Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

Herzlos

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Despite supposed doom & gloom, British retail is having the best time in years!

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-retail-idUKKBN19R382

Did you read the article, it says such things like:

"Retailers will take heart from consumers’ willingness to spend, but there is evidence shoppers are delving into their savings which is clearly not a sustainable position," said Sophie Michael, head of retail and wholesale at BDO.

and

Reports from retailers themselves have been mixed.

and

Britain's economy has slowed as the rise in inflation since last year's Brexit vote and modest pay growth have hurt consumer spending. Recent surveys have shown a sharp drop in consumer confidence.

So we've got a record growth (not performance), partly because the figures from last year were awful. Then add in the sharp drop in consumer confidence and the unsustainable nature of the boost (digging into savings), it doesn't quite paint the rosy picture you were hoping to achieve, no?

mayonnaise

"This growth was off a negative base of -3.6 percent for the same month last year"

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Herzlos wrote: »

So we've got a record growth (not performance), partly because the figures from last year were awful. Then add in the sharp drop in consumer confidence and the unsustainable nature of the boost (digging into savings), it doesn't quite paint the rosy picture you were hoping to achieve, no?

You just don't like proof that the UK is not imploding, do you?
"Partly last year" - yet the best for SIX YEARS.
Any way, tough luck; them's the facts and - just like other facts posted - they will remain facts.

Moving on, and Cypus:

Michael Antoniou, director general of Cyprus Employers and Industrialists Federation, demanded Michel Barnier go easy on Britain in order to protect countries, like Cyprus, who rely on British trade.

http://www.newsincyprus.com/news/83109/don-039-t-punish-britain-cyprus-pleads-with-eu-to-keep-uk-close-to-protect-economy

Video of that plea here: http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/825593/Brexit-news-Cyprus-demands-European-Union-don-t-punish-UK-over-Brexit

Herzlos

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

You just don't like proof that the UK is not imploding, do you?

I'm just pointing out where your article doesn't match your claim.

I don't want the UK to implode, but I'm not going to take your word for it that the UK is booming, when your own citations are saying the opposite.

"Partly last year" - yet the best for SIX YEARS.

You understand how growth works, right?

Any way, tough luck; them's the facts and - just like other facts posted - they will remain facts.

Indeed. But the facts don't say what you claim they do.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Herzlos wrote: »

I'm just pointing out where your article doesn't match your claim. It is not "my" article and it is not "my" claim, it is that of Reuters which I have brought to this forum's attention. You do understand the distinction?

I don't want the UK to implode, but I'm not going to take your word for it that the UK is booming, when your own citations are saying the opposite.
Nor will you take the word of Reuters - if it doesn't suit your agenda, right?



You understand how growth works, right?
Absolutely, do you?
Is this year's growth as shown higher than last years or not?



Indeed. But the facts don't say what you claim they do.
Yes they do. Try reading again.

FACT: retail increased from last year.
FACT: this was the largest increase in six years.

How and why may well be open to debate but they nonetheless remain the facts.
Even if you do not like them.

mayonnaise

Brexit is easing the UK into recession like an old man lowering himself into a hot bath

Ever since the Brexit cliff failed to emerge, Leavers have been celebrating.

The UK economy continued to grow after the referendum vote to exit the EU a year ago. The Remainers were wrong: Apparently, we can have a strong economy without being attached to the EU.

But now, with the first three months of the two-year Article 50 period gone and no concrete progress to show, we're starting to see economic data that backs up the theory that the Brexit cliff will be more of a gentle, downward slope.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/uk-is-slipping-into-recession-2017-7

gfplux

andrewf75 wrote: »

It is obviously an advantage to control immigration directly. But what do you mean by too high? The people who voted Brexit thought immigration was too high, but the economy and business didn’t, they wanted the workers (Ok not all, but most) and high immigration is largely the reason why UK growth has been so strong!. Effectively the demand for labour controls immigration and whether people come in via freedom of movement to fill jobs or a controlled system is in place to bring in the precise workers needed the difference is likely to be very little. With an ageing population, the economy is going to continue to demand high immigration. So how are those whose main concern was reducing it going to take that?

If Britain wants to attract the BEST talent, post Brexit having to fill out forms and more importantly detail and explain why your immediate family should move to Britain with you will NOT ATTRACT the best.

Herzlos

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

FACT: retail increased from last year.

Correct, by what, 1.3%?

FACT: this was the largest increase in six years.

Yup, because it was offset by a -3.6% growth figure from last year. This gives is a growth figure of 4.9ppt, the highest in 6 years, but growth itself was only 1.3% It's not a bad figure, but it's not a record by any stretch. Agreed?

I'm not even arguing about the figures, I'm arguing that it's not as good a sign as you claim, because the article points out that it's unsustainable and consumer confidence is still in decline.

So I'll agree - the retail sector hasn't collapsed. I never said it would.
Is the future looking good? Not particularly.

gfplux

Filo25 wrote: »

The trade deficit is particularly surprising, given Sterling's depreciation and the fact that the UK now appears to be growing slower than the rest of the G7

Talking of the devaluation of the pound since the Referendum

It was brought to my Attention today that 50% of NHS Purchases, that is drugs and equipment (such as cancer drugs and MRI scanners) are imports. Soooo the devaluation WELCOMED by Brexiters is now costing more from the budget of the NHS

This must be a remainder lie???. Or an exaggeration.???

.

Conrad

https://s23.postimg.org/5tnpea3qz/DEHR92_IWs_AAu_Pzc_1.jpg