Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

Conrad

Herzlos wrote: »

Not you personally, but the Leavers contingent on here (particularly Conrad) keeps referring to how the German car industry won't let us get a bad deal, and they'll put pressure on Merkel to give us everything we want.

(Conrad did switch to Dutch tulip farmers though, so I'm not sure what his stance on German car manufacturers is now).

Edit: right on cue. So which source do we believe? The experts we don't trust, or the manufacturers we rely on?

You guys are deluded if you think actual German manufacturers already facing various issues such as fake emissions compensation and combustion engine ban putting jobs at risk, will further degrade their business by making it harder to sell into UK


Combustion engine ban puts 600,000 German jobs at risk:
http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-germany-emissions-idUKKBN1A319I)


As ever you seek to mis-characterise what I say. I did not 'SWITCH' to Dutch flower growers, I merely pointed to that sector as yet another calling for a no harm trade deal


TARIFFS - lets once more remind ourselves the UK would be the biggest beneficiary by far in terms of tariff revenue collection. Our currency fall already makes our exports relatively more competitive, so if we also collect billions in tariffs, we could divert the revenue to boosting UK business.

mayonnaise

Global broadcasters with bases in UK look to Amsterdam as EU divorce talks stall

Akin to global banks, international media companies like Discovery, Sweden’s Modern Times Group and Time Warner’s Turner International use UK licences to access the European Union and must fast decide whether to relocate some operations to preserve that access

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-latest-news-media-broadcasters-uk-headquarters-amsterdam-eu-talks-discovery-communications-a7882026.html

Drip..drip...drip...

kabayiri

Herzlos wrote: »

I think at this stage the EU will just have to let the UK walk away before they understand that they weren't bluffing.

That'll be fun to watch

We all argue about the short term implications, but really it's the long term which carries far more significance.

Our relationship with the European continent has been let's say mixed for most of our history.

We tend to side with the American view of the commercial world more readily than our continental cousins. It's arguable whether we ever made for model EU participants.

If things like German cars start to fall out of favour, it's a long climb back.

There was a radio ad the other day for Subaru. They promoted their new engine as not having to rely on this "adblue nonsense". Clearly, other world manufacturers are always going to sniff out an opportunity.

Conrad

Drip, drip, drip;



American drugs giant Mallinckrodt move global HQ to UK


http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-3885754/US-drugs-giant-backs-post-Brexit-Britain-global-headquarters-near-Heathrow-Airport.html

Boost for Britain as BMW picks Oxford over Germany and Netherlands to build new electric Mini


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/07/25/boost-britain-bmw-picks-oxford-germany-netherlands-build-new/




Backing for post-Brexit Britain from Qatari investment fund and Siemens


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/03/27/backing-post-brexit-britain-qatari-investment-fund-siemens/


McLaren, the supercar maker, moving production of carbon fibre chassis from Austria to the UK.


https://www.ft.com/content/03ae9358-edf5-11e6-930f-061b01e23655?mhq5j=e3





Toyota is to invest £240m into modernings its car plant in Derbyshire in a major boost for the automotive industry after Britain’s vote to leave the EU.


https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/mar/16/toyota-brexit-derbyshire-plant-burnaston-uk





Google's opening a huge new tech hub in London for training the UK in digital skills


http://www.cityam.com/266478/googles-opening-huge-new-tech-hub-london-training-uk


Jaguar-Landover (10,000 new jobs)http://www.coventrytelegraph.net/news/coventry-news/jaguar-land-rover-announce-thousands-13202663


Rolls-Royce vows to protect 7,000 jobs with £150m investment https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jun/29/rolls-royce-jobs-investment-unions-uk-brexit


McDonald’s moves international HQ from Brussels to UK.


