Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

kabayiri

always_sunny wrote: »

Who cares? Hasn't the EU made it blatantly clear to the UK?
That over a year after the referendum the position is still the same? That after months after triggering Art 50 the position hasn't changed? What part of it is not sinking in ?

The only problem is that brexiteers do not want to believe that the EU is not bluffing, that the EU really doesn't care. The same 'philosophy' is also spreading across folks in EU countries, sad to see you go but just hurry up and go.

Even the EU admits that negotiation progress has been slow at best.

It's just too early to see any real fault lines, or priorities being exposed.

But they will be exposed.

kabayiri

always_sunny wrote: »

...
The EU realistically can afford to sit and wait and take 10 years to do a deal.
The UK is in a weaker position, unless a deal is reached, prospects are grim.
This is widely acknowledged (from the UK as well, it's not a myth)
...

There is no EU collective when it comes to the welfare of individual states or even regions.

A hard Brexit with an acrimonious tone would shaft Eire. The Irish PM knows this full well.

Oddly, the real enemy on both sides could be time, and there are ways you can play this to your advantage as well as disadvantage.

fewgroats

We should have agreed it with Eire before we had a referendum. It could have all been solved with good planning, though planning seems an alien concept.

Eric_the_half_a_bee

fewgroats wrote: »

We should have agreed it with Eire before we had a referendum.

"We would like to be independent. Do you object?"

"Yes"

"Oh, OK then, we won't bother"

kabayiri

Eric_the_half_a_bee wrote: »

"We would like to be independent. Do you object?"

"Yes"

"Oh, OK then, we won't bother"

And...over the other shoulder we have the Scots saying "why are you talking to Eire? Aren't we more important?"

TrickyTree83

always_sunny wrote: »

It's not about insignificancy per se but more about that the UK is convinced to be better than any other EU member and deserves to be kept on a pedestal. This belief is not shared, no one else in the EU believes it.

This topic keeps recurring.

Have you checked the list of contributors to the EU budget? Last time I did the UK was 2nd highest net.

Then there's the fact that the EU budget is determined by GDP of the members. So the larger economies in the EU after the UK leaves will bear a greater burden just to maintain the commitments they've made to those who are net beneficiaries.

If exports to the UK drying up causes economic downturns on the continent then they will pay less into the EU budget, true, but then the beneficiaries will begin to lose out as there is less to go around.

It's nothing to do with the UK being on pedestals or anything like that. It's just the reality of the situation. The EU's budgetary concerns are a powder keg just waiting to be set off. How do you think the eastern members would take to facing less money, commitments broken as well as having migrants forced upon them that they do not want? Poland and Hungary are already at odds with the bureaucracy in Brussels.

always_sunny

kabayiri wrote: »

There is no EU collective when it comes to the welfare of individual states or even regions.

A hard Brexit with an acrimonious tone would shaft Eire. The Irish PM knows this full well.

Oddly, the real enemy on both sides could be time, and there are ways you can play this to your advantage as well as disadvantage.

But it doesn't change the bottomline that [to date] no EU member state is pushing for concessions towards the UK to jeopardise the EU. Not even Eire.

always_sunny

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

This topic keeps recurring.

Have you checked the list of contributors to the EU budget? Last time I did the UK was 2nd highest net.

Then there's the fact that the EU budget is determined by GDP of the members. So the larger economies in the EU after the UK leaves will bear a greater burden just to maintain the commitments they've made to those who are net beneficiaries.

If exports to the UK drying up causes economic downturns on the continent then they will pay less into the EU budget, true, but then the beneficiaries will begin to lose out as there is less to go around.

It's nothing to do with the UK being on pedestals or anything like that. It's just the reality of the situation. The EU's budgetary concerns are a powder keg just waiting to be set off. How do you think the eastern members would take to facing less money, commitments broken as well as having migrants forced upon them that they do not want? Poland and Hungary are already at odds with the bureaucracy in Brussels.

You keep going on as if money is the only thing that matters and the same argument works for the UK.

For the UK being in the EU it makes more financial sense. But as we keep hearing that for Britons, losing wealth, jobs, etc is a price worth paying for Brexit.
For the EU, losing the [money from the] UK is a price worth paying for future cohesion and integration by getting rid of a 'difficult' member.

The flaw in your argument is believing that the UK holds all the cards and that this logic only works on the UK side, but it's not the case at all.

Tromking

Wage suppression due to unlimited cheap labour seems to be easing partly as a result of UK's decision to leave the EU.
A key motivation for many a leave voter I recall.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40853467

Herzlos

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Then there's the fact that the EU budget is determined by GDP of the members. So the larger economies in the EU after the UK leaves will bear a greater burden just to maintain the commitments they've made to those who are net beneficiaries.

And the EU will just have to reduce it's expectations regarding budget until it recovers. You are assuming though, that somehow we'll pay in less than we used to. It's entirely plausible that we'll pay in as much (give or take) than we did before. Plus their costs will presumably go down a bit by the reduction in size - they've got less MEPs to pay for (salary, expenses, accomodation), for a start.

IF we leave the EU, stop contributing anything, and stop buying anything from the EU, they'll have a hard few years until they readjust. But is any of that actually likely?