Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

gfplux

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

It states that RoW (rest of world) imports into the UK would increase, and thus RoW profits increase. So presumably none.

You should look at the report. It appears unbiased and explains the modelling of the analysis. Better than conjecture.

Back from the beach.
I have read the report and it appears well balanced with their own caveats.
I see that the ROW numbers must include BMW X range produced in the USA
The report has been produced with their German clients in mind as all the contacts are in Germany. Which is why there is no mention of how many job losses in the UK sales and after service. A huge drop in numbers of car sold would also have a not unnoticed economic effect in the U.K.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

setmefree2 wrote: »

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017/08/09/top-german-meps-brexit-warning-country-give-best-trade-deal-possible/

Be prepared to have this repudiated by the pro-EU pro-remain brigade in here.
Because it's regarding Hans-Olaf Henkel - and he's not pro-EU, see?
Never mind the little fact that he's an elected MEP.
Here's an interesting report from the New York Times in 2014 telling us a little more about him:
https://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/20/business/international/a-german-voice-hans-olaf-henkel-calls-for-euros-abolition.html


Also today, the Czech Republic file a lawsuit against the EU:

Czechs take legal action over EU rules on gun control

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-eu-guncontrol-czech-idUKKBN1AP1SG?il=0

With the EU vs Poland & logging; the EU vs Poland/Hungary/Slovakia/Czech Republic & migrant quotas and now this it looks like EU relations with it's eastern member countries is not so good.

Thrugelmir

Herzlos wrote: »

Are there any other methods available to boost the economy since interest rates are still on the ground?

The BOE's mandate is twofold, to maintain financial stability and control inflation. Whether the economy performs well or not. Is dependent upon the actions of both the Government and those of many many individuals. In case you missed the news the repercussions from the GFC have possibly the best part of a couple of decades to go. Going by the curve. The US is only just turning the corner. The UK is some 2-3 years behind. With the EU lagging even further behind.

Questionable if average pay rates will rise sufficiently to give the economy a boost. An issue for much of the developed world not just the UK.

Thrugelmir

gfplux wrote: »

Not long to go until the next round of talks just under three weeks and before that we are promised a "deluge" of position papers from Britain.
Before that all happens erhaps the following will bring some light relief or Despair.
Recent news has suggested that Britains net weekly contribution to the EU is £150 million a week = £7,800 million a year.
This compares to Boris Johnsons BIG RED BUS figure of £350 million a week = £18,200 million a year.
Does this make the lie from Boris Johnson worse or better. Does this mean only an extra £150 million a week will be given to the NHS.
Alan Sugar has suggested that Boris and all the others that stood in front of the bus and endorsed the lie should go to jail.
Will Boris and his cronies be saved from jail if they can show that "in real terms" as politicians like to say they are already giving the NHS this money?

If you were to pay personal and Corporate taxes in Luxembourg at the same rate as we do in the UK. Then you too could contribute more to the EU budget.

TrickyTree83

gfplux wrote: »

Back from the beach.
I have read the report and it appears well balanced with their own caveats.
I see that the ROW numbers must include BMW X range produced in the USA
The report has been produced with their German clients in mind as all the contacts are in Germany. Which is why there is no mention of how many job losses in the UK sales and after service. A huge drop in numbers of car sold would also have a not unnoticed economic effect in the U.K.

I would just take the report at face value rather than extrapolating further information from it without proper analysis.

buglawton

Herzlos wrote: »

Are there any other methods available to boost the economy since interest rates are still on the ground? We're looking to have a shrink in consumer spending as debt increases, and I can't think of any way we'll kick start that level of spending without doing something drastic.

I think it's fair to assume that if car prices go up, some non-zero percentage of people will either move down market or hold off purchases for longer.

I'm not even sure if another scrappage deal would help?

An interest rate drop is like an adrenaline shot when it first hits.

But I argue that the natural interest rate always should be 0%.
Any other rate is an attempt to artificially hike the currency value. No-one has ever explained why this should be needed.

