Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

gfplux

Reading the last page of posts by Brexiters they are suddenly quoting "experts" in post after post.
What made them suddenly welcome experts in from the cold? They have spent months telling us "Experts no nothing and exaggerate"

Herzlos

cogito wrote: »

The EU and Japan are nowhere near closing a deal. An agreement in principle has been reached. Nothing has been signed, sealed or delivered and major obstacles remain over EU dairy exports in particular. An agreement is at least a year away.

Fair point, the deal isn't expected to come into effect until 2019, just after we leave.

However, as pointed out, when will we have a deal in place with Japan? Will we still be regarded as the gateway to Europe if we've got less* access to the EU market than Japan, or less* access to the Japanese market than the EU does?

A big part of the reason for leaving the EU seems to be the ability to form trade deals outside of the EU, but it seems to me that the EU is well on the way to forming trade deals with most of the countries we're claiming we need to leave the EU to do a deal with.
That said, maybe there are some smaller countries we can leverage that the EU isn't doing so, like South Korea or some of South America. But none of them are as big as the Japanese or Canadian markets.

*I don't know if we'll have a better deal with the EU, or with Japan, than their counterparts, because we haven't negotiated anything yet.

Arklight

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/06/britain-world-sidelines-brexit-trump-theresa-may-g20

As the months have unfolded since the Brexit vote, most of the flippant deceptions of the leave campaign have collapsed. Few now swallow May’s talk of a clean Brexit, much less of a red, white and blue version. Most now grasp that, at best, Brexit will be a bundle of compromises, few of them advantageous. Almost no one apart from Liam Fox now thinks that, especially in the age of Trump, there is a viable or desirable Atlanticist, or even Anglosphere, alternative to the historic reality of Britain in Europe.

Since the referendum, about 2% of Leave voters have died of old age, and been replaced by voting age Millennials who fervently do not want Brexit, or recognise the boomers' peculiar and parochial (to them) vision of patriotism.


By the time we leave in 2019, 5% of Leavers will have died and been replaced by Remain voters, enough to bury Leave in a further referendum.


As even thinking about Brexit is turning into total chaos, and even the guy associated with that stupid bus no longer wants it, maybe it's time to stop pretending it will happen, upset a few bilious Sun and Mail readers, and call the whole thing off.

mayonnaise

Another day (month) in Brexitland.

Construction Output : -1.2%
https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/constructionindustry/bulletins/constructionoutputingreatbritain/may2017
Manufacturing Production : -0.2%
Industrial Production : -0.1%
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/output/bulletins/indexofproduction/may2017
Pound plunges as trade deficit widens by £2bn
http://www.cityam.com/268038/pound-plunges-deficit-widens

andrewf75

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Having control over immigration is different to bringing it down, the two are not intertwined.

If immigration is too high then if we have control we can deal with it. Within the EU if immigration is deemed too high we can only control approx. half of it, which includes those who immigrate into the EU and then migrate within the EU to the UK.

Control is different to volume. The ability to act in our own interests should be paramount.

It is obviously an advantage to control immigration directly. But what do you mean by too high? The people who voted Brexit thought immigration was too high, but the economy and business didn’t, they wanted the workers (Ok not all, but most) and high immigration is largely the reason why UK growth has been so strong!. Effectively the demand for labour controls immigration and whether people come in via freedom of movement to fill jobs or a controlled system is in place to bring in the precise workers needed the difference is likely to be very little. With an ageing population, the economy is going to continue to demand high immigration. So how are those whose main concern was reducing it going to take that?

Filo25

mayonnaise wrote: »

Another day (month) in Brexitland.

Construction Output : -1.2%
https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/constructionindustry/bulletins/constructionoutputingreatbritain/may2017
Manufacturing Production : -0.2%
Industrial Production : -0.1%
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/output/bulletins/indexofproduction/may2017
Pound plunges as trade deficit widens by £2bn
http://www.cityam.com/268038/pound-plunges-deficit-widens

The trade deficit is particularly surprising, given Sterling's depreciation and the fact that the UK now appears to be growing slower than the rest of the G7

Arklight

mayonnaise wrote: »

Another day (month) in Brexitland.

Construction Output : -1.2%
https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/constructionindustry/bulletins/constructionoutputingreatbritain/may2017
Manufacturing Production : -0.2%
Industrial Production : -0.1%
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/output/bulletins/indexofproduction/may2017
Pound plunges as trade deficit widens by £2bn
http://www.cityam.com/268038/pound-plunges-deficit-widens

We just need these people out of the way before they do irrepearable damage to the UK. I don't want to just blame boomers and / or retired people, because it isn't just them. But there is a common mindset among the Brexit people and it boils down to them just not understanding the modern world.


They just don't get it. They don't get globalisation, they don't get how globally interconnected producing any kind of product, tangible or service based, actually is. They don't get that education is global and that smart educated people are running the world now.


They don't get that waving a flag around is all very nice but in the time you spent doing that 15 Chinese start ups identified a Britsh business to compete with and you have no idea who they are.


They don't get that in order to compete globally people need to be able to move quickly to EU countries and establish themselves there rather than spending months sitting in their mushrooms in the UK writing paper based job applications to France and hoping that in another year or two they might get an offer and a visa.


It's actually astonishing quite how little they do get. They don't appear to understand, or want to. Considering how divided they are, and what a failure the rallying call of th election was, it's a good time for Remain to shunt them out of the way and put the brakes on Brexit.

Herzlos

But but but the will of the people.

Or more likely the fragile majority of the tories - if they upset the anti-EU backbenchers then they fall into a minority again.

What we really need is for May to announce that Brexit is a disaster and that she plans to drop the whole thing. People will be outraged, there will be badly spelled rants everywhere, and the sterling and economy will recover in short order.

It will end her career though. But so will following through on it. And she's loaded enough to retire anyway. I can't tell what makes more money for her husband though, as I think that's what'll dictate it.

Arklight

Herzlos wrote: »

But but but the will of the people.

Or more likely the fragile majority of the tories - if they upset the anti-EU backbenchers then they fall into a minority again.

What we really need is for May to announce that Brexit is a disaster and that she plans to drop the whole thing. People will be outraged, there will be badly spelled rants everywhere, and the sterling and economy will recover in short order.

It will end her career though. But so will following through on it. And she's loaded enough to retire anyway. I can't tell what makes more money for her husband though, as I think that's what'll dictate it.

Her career is already over. It's a sign of how weak the tories are that she is still in post.


The EU are going to eat her alive in the Brexit negotiations but she doesn't have enough authority left to abort Brexit,, and no one wants to take her place, so she's just going to have to suck it up and spend every day faceplanting or resign.


Personally I wish she would go because then that would do for Boris Johnson's career too. That really is a man that would make Trump look competent. Sadly the UK is already a big enough laughing stock.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

ilovehouses wrote: »

Funny how some pure speculation holds more value than other pure speculation.

You know what they say; "What's good for the goose ....."


Despite supposed doom & gloom, British retail is having the best time in years!

British shops enjoyed their biggest rise in June sales in six years, a survey showed on Friday, helped by warm weather and weak numbers in the same month last year.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-retail-idUKKBN19R382