Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

https://s23.postimg.org/5tnpea3qz/DEHR92_IWs_AAu_Pzc_1.jpg

Any Context?

gfplux

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Andrew Bailey the FCA CEO says London will survive Brexit:

http://www.cityam.com/267967/fca-chief-executive-says-restrictions-trade-not-inevitable

http://www.standard.co.uk/business/city-watchdog-andrew-bailey-backs-london-to-survive-brexit-but-calls-for-transition-deal-a3581431.html

Just like Hiroshima and Nagasaki survived the Atom Bomb.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Herzlos wrote: »

Correct, by what, 1.3%?

Yup, because it was offset by a -3.6% growth figure from last year. This gives is a growth figure of 4.9ppt, the highest in 6 years, but growth itself was only 1.3% It's not a bad figure, but it's not a record by any stretch. Agreed?

I'm not even arguing about the figures, I'm arguing that it's not as good a sign as you claim, because the article points out that it's unsustainable and consumer confidence is still in decline.

So I'll agree - the retail sector hasn't collapsed. I never said it would.
Is the future looking good? Not particularly.

:T
Hurrah.

Now, is the future looking good?
Shorter term perhaps not.
Medium- to longer-term yes it is. Many major economists support that viewpoint.
HOWEVER what many seem to ignore is that most pro-leave advocates never said that leaving would be trouble- or cost-free.

Ever since the EU referendum was announced we have been bombarded with negativity regarding what would happen if, as a country, we voted to leave.
This has not in any way eased since the referendum, so we have had this continually for quite some time.
Why does this matter?

A self-fulfilling prophecy is a prediction that directly or indirectly causes itself to become true, by the very terms of the prophecy itself, due to positive feedback between belief and behavior.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-fulfilling_prophecy

cogito

Arklight wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/06/britain-world-sidelines-brexit-trump-theresa-may-g20





Since the referendum, about 2% of Leave voters have died of old age, and been replaced by voting age Millennials who fervently do not want Brexit, or recognise the boomers' peculiar and parochial (to them) vision of patriotism.


By the time we leave in 2019, 5% of Leavers will have died and been replaced by Remain voters, enough to bury Leave in a further referendum.


As even thinking about Brexit is turning into total chaos, and even the guy associated with that stupid bus no longer wants it, maybe it's time to stop pretending it will happen, upset a few bilious Sun and Mail readers, and call the whole thing off.

In your opinion. As people get older, they are more able to see the EU for what it is and change their minds so the chances are that leavers who die will be replaced by former remainers.

In my opinion (which is just as good as yours).

gfplux

Conrad wrote: »

The policy chief of the City of London Corporation has said Brexit will not be a catastrophe for the Square Mile - and to suggest otherwise would be a return to the worst accusations thrown around during the referendum campaign.

http://www.cityam.com/267979/city-london-corporation-brexit-not-catastrophe

BUT, BUT, BUT he's an expert!!!!

gfplux

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Any ill-effects from Brexit will only be a "short-term blip" according to a PwC Study - and the UK will outpace the G7 in growth for decades to come!




http://www.theweek.co.uk/brexit/81116/brexit-hasnt-dimmed-londons-tech-appeal/page/0/10

But, but, but PWC are Experts!!!

Herzlos

cogito wrote: »

In your opinion. As people get older, they are more able to see the EU for what it is and change their minds so the chances are that leavers who die will be replaced by former remainers.

In my opinion (which is just as good as yours).

I've not seen any suggestion that this might be the case. There's an argument that people become more conservative over time, but that doesn't correlate to the EU.

I'm not sure what will happen to EU stance as people age, but younger voters now are more likely to be more culturally exposed than todays pensioners, due to the changes in media and education. So I'd be fairly confident that people aren't going to start changing their stance on the EU just because they age. They may based on when they grew up though.

mayonnaise

gfplux wrote: »

But, but, but PWC are Experts!!!

Experts who can predict GDP growth rate for the next 33 years.

gfplux

Arklight wrote: »

We just need these people out of the way before they do irrepearable damage to the UK. I don't want to just blame boomers and / or retired people, because it isn't just them. But there is a common mindset among the Brexit people and it boils down to them just not understanding the modern world.


They just don't get it. They don't get globalisation, they don't get how globally interconnected producing any kind of product, tangible or service based, actually is. They don't get that education is global and that smart educated people are running the world now.


They don't get that waving a flag around is all very nice but in the time you spent doing that 15 Chinese start ups identified a Britsh business to compete with and you have no idea who they are.


They don't get that in order to compete globally people need to be able to move quickly to EU countries and establish themselves there rather than spending months sitting in their mushrooms in the UK writing paper based job applications to France and hoping that in another year or two they might get an offer and a visa.


It's actually astonishing quite how little they do get. They don't appear to understand, or want to. Considering how divided they are, and what a failure the rallying call of th election was, it's a good time for Remain to shunt them out of the way and put the brakes on Brexit.

What a wonderful post. The wrecking ball that is Brexit is just not understood.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

mayonnaise wrote: »

Experts who can predict GDP growth rate for the next 33 years.

Mock if you must but their record is methinks far superior to yours.
Such predictions are one of the many things that they are globally highly-regarded for.
Pricewaterhouse Coopers:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PricewaterhouseCoopers