Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

Thrugelmir

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

As an aside, oil prices are lower again (as has been mentioned already) by $10/barrel compared to even a month ago.

Running fracking rigs are up 20% so far this year in the US. OPEC has lost control over supply. As they cut production. More US rigs simply restart.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

ilovehouses wrote: »

Japan isn't really open to low skilled migrant labour and the Japanese don't aspire to be farm workers. You can't see the relevance?

That is simply not true.
Even for skilled workers, Japan has long welcomed migrant labour; I can assure you of this from personal experience.

Now certainly it is true that perhaps the Japanese do not import labour on the scale that the UK does, but Japan certainly does import labour for quite a variety of what they consider to be low-skilled work.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/10/business/japan-immigrants-workers-trump.html?mcubz=0

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/11/03/national/japan-quietly-accepting-foreign-workers-just-dont-call-immigration/

http://uk.businessinsider.com/japan-wants-more-foreign-workers-2016-4?r=US&IR=T

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Also this week, Ireland again warns of the impact to its economy of a so-called "hard Brexit":

• Ireland's economic output to be reduced, with export companies worst-hit
• Loss of 49,000 jobs and €200m a year is 'conservative estimate'
• Brexit already impacting businesses in the export sector

http://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/how-a-hard-brexit-could-cost-ireland-49000-jobs-and-200m-a-year-35853844.html


So in this page alone that is Denmark and Ireland both discussing the negative effect upon their economies of Brexit.
How about Germany?
Well, Deloitte this week warn:

While producers from the UK and from outside the EU would benefit, the revenue of the EU without Germany would fall by €8.3bn and of German producers by €6.7bn.

http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/deloitte-study-finds-german-car-industry-severely-hit-no-deal-brexit/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-22/post-brexit-u-k-car-sales-slump-seen-risking-18-000-german-jobs



Spain then?
Well a few months ago now, a government report suggests an impact to the Spanish economy of one billion Euros in exports alone in the event of a "hard Brexit".

It says Brexit will see Spain’s GDP fall by between €2bn and €4bn, force the country to increase its EU budget contributions by €888m, and could result in some regions losing their European funding.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/10/hard-brexit-could-cost-spain-1bn-leaked-report-says

https://translate.google.co.uk/translate?hl=en&sl=es&u=http://elpais.com/elpais/2017/03/10/inenglish/1489134826_157952.html&prev=search

There is more but rather than clog up a thread I will leave it there.
But if anyone wonders why some are ambivalent towards pro-EU chest-beating and/or premonitions of doom and gloom, perhaps an understanding of potential consequences for millions within the EU27 such as the above examples will provide illumination.
Despite what some may believe, such consequences will not be taken lightly by those at risk within the EU.

Glover1862

mayonnaise wrote: »

Asking probing questions on the Brexit negotiations is now unpatriotic.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/andrea-leadsom-newsnight-emily-maitlis_uk_594d60c5e4b0da2c731b6bd7

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

Woman is a moron like most of the Brexit negotiating team (being very generous to call them that). only decent thing TM did as stop her, how could she have even been considered?

always_sunny

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

That is simply not true.
Even for skilled workers, Japan has long welcomed migrant labour; I can assure you of this from personal experience.

Now certainly it is true that perhaps the Japanese do not import labour on the scale that the UK does, but Japan certainly does import labour for quite a variety of what they consider to be low-skilled work.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/10/business/japan-immigrants-workers-trump.html?mcubz=0

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/11/03/national/japan-quietly-accepting-foreign-workers-just-dont-call-immigration/

http://uk.businessinsider.com/japan-wants-more-foreign-workers-2016-4?r=US&IR=T

Can you tell us (since you can assure us from personal experience) what's the percent of immigrants in Japan? And since you're so familiar with the country also something about locals working in the agricultural sector?

A_Medium_Size_Jock

always_sunny wrote: »

Can you tell us (since you can assure us from personal experience) what's the percent of immigrants in Japan? And since you're so familiar with the country also something about locals working in the agricultural sector?

No, I will not allow you to distract and obfuscate.
It was said "Japan isn't really open to low skilled migrant labour" and I proved that wrong.

P.S. - I have lived in Japan domo arigato - have you?

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Meanwhile, back on-topic:

Thanks To Brexit, We Can Celebrate A Year Of Economic Success

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/richard-tice/brexit-anniversary_b_17279744.html?utm_hp_ref=uk

In truth, the list of economic and corporate good news is so long, that it becomes something we took for granted, almost complacent.

Yet a desperate band of powerful Remoaners around Westminster and the broadcast media have ignored these successes. They relish the errors of the general election campaign that has given them a whiff of hope that they can wreak their revenge on the will of the people. They ignore the fact that over 80% of the electorate voted for party manifestos that confirmed we are leaving the EU, including the single market and the customs union as per the current rules.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

ilovehouses wrote: »

You seem keen to suggest there are a number of factors which affect prices (which nobody disputes) but I've not seen you make a single counter argument to my prediction that Brexit is/ will be inflationary for food prices.

This after you say "Let's stay on-topic and not make it personal."?
Just because you ignore or refuse to accept a reply does not make the reply less valid.

So again and as simply as possible; there is no evidence that food prices will increase as a direct result of Brexit.

ilovehouses wrote: »

It doesn't help the debate when the 'winning point' is proving Japan isn't completely closed to low skilled migrant labour. It takes us not a step closer to working out what happens to the UK food and drink sector post Brexit.

Japan is relevant to the discussion because it's a nation with limited and tightly controlled immigration especially as regards to low skilled people. Also, as per the UK, locals have little desire to work in agriculture.

Here's an abstract from a study.

http://www.tplondon.com/journal/index.php/ml/article/view/3



Looks complicated, expensive and it appears migrants aren't stealing jobs from the Japanese - the Japanese don't want to do them.

My proof is from within the past year, not over four years old like your "abstract from a study".
I also said: "Now certainly it is true that perhaps the Japanese do not import labour on the scale that the UK does".


Now continue your crusade if you wish but it will not include me.
Or are you really just attempting to provoke one poster in these forums?

A_Medium_Size_Jock

I read yesterday that the French appear determined to prevent another Calais Jungle:

We can't set up another reception centre in Calais because it would reproduce what happened before; you go from a few hundred to a few thousand migrants," Interior Minister Gerard Collomb told reporters on a visit to Calais.
"It's an issue that must be dealt with but not only in Calais."

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-europe-migrants-calais-idUKKBN19E1L0?il=0

A_Medium_Size_Jock

From The Independent a few hours ago:
"The pessimists were wrong about Brexit, it hasn’t damaged the economy – yet".

From an economic perspective, we have learnt two things in the past year: one is that the sky did not fall in; the other is that the disruption to the economy is potentially damaging, and politicians on both sides can increase that damage if they are stupid.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-one-year-ago-economics-inflation-damage-to-economy-jobs-business-a7806471.html