Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

TrickyTree83

gfplux wrote: »

I am not going to read this particular report but does it say that all the German car job losses will be in Germany. Does it indicate how many job losses at the BMW plant in America.
Thanks

It states that RoW (rest of world) imports into the UK would increase, and thus RoW profits increase. So presumably none.

You should look at the report. It appears unbiased and explains the modelling of the analysis. Better than conjecture.

gfplux

Not long to go until the next round of talks just under three weeks and before that we are promised a "deluge" of position papers from Britain.
Before that all happens erhaps the following will bring some light relief or Despair.
Recent news has suggested that Britains net weekly contribution to the EU is £150 million a week = £7,800 million a year.
This compares to Boris Johnsons BIG RED BUS figure of £350 million a week = £18,200 million a year.
Does this make the lie from Boris Johnson worse or better. Does this mean only an extra £150 million a week will be given to the NHS.
Alan Sugar has suggested that Boris and all the others that stood in front of the bus and endorsed the lie should go to jail.
Will Boris and his cronies be saved from jail if they can show that "in real terms" as politicians like to say they are already giving the NHS this money?

gfplux

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

It states that RoW (rest of world) imports into the UK would increase, and thus RoW profits increase. So presumably none.

You should look at the report. It appears unbiased and explains the modelling of the analysis. Better than conjecture.

It's dependant on wether the BMW's from the USA come directly into the UK or into (for example) Germany for onward distribution in the EU.
My last two American made BMW's came to Luxembourg via the BMW Benelux distributor.
If Britain were to make a free trade deal with America I imagine this will benefit BMW as well as other makes being produced in the USA.

When I get back from the beach I will have a look at the report.

mayonnaise

Conrad wrote: »

Youth Unemployment:
46% Greece
39% Spain
35% Italy
26% Croatia
23% Portugal
22% Belgium
21% France
21% Finland
20% Cyprus
17% Sweden
13% UK

Why stop at the UK?

13% UK
11% Ireland
11% Denmark
11% Hungary
10% Malta
10% Slovenia
10% Austria
9% Czech Republic
9% Netherlands
7% Germany

TrickyTree83

gfplux wrote: »

It's dependant on wether the BMW's from the USA come directly into the UK or into (for example) Germany for onward distribution in the EU.
My last two American made BMW's came to Luxembourg via the BMW Benelux distributor.
If Britain were to make a free trade deal with America I imagine this will benefit BMW as well as other makes being produced in the USA.

When I get back from the beach I will have a look at the report.

It's not an analysis of BMW in particular, it does say that RoW sales will increase as a result of multiple factors and EU-27 sales will decrease with an additional analysis of the German market in isolation.

So the BMW group would lose jobs, where those losses fall is anyone's guess.

If there were a trade deal with America then the American division would certainly benefit by selling into the UK via that route, which helps America and also manufacturers in the UK to sell into America. I would think in that scenario they may choose to subsidise the German jobs or it'll be the German jobs that go.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

gfplux wrote: »

Looks like UK has done very well IN THE EU.

As said:

Eric_the_half_a_bee wrote: »

Looks like UK has done very well despite being IN THE EU.

Unless you accept that this year's poor growth to date etc. etc. etc. (look at what the pro-EU posts suggest in this thread alone for ideas) is also as a result of being "IN THE EU."?
Because you really can't have it both ways.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

All this talk of BMW & possible cuts .............. but what about VW who are already expressing concerns, and this before the EU cartel investigations too?
"VW workers want new model for Germany to boost flagging output"

The carmaker's powerful unions are concerned that a 3.8 percent drop in first-half group vehicle output in Germany, fueled by waning demand for the Golf and Passat models, could inspire further cuts in Volkswagen's (VW) high-cost home market.
Europe's largest automaker last November agreed with unions to cut thousands of jobs through natural attrition, weed out red tape and cut R&D costs under a so-called future pact to revive the core namesake brand.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-volkswagen-strategy-idUKKBN1AP07W

buglawton

Herzlos wrote: »

Fair point. My point being that even the worst case for the German car industry is not going to be enough to force the EU to give us a super special deal.

Whilst I don't remember much about 1992 (being in primary school), I can't really comment. Didn't we have much bigger local car & steel industries at the time, which would presumably mean less dependence on foreign currencies?

Does anyone know what happened to the £ cost of cars between 92 and 93? Did they go up by the 15% being predicted by Brexit?

Someone could (probably has) written a Phd on why the UK economy perked up after exit from the ERM and if cars were anything to go by , consumer spending was up. I expect it was interest rates falling like a stone.

No doubt the likes of Deliotte, if asked in advance 'what will happen if UK drops out of ERM' would have said, UK car sales down due to higher import prices - and been wrong.

Thatcher too was wrong to keep the UK stuck to the DM on a point of pride. She herself said 'You can't buck the market'.

The fact that the UK bounced out of both the ERM and the 2007/2008 crisis quite successfully means I discount the Brexit doomsayers when they forecast trade and the economy.

Deliotte's analysis for example, deals in numbers only and not in the biggest variable - how German industry will force the EU mandarins hand and make them sensible.

Herzlos

Are there any other methods available to boost the economy since interest rates are still on the ground? We're looking to have a shrink in consumer spending as debt increases, and I can't think of any way we'll kick start that level of spending without doing something drastic.

I think it's fair to assume that if car prices go up, some non-zero percentage of people will either move down market or hold off purchases for longer.

I'm not even sure if another scrappage deal would help?

setmefree2

Top German MEP on Brexit: ‘For Christ’s Sake, Give Them the Best Trade Deal Possible

Henkel complained that hardliners within the bloc — specifically chief negotiator Michel Barnier and the European Parliament’s representative in the talks, Guy Verhofstadt — were putting Germany’s substantial trade surplus with the United Kingdom at risk by adopting a belligerent stance, suggesting Britain could go to the end of the queue for an EU trade deal in order to make a point.
“Why have they said this when suddenly they’ve come up with a very quick deal for Japan?” he railed. "That by itself shows they want to punish Britain. For Christ’s sake, Japan was never at the beginning of any queue.”

“They are still in the mode of punishment, rather than in the mode of instead of doing the best thing in our own interests,” the MEP complained.
“We need negotiators there who are looking at the interests of the European Union, and not at the interests of what do we need to do to avoid another Brexit.”
Henkel’s classically liberal Free Democratic Party has been kingmaker in most German elections since the Second World War, and is thought to be on course to help Chancellor Angela Merkel form a government after this year’s federal elections.
Henkel has previously described the Free Democrats as a “very British-minded party in favour of free trade and market economics. Our view is that we should get along with the British as well as possible [and] a successful Brexit is of fundamental importance to Germany”.
Henkel is not alone in warning that failure to secure a good deal with Britain will damage the European Union, with the Hungarian foreign minister recently warning that a ‘No Deal’ situation would be a “nightmare scenario” for European exporters.
“[T]he problem is the EU is very slow on free trade agreements, and if Britain gets free hands then you will be able to sign free trade agreements with India, with Turkey, with the U.S., with Australia, with which the European Union does not have free trade agreements,” he explained.
“So, if this is the case, then it will harm our competitiveness, harm the competitiveness of Europeans furthermore … we want the most comprehensive economic trade and investment partnership with the UK in the future.”
Research suggests that a ‘No Deal’ scenario would inflict £12.9 billion in tariffs on EU exporters compared to just £5.2 billion for British exporters – who could be compensated through a combination of research grants, subsidies, and general tax cuts funded through EU tariff revenues and savings on EU budget contributions.

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017/08/09/top-german-meps-brexit-warning-country-give-best-trade-deal-possible/