Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

gfplux

Herzlos wrote: »

Indeed any vote will hamper hurt everyone (UK disproportionately though).

Will they vote for something that hurts them a tiny bit but keeps everything fair, or will they vote to give the UK a super extra special deal above what we've already got, that they aren't entitled to?

Each nation will vote for what is best for it. That doesn't necesarily mean they'll cave to the UK's requests, especially with the UK teams track record of U-Turning. We're already being regarded as unreliable and heading towards a cliff, how much is it worth it keep relying on that train wreck?

Again; poor deal will hurt everyone, and will be entirely of our doing. Will the threat of a poor deal be enough for the EU to give us our somewhat incompatible way? I can't see it, unless we're making some serious concessions like paying even more into the EU membership club.

I think the Leave blindspot hinges on a gross overestimation of how valuable UK trade is to the EU.

I think the bottom line here is that we need a good deal and we need to ensure we get it, rather than relying on the EU giving it to us, since they've got essentially no incentive to care about what happens to us.

Exporters and importers in the 27 have had 12 months to plan their new strategy to cope with the "potential" loss of access to Britain. Short term importers are enjoying the increased margin that the devalued pound gives them on prices from the UK.
British importers and exporters are doing the same.

By March 2019 all will have had 3 (three) YEARS to minimise any damage.
While in a perfect world nothing will change only the very naive will expect "no change" in March 2019

As I have said before ALL company in the 28 should/must do all they can to minimise damage to their business caused by Brexit. That damage would have been much greater in March 2016 than it will be in 2019 if planned properly.

Herzlos

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Did you read any of the post I made referencing EU budget contributions and export destination league tables for the net contributors?

Yup.

I fail to see how you're unable to see the harm no deal does to the EU if you had read it.

Is that because I agreed that the no deal harms everyone? I just think it harms us far more - we've got less markets we can redirect trade to.

The entire EU project is currently stacked like dominoes. Unless of course the Germans and possibly French want to prop up the entire bloc?

I've no idea how they'll do it. Most likely we'll have to pay in to keep some preferential trade.

We've put ourselves and the EU in an impossible position. For us we can placate the right and destroy our economy, or we can maintain our economy and upset the right. For the EU they can either take the economic hit or let the EU be torn apart and take the economic hit.

Every outcome from this is a huge step backwards from where we were. We'll all adjust and get over it eventually, but it just seems so utterly pointless.

mayonnaise

Public opinion on Brexit slowly shifting...steady does it...

Survation survey shows 54 per cent of Britons would now prefer to stay in Europe

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-remain-win-new-eu-exit-vote-survation-poll-a7820286.html#commentsDiv

A_Medium_Size_Jock

mayonnaise wrote: »

Public opinion on Brexit slowly shifting...steady does it...



http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-remain-win-new-eu-exit-vote-survation-poll-a7820286.html#commentsDiv

Uh-huh.
Is this the same Survation that - along with most others admittedly - was so accurate with their polling for the referendum itself, not?
https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/?mhq5j=e2

Matt_L

mayonnaise wrote: »

Public opinion on Brexit slowly shifting...steady does it...



http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-remain-win-new-eu-exit-vote-survation-poll-a7820286.html#commentsDiv

Instead of a poll i would sooner go by the 80+% of the population that actually voted in the very recent election for parties that made it clear that we are leaving. A huge and real endorsement imo...

Herzlos

Matt_L wrote: »

Instead of a poll i would sooner go by the 80+% of the population that actually voted in the very recent election for parties that made it clear that we are leaving. A huge and real endorsement imo...

Did they vote for those parties because they made it clear we are leaving, or did they vote for other reasons?

mayonnaise

Brexit: Deutsche Bank said to be switching from London to Frankfurt

Germany's largest lender would move most of the business reported in London to a so-called booking centre in Frankfurt under the plan

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-latest-news-deutsche-bank-london-frankfurt-uk-leave-eu-switch-a7826361.html

Frankfurt has emerged as a winner of the Brexit vote, with Standard Chartered, Nomura, Sumitomo Mitsui and Daiwa Securities picking the city as their EU hub in recent weeks. Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are weighing a similar move.

chucknorris

Matt_L wrote: »

Instead of a poll i would sooner go by the 80+% of the population that actually voted in the very recent election for parties that made it clear that we are leaving. A huge and real endorsement imo...

Herzlos wrote: »

Did they vote for those parties because they made it clear we are leaving, or did they vote for other reasons?

I voted remain in the referendum, and Tory in the GE because 'overall' I believe they have the best approach to managing the economy. Nothing to do with Brexit, it would be a cold day in hell the day that I vote for the Libdems, just because of one aspect of the economy.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Following Deutsche Bank agreeing a new 25-year lease in London in March, now the French Credit Agricole also agree a new lease in London:

French banking giant Credit Agricole gave the City a vote of confidence today by signing a six-year lease extension for its HQ in the Square Mile.

http://www.cityam.com/267944/boost-brexit-britain-french-banking-giant-credit-agricole

Neither sound like Brexit causes them such great concern.

Herzlos

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Following Deutsche Bank agreeing a new 25-year lease in London in March, now the French Credit Agricole also agree a new lease in London:

http://www.cityam.com/267944/boost-brexit-britain-french-banking-giant-credit-agricole

Neither sound like Brexit causes them such great concern.

Look up 2 posts

It's good that they've agreed new 25-year leases, but presumably they'll still need a presence here? It says they might add 6000 sqft which would be a good thing, but they don't seem so confident they want to expand just yet.