Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

Hate to say I told you so, but yet another European Govt states a mutually beneficial no-harm trade deal for UK must be done.

I don't know why you keep bringing this up, since no-one in the last year has disagreed with you. A deal needs to be done or everyone suffers. Everyone (except the vehemently anti-EU or anti-foreigner) wants a good deal.

The thing we don't know anything about is *how* we're going to get a good deal.

Conrad

Herzlos wrote: »

I don't know why you keep bringing this up, since no-one in the last year has disagreed with you. A deal needs to be done or everyone suffers. Everyone (except the vehemently anti-EU or anti-foreigner) wants a good deal.

The thing we don't know anything about is *how* we're going to get a good deal.

So you and kindred souls now agree there's every reason a mutually beneficial 'non hampering' trade deal will be done?



Blimey, I'll this up a victory.


Not long back you were saying;

Herzlos wrote: »

The issue is that whilst a bad trade deal with the EU will hurt the EU, it'll absolutely destroy us. So Brexit is potentially bad enough to plunge the entire EU into a recession, but of course, we will have burnt any good will, so they won't be helping us back out afterwards.

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=71513078



Originally Posted by Herzlos
I'm all for change, where it makes sense. I don't believe Brexit makes sense.
https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/71508236#Comment_71508236

Conrad

Herzlos wrote: »

I don't see any real forward thinking either. We've still got pretty much nothing when it comes to what an independent UK will be like.

Your statement has no basis in reality and is merely your own framing of Brexit in a negative manner.


The Mansion House speech is but one source outlining our path.


Of course we have to tread carefully until German GE out the way as we must play along and not be too bullish in order to let Merkel frame herself as a strong leader keeping Britain in it's place. We are in effect helping Merkel in her election, and hope this helps build good will

kabayiri

Herzlos wrote: »

I'm pretty confident that if we decided to repeal A50, the EU27 would be happy for us to do so if we re-imbursed them for all the time/money of theirs we wasted dealing with Brexit. That'd hurt pretty badly though, as it must be in the 10's of billions already.
..

Where do you get tens of billions from?

I'd like a breakdown please, else I will argue it is little more than admin costs at this stage.

The current EU budget phase has 1/3 TRILLION Euros allocated. I'm sure they could find some of the money in this pot for some cohesion with their mate the UK.

Arklight

Brexit isn't going to happen. Certainly not the kind that the Little Englanders on this thread want.


Looking forward to the Brexiteer "Day of Rage"when it sinks in.


Presumably removing all the charging points for mobility scooters in Westminster and stepless access at Victoria will put an end to that...

Arklight

Herzlos wrote: »

Coming from a similar background I have to disagree - Superficially the US is very similar to the UK (because the UK seems to ape the US where it can), but on the whole I find it a pretty different culture and attitude. I'd echo the point about general US awareness of the UK - the people you work with know about it because they work with Brits, but the majority I'd met whilst I lived there didn't have much beyond a vague idea.

New Zealand / Australia are a lot closer to us though.

Culturally, I think we're fairly close to a lot of the EU, particularly our neighbours. It's not as obvious because of the language thing though, as superficially it's very different.

Onto trade, I don't think anyone believes anything Trump says - he's said pretty much word for word statements about Germany and Poland (despite being seemingly unaware that the US can't make deals with individual EU countries). Then there's Trumps claims about bringing stuff on-board and to hurt importers, and the trade guy (can't remember his name) stating that Brexit is a great opportunity to steal trade from the UK.

On top of that, I can't think what we've got that the US wants, our cars aren't that popular. Whisky is though, as is our health service, but I can't think what else. So we seem to be putting all our money on getting a good trade deal with a country that's made it clear they want a one way relationship headed by a guy who's happy to screw everyone over.

That's without even getting into the logistics. Just-In-Time business just doesn't work with the US unless you're paying air freight and some sort of expediated customs. I can get a parcel to/from Spain by the next day, but it's easily 4/5 days to the US. That's a lot of downtime.

