Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

Ballard

cogito wrote: »

Not to mention the fact that our shared history prior to 1945 mostly consisted of us trying to sort out the many wars that our they fought between themselves. More like our nearest neighbours my a**e.

If we're going back through history then most of the Commonwealth was taken by force so we're hardly blameless in that respect. It's a wonder that so many of the commonwealth countries are clamouring over themselves to sign trade deals with us.

I feel more affinity towards the rest of Europe than I do to Americans who barely share any of our characteristics. There will naturally be some things where we're closer to Americans than Europeans but the areas where we differ will vastly outnumber them. Since Trump's election I see us as having drifted further apart.

Australia & NZ aren't exactly close or a massive market and in the case of NZ they don't have the close ties to the UK that one might assume. In my experience they're more closely allied to their Maori ancestry and that of their closest neighbours.

India could be a good market for us but if you think that the EU has a lot of red tape then think again. I've been to the country several times and the bureaucracy, as a tourist, is breathtaking. Perhaps it's much less so for business but I would be astonished if this is the case.

cogito

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Yes...

This is a common perception held by the naive..

I've actually lived and worked in America, and I can assure you most Americans don't have the foggiest idea where the UK is on a map, let alone give a flying fig for the future of our nation.




Which sounds lovely and all, but Australia and New Zealand are essentially irrelevant on the World stage, having a combined population about the size of Ghana or Madagascar and holding about as much importance.



Drivel.

Britain is European - we are all of the same cultural integrity and hold the same values - we are far closer and more like our nearest neighbours and biggest trading partners than we are to a handful of former colonial outposts on the other side of the world... who share virtually none of our culture and even less of our history.

Not to mention it is quite frankly economically illiterate to even dream of trade with these distant nations making up for more than a fraction of what we'll lose by leaving the EU and it's enormously important single market, which is of course right on our doorstep and dwarfs the opportunity of any other market by comparison.

Madagascar gdp per capita $511
Ghana gdp per capita $1387
New Zealand gdp per capita $37600
Australia gdp per capita $56700

2015 figures. Yeah, Ghana and Madagascar are real big hitters.

Thrugelmir

cogito wrote: »

Australia gdp per capita $56700

The average Australian isn't a miner.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Ballard wrote: »

If we're going back through history then most of the Commonwealth was taken by force so we're hardly blameless in that respect. It's a wonder that so many of the commonwealth countries are clamouring over themselves to sign trade deals with us.
A bit much of a generalisation, that - besides which ( & not excusing past misdeeds BTW) not one single major power did any different then, did they?
"Taken by force" quite often from sparsely-populated lands where that small native population (unwittingly perhaps) welcomed trade? Australia with aboriginals; NZ with Maoris; the Americas with native indians; Africa ...........

I feel more affinity towards the rest of Europe than I do to Americans who barely share any of our characteristics. There will naturally be some things where we're closer to Americans than Europeans but the areas where we differ will vastly outnumber them. Since Trump's election I see us as having drifted further apart.
Methinks you are in a small minority there.
Since American ancestry is in larger part British than any other, the suggestion that there may be more similarities with other Europeans is unfounded.
Burns Night just for one example is widely-celebrated not only in Scotland but globally, with large events in the USA, Canada, Oz & NZ - all with their own bagpipe players too.
Other examples are available.

Australia & NZ aren't exactly close or a massive market and in the case of NZ they don't have the close ties to the UK that one might assume. In my experience they're more closely allied to their Maori ancestry and that of their closest neighbours.
I would not say "allied to"; respectful of certainly and I have family in NZ as personal reference. Again your suggestion that there aren't such close ties to the UK is not my experience from family reciprocating visits over many years.
No one has suggested these are "massive markets" either - but there is nonetheless opportunity to increase trade between us.
After all, the EU themselves are engaged in free trade talks with Australia so they must see opportunity.

India could be a good market for us but if you think that the EU has a lot of red tape then think again. I've been to the country several times and the bureaucracy, as a tourist, is breathtaking. Perhaps it's much less so for business but I would be astonished if this is the case.
That has indeed always been the case in recent times and indeed deals will not necessarily be easy or fast. But you are ignoring Modi's drive for reform; he has already begun implementing changes in his stated quest to remove much of India's bureaucracy.

Responses highlighted above in red.

