Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

always_sunny

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Where did I talk about being slow at business? I thought it was obvious that I was talking about being slow at forging new trading relationships.

When out of the customs union the UK will only need 2 parties to agree to forge new trade deals. The EU will require 28 (27 members + the other party).

The position of the EU is constantly over exaggerated by people on this forum. Constantly.

During the 2008 crash our exports to the EU were declining, our exports to the rest of the world were increasing and yet we weathered the storm with higher growth than any of the other G7 nations during that period. The current stagnation is purely down to uncertainty, which we are being told but to those with an agenda it's being blamed on leaving the EU rather than the uncertainty around doing so. Once the terms are known we'll see business leaving the UK and also business coming into the UK as a result.

What about the position of the UK? Do you think it is often exaggerated by people on this forum? Constantly?

Forging new trading relationship is a slow process for [continental] Europeans, as it is for Japanese or Chinese. That is driven by conservative culture that is adverse to risk.

The UK is part of this bloc [the EU] but doesn't fit the cultural profile.
In the continent you wait and give way before merging into a motorway, in the UK you gain speed on the slip road and merge in. See, even driving, opposite approach. (we're not debating what is safer)

Go and find other partners who can make quick decisions and enjoy, stop blaming member of the EU for being what they have always been.

always_sunny

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Except when you look at the data, and not at media headlines, it is quite clear that we are particularly important despite your protestations to the contrary. You say that out of a belief, whereas I've shown you before that the data says otherwise.

Being in the top 5 export destinations for nearly all of the EU net contributors means a bad deal hurts the net contributors twice and they'll be passing some of this hurt on to the rest of the members. So to think that the likes of Bulgaria don't have skin in the game is wrong. To the Bulgaria's, Latvia's, etc.. the UK leaving does have an economic impact, just by proxy.

Take Germany and the car industry and what did they say?
German industry warns UK not to expect help in Brexit negotiations
Bosses say the priority is to protect the single market, dashing hopes that exporters will put pressure on Merkel for a favourable trade deal

Why do you think France or Italy will be doing differently? What does the EU have to do to make the UK understand?

Herzlos

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Where did I talk about being slow at business? I thought it was obvious that I was talking about being slow at forging new trading relationships.

Business and trading overlap, surely? You can arrange a trade agreement pretty much instantly (by agreeing to all of their demands), but then you'll need UK companies to make agreements with companies from whomever to actually buy/sell/transport the stuff.

Doing that from within the EU framework means that if the other company already trades in/out of the EU there's no additional work involved. If there's new sets of regulations they'll need to sort that too.

Again, in theory being able to make deals faster is a good thing (obviously), but only if the deals themselves are worthwhile. Being a much smaller entity than the EU we're now going from the big player in any deal to the small player. We lose the ability to set the terms.

For instance, the EU rejected TTIP. Will we do the same? Are we going to jump from being beholden to the EU to being beholden to the US?

Herzlos

always_sunny wrote: »

What does the EU have to do to make the UK understand?

I think at this stage the EU will just have to let the UK walk away before they understand that they weren't bluffing.

That'll be fun to watch

TrickyTree83

always_sunny wrote: »

What about the position of the UK? Do you think it is often exaggerated by people on this forum? Constantly?

Forging new trading relationship is a slow process for [continental] Europeans, as it is for Japanese or Chinese. That is driven by conservative culture that is adverse to risk.

The UK is part of this bloc [the EU] but doesn't fit the cultural profile.
In the continent you wait and give way before merging into a motorway, in the UK you gain speed on the slip road and merge in. See, even driving, opposite approach. (we're not debating what is safer)

Go and find other partners who can make quick decisions and enjoy, stop blaming member of the EU for being what they have always been.

It's a fact of bureaucracy rather than attacking their culture. And the motorway analogy - really?

Why are you going so wildly off topic and not checking the economic statistics as I suggested on a forum about economics?

TrickyTree83

always_sunny wrote: »

Take Germany and the car industry and what did they say?
German industry warns UK not to expect help in Brexit negotiations
Bosses say the priority is to protect the single market, dashing hopes that exporters will put pressure on Merkel for a favourable trade deal

Why do you think France or Italy will be doing differently? What does the EU have to do to make the UK understand?

I didn't say we expected help from the car industry.

I said it will hurt both.

Conrad

always_sunny wrote: »

Take Germany and the car industry and what did they say?
German industry warns UK not to expect help in Brexit negotiations
Bosses say the priority is to protect the single market, dashing hopes that exporters will put pressure on Merkel for a favourable trade deal

Why do you think France or Italy will be doing differently? What does the EU have to do to make the UK understand?

Deloitte’s German unit study - 'hit to German carmakers from a “no-deal”, will be traumatic' ERGO GOOD UK DEAL

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/06/22/europe-waking-impact-hard-brexit/

"We shouldn't forget that 750,000 jobs in Germany depend on the trade with the United Kingdom",

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39522265

DUTCH PARLIAMENT
;
'Any restriction on free trade with UK would be at the cost of Dutch prosperity and jobs'
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-netherlands-idUKKBN16S17A?il=0


Hungary
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qo06pb1hXbU

Hungarian Foreign Minister;
3.08 - "Britain gets free hand you will be able to sign global free trade deals which EU does not have, and this will harm European competiveness"

4.30 - "we want to end up with a mutually beneficial trade deal, the most comprehensive economic trade & investment partnership"


Brexit fears mount in Spain
Spanish exporter federation wants no harm deal to ensure trade with UK not disrupted.
http://www.fruitnet.com/fpj/article/171734/brexit-fears-mount-in-spain

Spanish Govt wants mutually beneficial trade agreement with UK
http://uk.businessinsider.com/spain-wants-to-start-brexit-trade-talks-2017-1

Flemish rally to avoid a hard Brexit
BELGIUM DEMANDS GOOD UK TRADE DEAL OR 450,000 BELGIAN JOBS AT RISK;
Flemish Minister President insisted that EU will need trade deal-plus that will privilege UK biz
http://www.politico.eu/article/flanders-fabrics-face-brexit-backlash/
Belgian biz is looking for closest possible trade ties with the UK after the country quits the free trade bloc
http://deredactie.be/cm/vrtnieuws.english/News/1.2879376#

SWEDEN
Sweden in favour of free trade and we want a solution that is as beneficial as possible” Swedish finance minister
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/24/sweden-holds-out-olive-branch-to-brexit-britain/
.

Herzlos

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

I didn't say we expected help from the car industry.

Not you personally, but the Leavers contingent on here (particularly Conrad) keeps referring to how the German car industry won't let us get a bad deal, and they'll put pressure on Merkel to give us everything we want.

(Conrad did switch to Dutch tulip farmers though, so I'm not sure what his stance on German car manufacturers is now).

Edit: right on cue. So which source do we believe? The experts we don't trust, or the manufacturers we rely on?

always_sunny

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

It's a fact of bureaucracy rather than attacking their culture. And the motorway analogy - really?

Why are you going so wildly off topic and not checking the economic statistics as I suggested on a forum about economics?

We checked economic statistics and the consensus from pretty much all bodies is that Brexit is detrimental to the UK economy at least for the very short/medium term. That is the fact.
Will it hurt the EU, yes of course but because of its size the EU is in a better position to absorb the shock.

Brexit is not a financial decision but a populist one to be independent so economic statistic bring little to the table.

Conrad

With regards Ireland, Norway is not in Customs Union but goods and services flow friction free between Sweden and Norway.