Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

always_sunny

Conrad wrote: »

People say they want fairness and fair wages for all. Giving Farmers an excuse to perpetuate slave wages is not my idea of a civilised nation.

Stop the massive cheap labour flow and wages will naturally rise. Consumers may have to pay a little more, they'll cope and anyway Dr Michael Moselys health documentaries inform that middle classes eat far more fruit n veg than others and so the costs will be largely borne my middle classes.

Your idea of civilised nation might be questionable. If you stop massive cheap labour wages may not necessarily rise though the industry may collapse all together if importing goods it is going to be cheaper than paying local [inflated] wages.

Maybe you should read at the agricultural situation in countries like Japan where immigration is not so widespread to see how many locals are flocking to these jobs.

Let me guess, it could never happen here, because in the UK most Brits aspire to work in that field.

Thrugelmir

always_sunny wrote: »

Maybe you should read at the agricultural situation in countries like Japan where immigration is not so widespread to see how many locals are flocking to these jobs.

What's the relevance of connecting Japan to the UK. Not as if Europeans can catch a ferry to get there.

Thrugelmir

ilovehouses wrote: »

Japan isn't really open to low skilled migrant labour and the Japanese don't aspire to be farm workers. You can't see the relevance?

Japan is suffering from an ageing population. Far older than Europe. Our path both here in the UK and in Europe is following a very similar path to Japan. Despite the attempts by Central Banks to steer away from the risk of secular stagnation. .

mayonnaise

Asking probing questions on the Brexit negotiations is now unpatriotic.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/andrea-leadsom-newsnight-emily-maitlis_uk_594d60c5e4b0da2c731b6bd7

gfplux

ilovehouses wrote: »

The issue isn't that we need to identify potential workers - there's probably plenty.

The issue is that any potential labour is more expensive and less efficient than migrant labour (i.e. someone with learning difficulties requiring state support vs a young fit Pole).

The other issue and it's quite fundamental is that Brits don't want to do the jobs that migrants do.

The consumer ultimately has to decide how much they're willing to pay.

With an ageing population young fit Poles also pay social security that will ultimately support Pensions.

gfplux

ilovehouses wrote: »

Why so binary? It's not a question whether we'll manage or not.

I'm more interested in how the consumer will react to increased costs.

There are reports of fewer pickers this year. I am not sure hostility to foreigners has much to do with it but the +\- 20% drop in the Euro value of the pay.
Some posters suggest these pickers can be replaced easily, we will see.
What Britain should worry about is 2018 and perhaps 2019 when or if the number of EU workers (pickers etc) continue to decline and there is no replacement system working.
This is an issue that should not be taken lightly.

gfplux

ilovehouses wrote: »

Just to put a 'sensible managed immigration system' into context there are 100,000 EU workers just in the food and drink manufacturing sector.

To replace* them the government would have to break it's manifesto promise to keep net migration to the tens of thousands.

* yes I do realise they won't all up sticks post brexit

There is a strong PULL to the UK for young people to work in front facing operations that should not be ignored.
They get paid AND improve their English. The second might be more important than the first.
Working in picking or packing just does not enable them to improve their English skills. So they are not attracted to that type of work in the same way.

Thrugelmir

gfplux wrote: »

Working in picking or packing just does not enable them to improve their English skills. So they are not attracted to that type of work in the same way.

The work is seasonal and in the main undertaken by Eastern Europeans. More than likely at MW rates. Even working in Tesco's or Aldi pays better.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

ilovehouses seems to think that food prices will increase.
No evidence mind, just a "feeling"; a thought.
You may as well aim darts at a board ................

ilovehouses wrote: »

I expect the size of the UK food and drink industry to shrink and we'll be more reliant on imports and UK produce that can be produced with a low labour input. It'll mean our food bills will increase and although everything will still be picked by foreigners they won't be here doing it. Some of the migrants will leave and effectively take their jobs with them.

For the posters who think this is all very easy that will be a positive result.

It won't take long before they say it doesn't matter because the high prices will 'fall out' of inflation figures.

Yet again going against evidence from industry itself which I have already posted.

If food prices do indeed increase significantly post-Brexit, this is much more likely to be a reason why:

Tesco, Britain's biggest private sector employer, is to raise pay for hourly paid store staff by an inflation-beating 10.5 percent over the next two years, it said on Friday.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-tesco-pay-idUKKBN19E23L?il=0

As an aside, oil prices are lower again (as has been mentioned already) by $10/barrel compared to even a month ago.
How does any produce arrive at its retail destination?
Does the cost of transport have no bearing upon the cost of produce?
Of course it does; rising fuel costs increase the price of the end product just as falling fuel has the opposite effect.

Your myopic belief that food prices will increase is not a foregone conclusion and - fortunately - just because you expect something does not mean that it will happen.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Elsewhere in the EU, Denmark has commissioned a study which suggests that they will lose almost half of their agri-food exports to the UK even in the event of an agreement with the EU.
In the event of "no deal" it could be 79% lost!

The study by University of Copenhagen researchers for the Ministry of Environment and Food, found the "best case scenario" with a free trade agreement between the block and UK, would see Danish food exports to Britain fall by as much as 48 percent.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-denmark-trade-idUKKBN19E1ED?il=0

I see a suggestion in there that the EU could absorb this excess, should it happen.
Which leads me to question why the rest of the EU does not already use these products as well as what they would be replacing.
But I guess we're not supposed to think about that.