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/mcdonald-s-moves-non-us-base-to-uk-after-run-in-with-eu-tax-regulators-a7464106.html



Deutsche Bank commits to London office


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39378521


French Credit Agricole agree new lease in London


http://www.cityam.com/267944/boost-brexit-britain-french-banking-giant-credit-agricole





AMAZON NEW JOBS; The 450 new high tech jobs are in addition to the 5,000 full time UK jobs Amazon has pledged.


http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-amazon-idUKKBN1AA191?il=0




A fully electric version of the Mini to be built in Cowley, Oxford, BMW confirms


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40718892







OTHER INVESTMENT BY;


Facebook


Amazon


Dyson


Softbank (£24 bn)


Wells Fargo Bank


Alstom


Jet2


Boeing


UBS


Nissan


Apple new London headquarters at Battersea


Canadian Trade Office opening in London

kabayiri

Herzlos wrote: »

...
For instance, the EU rejected TTIP. Will we do the same? Are we going to jump from being beholden to the EU to being beholden to the US?

That's an interesting question.

Look at it from an USA point of view.

Trump won't be the first President to rely on foreign policy to shore up deficiencies at home.

He might think that he could sell an UK deal as evidence of his new vision of the world.

CKhalvashi

cogito wrote: »

Your stance appears to be that it's OK for one nation to seize the territory of another. How 19th century.

If Russia occupied parts of Georgia under the pretext of protecting Russians living there, how would you feel about that?

The two situations being completely different due to the historic status of Crimea.

I don't think that Georgia should join the EU but I think that the UK should remain in the EU, due to completely different situations again.

Oh, and please do cast your memory back 9 years ago today.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

mayonnaise wrote: »

I remember the usual suspects pontificating on here how the EU would unravel after the brexit vote.
And here we are, 1 year later, and the EU is more unified than ever, with their economies powering ahead while the UK is stuck in anemic growth.
As for our contribution, 8bn is small change in the grand scheme of things. The EU is a 20tn/year economy. You can rest assured that a solution will be found, despite what the Express and Daily Mail tell us.
Some countries will need to increase their contribution or the EU will have to tinker on the spending side. Probably a combination of the two.

Really, we are not that important. (*)

(*) Disclaimer: This is not a UK-disparaging nor unpatriotic comment. Just a matter of fact.

Fact?
Really?
:rotfl:
Besides your rather liberal interpretation of figures, you tried that "the EU is great, folks" stance in a separate thread; how's that going in your quest to prove EU unification and superiority?

From that thread alone:

"Dishonest Germans"; "Summer Hotspots" etc form the rabidly-pro Politico who are at last themselves acknowledging some EU difficulties.

EU threats towards Poland, Hungary, Slovakia & Czech Republic re: immigrants and more besides.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/29/brexit-blow-20bn-hole-eu-budget-european-commissioner (Because the budget of the EU is not 20tn/year, is it? )

Oh & BTW, nobody AFAIK said "the EU would unravel after the brexit vote" ( : Brexit & anaemic since you're quick to point out my errors).
There were (and indeed still are) a long list of potentially disruptive factors within the EU which even senior EU politicians accept as being potentially critical to the EU's continued existence.

No, the UK isn't perfect.
Neither though is the EU.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

mayonnaise wrote: »

Global broadcasters with bases in UK look to Amsterdam as EU divorce talks stall



http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-latest-news-media-broadcasters-uk-headquarters-amsterdam-eu-talks-discovery-communications-a7882026.html

Drip..drip...drip...

And yet ............
"Euronext renews deal with LSE business in clearing u-turn"

Pan-European exchange Euronext has extended its contract with Britain's LCH in a surprise move that could help defuse tension over where euro-denominated trades are cleared after Brexit.
Clearing, an arcane part of the plumbing of financial markets, has become highly politicized since Britain's vote to leave the European Union in June last year.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-lse-euronext-clearing-idUKKBN1AO0VK

BTW, that has happened.
It is not "talking, thinking, maybe, might" as in your linked article.

cogito

CKhalvashi wrote: »

The two situations being completely different due to the historic status of Crimea.

I don't think that Georgia should join the EU but I think that the UK should remain in the EU, due to completely different situations again.

Oh, and please do cast your memory back 9 years ago today.

I was teasing you, CK. But if you want me to draw attention to the Georgian military's use of cluster bombs and multiple rocket launchers in civilian areas, I'm happy to play.

Thrugelmir

always_sunny wrote: »

If the UK GDP declines/contracts, the UK will have less money to spend

GDP is not a measurement of money. A lot of consumer money spent is on imports. Which is making the UK poorer.