Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

Thrugelmir

gfplux wrote: »

I still hope that Brexit will not happen.

There's no absolutely no sign that the EU has any desire to compromise. Time to get on with the job in hand.

Now Britain is only 20 months from leaving these practical questions need to be asked and answered.

Why the continual one sided view point.

Herzlos

Thrugelmir wrote: »

There's no absolutely no sign that the EU has any desire to compromise. Time to get on with the job in hand.

Neither will the UK.

Why the continual one sided view point.

What's wrong with asking for details, or plans, or any information about what's next?

TrickyTree83

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Why the continual one sided view point.

Can't even attempt a balanced approach. A soiled remainer if you like.

TrickyTree83

Herzlos wrote: »

Neither will the UK.



What's wrong with asking for details, or plans, or any information about what's next?

Read it again. Properly this time. See if you can pinpoint the bias in the post.

Hint: it's the part about the conditions the poster places on the new trade deals. They're not even conditions met by the UK inside the EU. Poster just looks like they are spoiling for an argument rather than actual data or facts. I'll oblige, I've had enough of reading remainer and/or left wing bilge lately.

Herzlos

Sapphire wrote: »

I feel much more affinity with them than with people from continental European countries. The same goes for Australians and New Zealanders, who I've also had quite a lot to do with. I feel we are roughly on the same 'emotional wavelength', probably through shared origins/histories.

Coming from a similar background I have to disagree - Superficially the US is very similar to the UK (because the UK seems to ape the US where it can), but on the whole I find it a pretty different culture and attitude. I'd echo the point about general US awareness of the UK - the people you work with know about it because they work with Brits, but the majority I'd met whilst I lived there didn't have much beyond a vague idea.

New Zealand / Australia are a lot closer to us though.

Culturally, I think we're fairly close to a lot of the EU, particularly our neighbours. It's not as obvious because of the language thing though, as superficially it's very different.

Onto trade, I don't think anyone believes anything Trump says - he's said pretty much word for word statements about Germany and Poland (despite being seemingly unaware that the US can't make deals with individual EU countries). Then there's Trumps claims about bringing stuff on-board and to hurt importers, and the trade guy (can't remember his name) stating that Brexit is a great opportunity to steal trade from the UK.

On top of that, I can't think what we've got that the US wants, our cars aren't that popular. Whisky is though, as is our health service, but I can't think what else. So we seem to be putting all our money on getting a good trade deal with a country that's made it clear they want a one way relationship headed by a guy who's happy to screw everyone over.

That's without even getting into the logistics. Just-In-Time business just doesn't work with the US unless you're paying air freight and some sort of expediated customs. I can get a parcel to/from Spain by the next day, but it's easily 4/5 days to the US. That's a lot of downtime.

I'd be all for something that makes things like UK/US travel and shipping easier, but I honestly can't see it being close to replacing what we'll potentially lose from the EU.

Herzlos

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Read it again. Properly this time. See if you can pinpoint the bias in the post.

The first line where he states it clearly.

Does that invalidate the question though? It seems like a valid point. *what* trade are we hoping to do with the US/India/etc? What are we expecting to make more money selling, or save money importing? What industries will FTA's benefit?

Some Americans/Indians are crazy for UK based stuff, but it's a pretty small minority.

So what's the value add?

Thrugelmir

Herzlos wrote: »

Neither will the UK.

If you recall David Cameron asked for change. There's was no giving an inch. Hence the bloody mindedness we are encountering now. As the same individuals are still in the most powerful positions within the EU. Their credibility is at stake. That's politicians for you. Arrogant to the end.

vivatifosi

gfplux wrote: »

I still hope that Brexit will not happen.
However looking to the future post Brexit happening does anyone have any idea of the products that we will sell to Britains major new trade partner the USA.
For a free trade deal to bring wealth and prosperity to modern Britain is for Britain to export MORE than it imports.
So once in place what are the products that this free trade deal with the USA that Britain will sell substantially more of and what products that are presently not exported (due to a crippling duty level) will be exported in substantial numbers to the USA.
What are the likely products Britain would import and would that have any effect on British factory's?
Secondly if the company's making these products are public have the shares reacted to this opportunity or can investors still get in on the growth.
These questions would equally apply to India, New Zealand, Australia and any other countries (does anyone have a list of the big ones) Britain signs free trade deals with.
Now Britain is only 20 months from leaving these practical questions need to be asked and answered.

Sorry, on tablet, so not easy to split into sections.

I think one aspect of this is that if tariffs are put in place and therefore imports become more expensive, then people may buy more British goods. Similarly a low £ makes it easier to sell abroad.

The EU would be the second largest economy in the world by GDP if it was a country. The top 20 countries by GDP is similar but not identical to the G20:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/G20
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

The problem is that the list has a very long tail. There are approx 200 nations in the world, which has a total GDP of $75,278bn.

However the US accounts for $18,569bn of this, the EU $16,408 and China $11218, so that's a very big chunk of the world's economy in two countries and the largest trading bloc.

In terms of the other countries, only Japan, Germany, the UK, France,India, Italy, Brazil, Canada, South Korea, Russia, Australia, Spain and Mexico have a GDP over $1000bn.

However the UK is the 5th largest economy in the world (possibly 6th as it tends to run neck and neck with France). So while this is a risky strategy for the UK, smaller countries like Luxembourg (ranked 76th), Greece (ranked 50th), Estonia (105) and Malta (132) would find this impossible.

Hopefully this puts the UK and its unique position into perspective. It wasn't as heavily involved in the war so the Franco-german access is less important. Plus it has the bulk to leave, and the history of the Commonwealth (approx $10.5tn GDP by way of comparison). I didnt vote for Brexit but I hope it pulls it off. Of all the countries in Europe it has one of the best opportunities to do so.

Tromking

Thrugelmir wrote: »

There's no absolutely no sign that the EU has any desire to compromise.

A situation that makes any vote on 'the deal' in parliament problematic in my view.
Already MP's are using lines like "we didn't vote to make ourselves poorer" as a justification to lobby for a less 'clean' break from the EU.
Leaving the EU is not a done deal.

always_sunny

Tromking wrote: »

Leaving the EU is not a done deal.

It is a done deal, Art 50 has been triggered and to reverse it 27 member states must agree.
The UK may get a deal that feels like it's still in the EU but it is not.

To reverse Art 50, the UK can expect that other EU countries will veto the current arrangements (non-Schengen, non Euro, etc).