Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Moby wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/23/eu-leaders-uk-plan-citizens-rights-vague-inadequate We are in such a mess!

You might be.
"We" are most certainly not.


The UK said it wanted to clarify citizen's rights even before Article 50 was put forward; it was the EU that refused.
Little wonder then that Junkers and his cronies want more; they have an innate desire to be seen as having ultimate control.
They don't.

I think Merkel recognizes this, hence her saying of the plan that it was a "good start".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-40377643

always_sunny

Conrad wrote: »

So give me this magic timeline when Brits stopped working on farms and Poles suddenly started.

It's just the laziest of arguments. The actual fact of the matter is that farmers found a CHEAPER labour source when Blair opened the flood gates.

I know plenty of farmers through work and most have considerable property wealth, now routinely hiving off barns and land for development, or erecting small industrial units by the dozen to let out. The guy that first foresaw the Banking crash is currently recommending investors there and here buy farms over any other investment.

You look too much at the past rather than just go with the time. So what if Brits stopped working on farms and instead Poles from Blair 'flood gates' are doing it?
Do farm products taste different? Can you taste the 'Pole' on your courgettes?

Why are British workers unable to work for the same rate? Do they pick fruit and veggies differently? Your argument doesn't many any sense at all.

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

But you lot tell us 'Brits wont do those kind of jobs'. I don't believe it, it's one of those lefty urban myths that took hold that classic bovine QT audience members auto applaud without any reflection as to whether the statement is born of fact or not.

Do these same students who are doing seasonal farm work to pay for their gap year, come home and do seasonal work on farms in the UK?

I'll bet they don't. Just like I worked in a bar and callcentre to pay my way through uni and wouldn't touch them as a graduate.

So you're comparing apples and oranges.

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

Yes I meant to mention this to. The worry-fiends think foreign farming labour will collapse but of course as we've always said, we can quite easily set up a sensible managed immigration system that can cater towards the reasonable needs of business, but that should not seek to undermine UK wages

There's 2 issues: social norms and wages.

1. Farming has been squeezed rotten by supermarkets for years - they are competing with sub-continental production and run on very thin margins. All of the farmers I know are asset rich and cash poor - probably sitting on £1m+ of land, but live frugally. This means that wages are low and an increase of wages potentially means they are no longer competitive and are better selling up to developers.

2. Over the years manual labour seems to have become frowned upon. People have aspirations above that and for many it's viewed as a temporary thing until they get a career (or become a celebrity).
This culture doesn't seem to be shared by East Europeans for whatever reason, and they are happy to do the crappy jobs that Brits look down on.

We'd need to sort both of those before farmers can get all the local labour they need.

Conrad

ilovehouses wrote: »

I'm more interested in how the consumer will react to increased costs.

People say they want fairness and fair wages for all. Giving Farmers an excuse to perpetuate slave wages is not my idea of a civilised nation.


Stop the massive cheap labour flow and wages will naturally rise. Consumers may have to pay a little more, they'll cope and anyway Dr Michael Moselys health documentaries inform that middle classes eat far more fruit n veg than others and so the costs will be largely borne my middle classes.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

ilovehouses wrote: »

"The past is a foreign country: they do things differently there"

As you aren't for one moment suggesting we go back to those days (and don't expect us to) I don't see the point you're trying to make.

Nice to reminisce though.

I guess sometimes a simple explanation just is not enough.

First, try re-reading.
The first line of your quoted link especially:

No one is suggesting these will become permanent pickers; the next year's crop will be picked by a new crop of travelling students and so it is self-perpetuating.

Why did you not acknowledge that I wonder?

The rest is education for the ill-informed as to how the process works, and not just here in the UK.
Substitute the potato-pickers spoken of there with migrant workers from wherever and you might begin to understand although I will not explain step-by-step for every eventuality merely to appease those determined in their negativity.

Then read (as I posted earlier) post 366 in conjunction:

Try reading post #339 in this thread again.
If the industry itself believes we can, why should we instead believe a faceless forum poster?

Is it clear enough now?
Simply, the point is that despite hype and negativity in some quarters the industry itself says there is a solution for UK farming that works.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

ilovehouses wrote: »

Hmmm. I took Merkel's comment to mean she wants more too.

Everybody everywhere always wants more.
But what matters is whether or not they actually get more.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

For those wringing their hands about UK inflation and slowing wage growth, here is the latest on Germany:

Germans' purchasing power increased in the first quarter at its weakest rate in more than three years as inflation accelerated in Europe's largest economy, data from the Federal Statistics Office showed on Friday.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-germany-economy-idUKKBN19E0K9

Comparatively it would logically follow that Brexit is having little real detrimental effect so far in the UK then.
Even less-so if you consider this:

Roaring euro zone business growth tailed off unexpectedly toward the end of the first half of 2017 following a sudden slowing in the pace of expansion by services firms, a survey showed on Friday.

A Reuters poll had predicted no change to the index, seen as a good guide to growth, and none of the economists polled had predicted such a big fall.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-eurozone-economy-pmi-idUKKBN19E0S2

Moby

Guardian:- 'Once again, this morning, millions of families wake up among us not knowing whether they will be allowed to remain in the country where they have chosen to make their lives. There has to be a very strong reason of national interest even to contemplate causing such upset. There isn’t. It seems very unlikely Spain would kick out our expats on the Costa del Sol, or that France would depopulate the Dordogne. But even if they did, no one really believes that Britain would deport the three million European citizens who live and work here. Why not? Because it would be a massive act of self-harm. As Mrs May said in February: “EU citizens living in the UK make a vital contribution to our economy and society and without them we would be poorer and our public services weaker.” Threatening to make yourself poorer and your NHS weaker isn’t very credible. Nor does anyone believe that, even if she wanted to, Mrs May has the numbers to carry out her threat. She has barely persuaded her Conservative colleagues to back her plan. Last June, in the days immediately after the referendum, David Cameron wanted to reassure EU citizens they would be allowed to stay. All his Cabinet agreed with that unilateral offer, except his Home Secretary, Mrs May, who insisted on blocking it. A vote in the Commons earlier this year was only carried with a nod and a wink to Tory MPs behind the scenes that she didn’t really mean it. Since then, the Government has lost its majority and it seems likely that an opposition motion to grant EU citizens the right to remain unilaterally could be carried.'

A_Medium_Size_Jock

“Theresa May made clear to us today that EU citizens that have been in Britain for five years will retain their full rights. That is a good start,” Merkel told reporters.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/22/theresa-may-makes-fair-and-serious-offer-on-rights-of-eu-citizens-in-uk

If the Graudian changes it's mind again perhaps it could consider that the only reason the above will not happen is if the EU refuse it.