Please note that (as before) I am not suggesting an immediate boom in global trade post-Brexit or that separation from the EU will be trouble-free.
I am however (as so often in this and other threads) suggesting that the huge amount of negativity surrounding the UK leaving the EU as so widely portrayed is neither as correct nor as straightforward as some believe; there are in fact also opportunities that may prove to be extremely beneficial to the UK.

Tromking

Sir Vince Cable this morning floating the unfortunate truth re. Brexit, that maybe the two main parties are too split and the parliamentary arithmetic too problematic for Brexit to happen.
What price another referendum if the politicians bottle it?

Sapphire

Tromking wrote: »

Sir Vince Cable this morning floating the unfortunate truth re. Brexit, that maybe the two main parties are too split and the parliamentary arithmetic too problematic for Brexit to happen.
What price another referendum if the politicians bottle it?

That's the thing: 'the parties', i.e. the establishment, electing to pursue their own vested party interests, or individuals pursuing their personal financial interests, rather than our representatives fighting to keep our nation sovereign. Shows what lousy politicians we have.

I hear that Cable likened Mrs May to Hitler, or was it Stalin? Nice. Obviously has no idea of the 'sterling achievements' of either in world history. I find it quite shocking that an individual who is old enough and, supposedly intelligent, and who must have known what was going on in countries that had to endure Stalinism (or Hitlerism) should resort to such language. Still, I suppose he might be like those trendy leftie apologists for Stalin I had to endure long discussions with (in Britain), who were constantly making excuses for Stalinist excesses while conveniently ignoring the fact that under communist regimes in Europe, millions were being killed and enduring hardship that could only be imagined in this country.

In a way, it would be quite good for this country to experience a dose of communism – though unfortunately much that has been gained over hundreds of years of our history, often with great difficulty, would be disposed of, along with the inevitable erasure of history (this has already started). Once lost, it would be nigh impossible to regain it.

(Text removed by MSE Forum Team)

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Tromking wrote: »

Sir Vince Cable this morning floating the unfortunate truth re. Brexit, that maybe the two main parties are too split and the parliamentary arithmetic too problematic for Brexit to happen.
What price another referendum if the politicians bottle it?

Gotta say that I find myself largely in agreement with Sapphire's post above.

The possibility of Brexit not happening is slim and increasingly slim as time progresses, with for example the repeal bill due to presented to parliament this week.
Okay, so the real discussions surrounding this may not take place until autumn but that is not so far away.
Once through (and it IS more likely to progress through parliament than not) that will hopefully put an end to these largely-unsubstantiated fantasies.

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/what-are-prospects-repeal-bill

TrickyTree83

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Gotta say that I find myself largely in agreement with Sapphire's post above.

The possibility of Brexit not happening is slim and increasingly slim as time progresses, with for example the repeal bill due to presented to parliament this week.
Okay, so the real discussions surrounding this may not take place until autumn but that is not so far away.
Once through (and it IS more likely to progress through parliament than not) that will hopefully put an end to these largely-unsubstantiated fantasies.

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/what-are-prospects-repeal-bill

Of course Brexit will happen. Look at the number of times they have come up with utter crap since June 2016 to try to tell us all it's not happening. They're idiots. Sorry, but they were wrong then and they're wrong now. Why do people listen to those who are consistently incorrect anymore? Just cast their opinions aside where they belong, if your IFA was as wrong as often as Lib Dems, Labour and their media coterie you'd have changed IFA's long ago.

They're either competent or they're not. I'm not saying they have to be right 100% of the time either, but at least get it right the majority of the time.

cogito

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The average Australian isn't a miner.

Mining only accounts for 7% of GDP so technically I suppose you are correct.

gfplux

I still hope that Brexit will not happen.
However looking to the future post Brexit happening does anyone have any idea of the products that we will sell to Britains major new trade partner the USA.
For a free trade deal to bring wealth and prosperity to modern Britain is for Britain to export MORE than it imports.
So once in place what are the products that this free trade deal with the USA that Britain will sell substantially more of and what products that are presently not exported (due to a crippling duty level) will be exported in substantial numbers to the USA.
What are the likely products Britain would import and would that have any effect on British factory's?
Secondly if the company's making these products are public have the shares reacted to this opportunity or can investors still get in on the growth.
These questions would equally apply to India, New Zealand, Australia and any other countries (does anyone have a list of the big ones) Britain signs free trade deals with.
Now Britain is only 20 months from leaving these practical questions need to be asked and answered.