I'd be all for something that makes things like UK/US travel and shipping easier, but I honestly can't see it being close to replacing what we'll potentially lose from the EU.

Irrespective of how affable Americans are or what Brexiteer A's memories are of the GI's handing out chewing gum and stockings during the war, the American government views trade as a zero sum game and that won't change with regards to us.


The absurdity of removing ourselves from one giant market which we have a large say in the running of, to try and attach to a smaller giant market we have no say in whatsoever because they speak English there, just sums up the stupid, foot shooting ignorance of the Brexit camp.


I say camp, I doubt many of the Brexit voters could clamber out of their torpor to pitch one unless there was a trail of Pringles leading to it and it was just round the corner like their Brexit polling station.

gfplux

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

We get that, even that you felt sufficiently strong anti-British feelings to leave the UK (prior to the referendum BTW for those that may not have known) and vow never to return so those of us realising this see your bias from that POV.

But firstly, just because you and indeed others have this "feeling" that Brexit is wrong does not necessarily make it so. You chose the EU and you live there. The voting majority here in the UK voted to leave the EU; such is democracy.
And secondly you ask for "flesh on the bones" whilst seeming to ignore all that has been written in this thread and elsewhere about trade deal talks and other forecasts.
Which may be where your problem lies; until the UK has actually left the Eu that is all we will get, isn't it?
Forecasts.
You had better get used to that, since (barring as-yet unforeseen events) there is at least another 18 months or so of this yet. Until any deal is finally signed and agreed-upon by all parties there will be no certainty.


Instead of repeatedly asking what cannot yet be answered fully by anyone, why not do your own research?
I for one will not be doing it for you.

Dodging the question? Surely all these new free trade deals YOU and other Brexiters have talked about is just speculation. Am I surprised well no because when it really matters no one is prepared to stand up and put flesh on the bones of these wonderful trade deals.
Frankly pig and a poke comes to mind.

gfplux

Reasons For Britain to leave the EU

1) Control the Borders. Now it has been repeated often enough everyone knows that it was the British Government who did not use EU law to deport EU nationals after three months.

2) Not have bad law made for Britain by the EU. Please, please name just two.

3) Outside the EU Britain will maintain its trade with the EU AND grow trade to Britains advantage by signing new free trade deals with large Nations.

Now 13 months on do things look good. Well not if even committed Brexiters avoid talking about specific advantages of new free trade deals.

The wheels may have come off Brexit but blind and committed Brexiters will continue to push until Britain tips over the cliff.

All I asked was a simple question about the advantages to Britain by all the new free trade deals and it seems to have stopped the Brexiters in their tracks. Lots of bluster but no speculated possibilities, strange.

kabayiri

gfplux wrote: »

Reasons For Britain to leave the EU

Control the Borders. Now it has been repeated often enough everyone knows that it was the British Government who did not use EU law to deport EU nationals after three months.
...

It's pretty clear how the UK government underestimated the level of antipathy amongst the public towards migration.

This is as much about a division between the electorate and the political class.

It's the same if you consider that parliament has more Remainer MPs.

What do you have if you don't have MPs who understand the top concerns of their voters?

There is an exception of course. The new Manchester mayor is only too keen to listen to those of a certain religious persuasion. They probably remind him daily how they vote like the Borg would vote.

gfplux

Oh dear,
Australia just slapped Brexit in the mouth.

"Australia's historical relationship with the UK is now one of "yesteryear," the country's trade minister told the European Parliament today, as he stressed that doing a free trade deal with the EU was now a greater priority for Australia than doing one with post-Brexit UK.
"I see the European Union FTA [free trade agreement] as certainly commencing formal negotiations well and truly prior to anything that might happen with the UK," Steve Ciobo told MEPs this morning."

http://www.politics.co.uk/news/2016/09/08/australian-trade-minister-says-special-relationship-with-uk?utm_content=bufferd0ea4&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer