Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

A_Medium_Size_Jock

ilovehouses wrote: »

It's very clear - thank you.

You're suggesting any shortage of migrant workers be met by employing migrant workers but increasing the administrative burden.

Can you see any solutions to the potential problems that the food industry face that don't require the consumer to pay more?



Of course. I was more making the point that Merkel saying 'good start' wasn't indicative of her having a different understanding to Juncker.

Where have I suggested increasing the administrative burden - and is there any reason that the cost of this supposed "burden" could not be borne by those wishing to work here?

UK food is already widely and globally acknowledged to be cheap.
I won't "hold your hand" to prove that statement; there is plenty proof if you want to look.
It may cost more, but also it may not. As you say; "potential problems".
For example, UK-sourced prices may increase whilst imports may decrease; since we import far more than we produce, which would potentially have the greater impact?

A_Medium_Size_Jock

ilovehouses wrote: »

Any scheme which allocates temporary work permits has a cost associated with it. Yes, you could charge the migrant but ultimately that just comes out in the wash and the consumer pays. Don't forget where we started..

- the Eurozone is seeing unemployment fall; she's offering an alternative other than having to move to the UK for work.
- the workers that are here have seen the value of the money they send home fall by 20% (at least)

..and now you want to charge them a fee for the privilege?

You keep missing the point about the price of food. I don't care to prove food is cheap and abundant; I'm interested in what will happen when the price of that food increases.



In that scenario UK farmers are in trouble and Spanish farmers will be rejoicing.

If this is a brexit thread shouldn't we be talking about Brexit related effects. i.e. It's likely that Brexit will restrict labour supply to the UK food and drink sector which will be inflationary.

If at the same time import prices fall that would give consumers the chance to mitigate increases in locally produced goods but this would be coincidental.

The one missing the point entirely is yourself.

Because all of this is "if"; not "when" as you incorrectly state above ("When the price of that food increase").
It hasn't happened yet and - unless you have firm knowledge that nobody else has - you cannot say with any degree of certainty what will happen.
Even what you consider as likely to happen may not actually happen and for a huge number of reasons, only some of which have been discussed here.

For example, once out of the EU the UK can source food from where it wants - not just Spain and certainly not only from EU or EU-approved sources.
So the thread is indeed Brexit-related; it is you that seems to insist upon diversification and others that keep having to correct your often-mistaken statements, as with the possible effect on food prices.

"It's likely that Brexit will restrict labour supply to the UK food and drink sector which will be inflationary."
Only in the eyes of some, see what I say above: "It hasn't happened yet and - unless you have firm knowledge that nobody else has - you cannot say with any degree of certainty what will happen."

Of course, if you are determined to see nothing but negativity that is your prerogative.
I am able to see that there will undoubtedly be some negative impacts as a result of Brexit.
However I for one am also capable of balancing the possibility of such negative impacts with possible benefits, many of which have been discussed in this thread and elsewhere.

The negativity such as possible increased food prices which you choose to debate with such fervour is just one scenario from myriad possibilities.
If you really want to continue your myopic stance so be it - but whether you like it or not, other possibilities do exist.

gfplux

Yesterday evening Mrs May spoke about her plan for EU/British Citizen rights. Last night she said that the FULL details would be published on Monday 26th June. This allows +3 days to knock the document into shape.
Afterwards there were some "private" briefings from the UK side.

Overnight and this morning various EU leaders pushed back at Mays proposals as they "appear" to be a long way from the EU position paper delivered and available to us all two weeks ago.

Today there were separate press conferences at about 15.00 CET. The EU side repeated that they were a start or fell short of their expectations. In Mrs Mays press conference she repeated that the FULL proposal will be published on Monday.

I understand that the "document" is a work in progress and upon her return to London Mrs May and her Brexit advisers will complete it (perhaps influenced by both the Public and more importantly PRIVATE reaction to her speech and briefings)

Anyone who has not read the EU's published proposal 12th June, will find it here.
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/publications/position-paper-essential-principles-citizens-rights_en

There has been some briefing in the U.K. That EU citizens will need to be registered if they are to be included. Now that is going to be interesting. I can't wait to see the form(s)!!!

Originally Britain wanted the cut of date to be when the A50 letter was sent but Mrs May in her press conference seemed to agree with the BBC questioner that the cut of date will be March 2019 when Britain leaves the EU. This allows 21 months for EU citizens to still come to Britain, perhaps mitigating the growing crisis in the agricultural industry.

If, if the paper is published on Monday it will be the FIRST published by Britain in this process.

CKhalvashi

gfplux wrote: »

Originally Britain wanted the cut of date to be when the A50 letter was sent but Mrs May in her press conference seemed to agree with the BBC questioner that the cut of date will be March 2019 when Britain leaves the EU. This allows 21 months for EU citizens to still come to Britain, perhaps mitigating the growing crisis in the agricultural industry.

The UK leaves the EU in March 2019, so March 2019 is the only date that FoM can stop.

