Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

Thrugelmir

always_sunny wrote: »

Take Germany and the car industry and what did they say?

Why would they want to help. They would would prefer to put Ford, Nissan, Tata, Toyota, Honda etc out of business.

Conrad

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Pan-European exchange Euronext has extended its contract with Britain's LCH in a surprise move that could help defuse tension over where euro-denominated trades are cleared after Brexit.


http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-lse-euronext-clearing-idUKKBN1AO0VK

Notice the use of the word SURPRISE yet again.
It's no surprise to us Brexiteers that the worlds number 1 financial hub carries on winning.


As I pointed out endlessly, you cannot just up sticks to Frankfurt and start trading. Trading relies on a network of face to face contacts built up over years.


I also pointed out new tough EU regulations coming down the pipe that would make the EU less attractive for FS.

always_sunny

Conrad wrote: »

Notice the use of the word SURPRISE yet again.
It's no surprise to us Brexiteers that the worlds number 1 financial hub carries on winning.


As I pointed out endlessly, you cannot just up sticks to Frankfurt and start trading. Trading relies on a network of face to face contacts built up over years.


I also pointed out new tough EU regulations coming down the pipe that would make the EU less attractive for FS.

It depends how/what you read though.
Reuters: "Pan-European exchange Euronext has extended its contract with Britain's LCH in a surprise move that could help defuse tension over where euro-denominated trades are cleared after Brexit"

then continues to say:
"Under the deal, Euronext will swap its 2.3 percent stake in LCH Group in London for an 11.1 percent share in LCH's Paris unit, giving Euronext and its shareholders a financial incentive to increase clearing volumes in France."

and it adds:
"The Bank of France, which regulates LCH SA, said the deal would be good for Paris as a financial center, ensuring continuity and stability of trading. Paris wants to attract securities trading by banks from London after Brexit and cheaper clearing could help it do so."

Sounds like a good win for Paris in case London cannot secure continuity of clearing. Great news!

mayonnaise

always_sunny wrote: »

Sounds like a good win for Paris in case London cannot secure continuity of clearing. Great news!

Euronext, LCH, Bank of France, et al clearly didn't get Conrad's memo on the impossibility of moving FinServ to the continent and upcoming new tough EU regulations.

always_sunny

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Why would they want to help. They would would prefer to put Ford, Nissan, Tata, Toyota, Honda etc out of business.

Honestly I would ask, why would Britain want German car makers to put any pressure for a deal when decrease import of German cars would open the door for American cars (and possible leverage with the United States). They'd thrilled!

Conrad

mayonnaise wrote: »

Euronext, LCH, Bank of France, et al clearly didn't get Conrad's memo on the impossibility of moving FinServ to the continent and upcoming new tough EU regulations.

So hows the Brexit City jobs disaster going I wonder? Let me guess, bad news due to looming Brexit, but good news is met with 'but we haven't left yet'.

Job openings in the City were 17% higher in June 2017 compared to the same period last year


https://thezreview.com/2017/07/24/city-london-experiencing-jobs-boom/

A_Medium_Size_Jock

always_sunny wrote: »

It depends how/what you read though.
Reuters: "Pan-European exchange Euronext has extended its contract with Britain's LCH in a surprise move that could help defuse tension over where euro-denominated trades are cleared after Brexit"

then continues to say:
"Under the deal, Euronext will swap its 2.3 percent stake in LCH Group in London for an 11.1 percent share in LCH's Paris unit, giving Euronext and its shareholders a financial incentive to increase clearing volumes in France."

and it adds:
"The Bank of France, which regulates LCH SA, said the deal would be good for Paris as a financial center, ensuring continuity and stability of trading. Paris wants to attract securities trading by banks from London after Brexit and cheaper clearing could help it do so."

Sounds like a good win for Paris in case London cannot secure continuity of clearing. Great news!

Ah, you choose those little bits and ignore others eh?
Like:

Euronext (ENX.PA) had said in April that it planned to use Intercontinental Exchange (ICE.N) in the Netherlands for clearing, when its contract with LCH, which is owned by the London Stock Exchange Group (LSE.L), expired in 2018.
But on Tuesday Euronext and LCH said they have signed binding terms for a 10-year clearing deal

Or:

.... the deal will make it harder for Deutsche Boerse (DB1Gn.DE) owned rival Eurex in Frankfurt to pick up any euro clearing business that shifted to the single currency area.

Now you can try as hard as you might to put your own "spin" in this but the fact remains that this is very good news for the London Stock Exchange Group.
The Netherlands and Frankfurt didn't do very well with this, did they?
Which makes this piece look spot-on, TBH:

City of London ‘can never be overtaken by Micky Mouse EU versions’

http://www.westmonster.com/city-of-london-can-never-be-overtaken-by-micky-mouse-eu-versions/

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Oh that reminds me - a certain pro-EU and/or pro-remain section of this forum were so adamant last week regarding Mark Carney's reputation.
That means they will agree with this, then:

Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England (BoE), believes the UK's financial sector could double in size within the next 25 years.

http://www.cityam.com/269711/bank-england-governor-mark-carney-sees-city-doubling-size
:T

mayonnaise

Conrad wrote: »

So hows the Brexit City jobs disaster going I wonder? Let me guess, bad news due to looming Brexit, but good news is met with 'but we haven't left yet'.

Job openings in the City were 17% higher in June 2017 compared to the same period last year


https://thezreview.com/2017/07/24/city-london-experiencing-jobs-boom/

Ah yes, I forgot about the new Robert Walters City Job Index.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

always_sunny wrote: »

Honestly I would ask, why would Britain want German car makers to put any pressure for a deal when decrease import of German cars would open the door for American cars (and possible leverage with the United States). They'd thrilled!

Firstly the poor grammar makes your post at times near-illegible.

Secondly it's not Britain wanting German help, it's Germans themselves recognising the risk.
Here's just one example with the President of the Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA) Matthias Wissmann saying:

"In the view of the German automotive industry, everything must be done to maintain the free movement of goods and services between Britain and the other EU countries in the future."

https://www.vda.de/en/press/press-releases/20170329-wissmann-brexit-negotiations-should-be-swift-and-constructive.html