There are some weird linked factors:

1. Banks too big to fail (even now). Means no one takes a real risk when lending money. So credit goes too high and it's wrongly argued that the BOE rate should rise to deter borrowing. No, risk should.

2. Salaries legally ratcheted. Employers cannot adjust wages downwards in hard times. They can only make people redundant. So inflation is needed to reduce real wages (like now). And the cure for high inflation is thought to be... higher interest rates.

What other measures could stimulate the economy to Brexit-proof it, now that BOE rate is near zero?

That one thing the politicians that we vote for refuse to grasp: They have to make real changes instead of tinkering.

- Massive simplification of taxes to reduce their friction on peoples decision-making.

- Lots of technocratic decisions at a high level to improve productivity and supply side. Chop up the green belt, BUILD, drop HS2 and use the cash to fibre-up every property in the UK. The list goes on.

Who knows, Brexit might be the stimulus that's needed to wake the govt out of it's catatonic state.

Private_Church

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Also today, the Czech Republic file a lawsuit against the EU:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-eu-guncontrol-czech-idUKKBN1AP1SG?il=0

With the EU vs Poland & logging; the EU vs Poland/Hungary/Slovakia/Czech Republic & migrant quotas and now this it looks like EU relations with it's eastern member countries is not so good.

Following on from this recently the UK adopted the new EU regulations on de-activated firearms that are currently de-activated to the UK standard (which is excellent and makes de-acts beyond re activation) now means that thousands of legally owned de-activated rifles and pistols can't be legally sold until they have been sent away to be further de-activated to the new EU standard (costing the owners £100+) and then the gun must be sent to the London/Birmingham proof house to be inspected and re-certificated to EU standards at an additional cost to the owner of another £120-00 and only after this can the owner sell the de-activated gun.

The EU could have adopted the UK standard which is international respected but no they had to dream up their own scheme which will punish de-activated gun owners including thousands of historical re-enactors....... The sooner the UK is out of this dictatorship the better and then we can go back to the UK system.

On top of that the EU also wish to penalize and punish law abiding gun owners whilst the naughty boys won't give two hoots and will still be able to find illegal firearms across the EU..

Herzlos

Private_Church wrote: »

Following on from this recently the UK adopted the new EU regulations on de-activated firearms that are currently de-activated to the UK standard (which is excellent and makes de-acts beyond re activation) now means that thousands of legally owned de-activated rifles and pistols can't be legally sold until they have been sent away to be further de-activated to the new EU standard (costing the owners £100+) and then the gun must be sent to the London/Birmingham proof house to be inspected and re-certificated to EU standards at an additional cost to the owner of another £120-00 and only after this can the owner sell the de-activated gun.

The EU could have adopted the UK standard which is international respected but no they had to dream up their own scheme which will punish de-activated gun owners including thousands of historical re-enactors....... The sooner the UK is out of this dictatorship the better and then we can go back to the UK system.

On top of that the EU also wish to penalize and punish law abiding gun owners whilst the naughty boys won't give two hoots and will still be able to find illegal firearms across the EU..

What's the difference between the standards? Presumably the EU one is stricter?

gfplux

Thrugelmir wrote: »

If you were to pay personal and Corporate taxes in Luxembourg at the same rate as we do in the UK. Then you too could contribute more to the EU budget.

Personal taxes (income and social) hardly differ with the UK. Source, personal knowledge having paid taxes in both Country's.
I have no personal knowledge of Corporation and other business taxes.

It does not matter to me if want to keep banging the "low tax environment" drum. It can only encourage people and Company's to move to Luxembourg.

cogito

gfplux wrote: »

Personal taxes (income and social) hardly differ with the UK. Source, personal knowledge having paid taxes in both Country's.
I have no personal knowledge of Corporation and other business taxes.

It does not matter to me if want to keep banging the "low tax environment" drum. It can only encourage people and Company's to move to Luxembourg.

Have you not heard that the EU plan to harmonise corporation tax rates throughout the bloc? The Irish in particular are very hacked off about it.