This is the part that hopefully Mrs May will learn very quickly, and even more hopefully before Monday.

I expect her proposal to be challenged accordingly in due course, through the High Court, then the Supreme Court, then the ECJ, following the full democratic process.

whatmichaelsays

Conrad wrote: »

Stop the massive cheap labour flow and wages will naturally rise.

Reducing the supply of labour does not increase the value of the output of that labour, which is what any wage rises would be based on.

There is a reason why nations with higher net migration than Britain have higher levels of wage growth than we have. It's called productivity.

If you have evidence that paying a fruit picker more than they currently earn will increase the value of their output, I'd gladly entertain it. I'm pretty sure that you haven't.

Matt_L

Moby wrote: »

Guardian:- 'Once again, this morning, millions of families wake up among us not knowing whether they will be allowed to remain in the country where they have chosen to make their lives. There has to be a very strong reason of national interest even to contemplate causing such upset. There isn’t. It seems very unlikely Spain would kick out our expats on the Costa del Sol, or that France would depopulate the Dordogne. But even if they did, no one really believes that Britain would deport the three million European citizens who live and work here. Why not? Because it would be a massive act of self-harm. As Mrs May said in February: “EU citizens living in the UK make a vital contribution to our economy and society and without them we would be poorer and our public services weaker.” Threatening to make yourself poorer and your NHS weaker isn’t very credible. Nor does anyone believe that, even if she wanted to, Mrs May has the numbers to carry out her threat. She has barely persuaded her Conservative colleagues to back her plan. Last June, in the days immediately after the referendum, David Cameron wanted to reassure EU citizens they would be allowed to stay. All his Cabinet agreed with that unilateral offer, except his Home Secretary, Mrs May, who insisted on blocking it. A vote in the Commons earlier this year was only carried with a nod and a wink to Tory MPs behind the scenes that she didn’t really mean it. Since then, the Government has lost its majority and it seems likely that an opposition motion to grant EU citizens the right to remain unilaterally could be carried.'

gfplux wrote: »

Yesterday evening Mrs May spoke about her plan for EU/British Citizen rights. Last night she said that the FULL details would be published on Monday 26th June. This allows +3 days to knock the document into shape.
Afterwards there were some "private" briefings from the UK side.

Overnight and this morning various EU leaders pushed back at Mays proposals as they "appear" to be a long way from the EU position paper delivered and available to us all two weeks ago.

Today there were separate press conferences at about 15.00 CET. The EU side repeated that they were a start or fell short of their expectations. In Mrs Mays press conference she repeated that the FULL proposal will be published on Monday.

I understand that the "document" is a work in progress and upon her return to London Mrs May and her Brexit advisers will complete it (perhaps influenced by both the Public and more importantly PRIVATE reaction to her speech and briefings)

Anyone who has not read the EU's published proposal 12th June, will find it here.
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/publications/position-paper-essential-principles-citizens-rights_en

There has been some briefing in the U.K. That EU citizens will need to be registered if they are to be included. Now that is going to be interesting. I can't wait to see the form(s)!!!

Originally Britain wanted the cut of date to be when the A50 letter was sent but Mrs May in her press conference seemed to agree with the BBC questioner that the cut of date will be March 2019 when Britain leaves the EU. This allows 21 months for EU citizens to still come to Britain, perhaps mitigating the growing crisis in the agricultural industry.

If, if the paper is published on Monday it will be the FIRST published by Britain in this process.

CKhalvashi wrote: »

The UK leaves the EU in March 2019, so March 2019 is the only date that FoM can stop.

This is the part that hopefully Mrs May will learn very quickly, and even more hopefully before Monday.

I expect her proposal to be challenged accordingly in due course, through the High Court, then the Supreme Court, then the ECJ, following the full democratic process.

:rotfl: Remoaners still moaning

gfplux

Sorry if I have mislead anyone.
Of course the British Government did publish a paper on the 15th May.
I imagine you all have been laughing about this.
I found it here.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-united-kingdoms-exit-from-and-new-partnership-with-the-european-union-white-paper/the-united-kingdoms-exit-from-and-new-partnership-with-the-european-union--2

CKhalvashi

Matt_L wrote: »

:rotfl: Remoaners still moaning

I'm not moaning at all, simply giving my interpretation of the law.

Or am I not allowed to do that now?

gfplux

Matt_L wrote: »

:rotfl: Remoaners still moaning

Hello Matt,
How strange that you can interpret postings about the British Governments position as moaning.
Please read the posts again. You might then understand that this is reviewing the last 24 hours and looking to Mondays big reveal.

whatmichaelsays

ilovehouses wrote: »

Retailers & manufacturers aren't daft. If they thought food manufactured without migrant labour commanded a price premium a quarter of workers in the food manufacturing sector wouldn't be from the EU.

Given that it wasn't that long ago that retailers were so obsessed with getting the cheapest possible product that they didn't even know/care if their beef was actually beef, forgive me for thinking that they aren't going to be passing on 'picked by British worker' premium to our farmers.