/

There's very clear evidence that as people get older, the more likely they are to vote leave. That applies to every age group.

There is clearly a big age divide on the EU, but there is no evidence to suggest that people’s views change as they age. It is a generational thing. I doubt the average older leave voter was pro-EU in their younger years.

cogito

andrewf75 wrote: »

There is clearly a big age divide on the EU, but there is no evidence to suggest that people’s views change as they age. It is a generational thing. I doubt the average older leave voter was pro-EU in their younger years.

Have you actually read the link that I posted? If you did, then I fail to see how you could possibly conclude that there is no evidence that peoples' views chane when they very clearly do. Young people are very starry eyed when it comes to the EU. They think that it's all about being part of one big happy family with benevolent leaders who have their interests at heart. Oh, and they can travel round Europe with euros in their pocket and cross borders without showing their passports.

I may not be the average voter but I was pro the Common Market which had been sold as a free trade area and not the overarching super-state with its own army etc. which it clearly aspires to be. It was only when the Mastricht treaty was being negotiated that it became clear to me and many others that the EU was something that we did not want to be part of.