Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

always_sunny

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

2nd largest contributor mate.

It makes a massive difference to the beneficiaries and the remaining net contributors. You're denying reality if you deny this. Tradingeconomics.com is your friend for facts.

I've done a long post on this, the data that those against Brexit refuse to acknowledge. It's all true, it's all public. I'll dig the post out of you want to see it?

The EU is the largest trading block in the world, not the second mate.
It makes a massive difference to be part of it and not outside of it. The UK is denying that reality and deluding that the EU will bend backwards to accommodate the UK. Why?

The UK is not even as big as Japan from an economy perspective, not even as big as China.
The UK economy is not so healthy either.

All FTAs with other non-EU countries will not replace the largest trading block in the world.
You can dig all you want but it won't change the reality that the UK is taking a massive gamble that it may not pay off at all.

TrickyTree83

always_sunny wrote: »

The EU is the largest trading block in the world, not the second mate.
It makes a massive difference to be part of it and not outside of it. The UK is denying that reality and deluding that the EU will bend backwards to accommodate the UK. Why?

The UK is not even as big as Japan from an economy perspective, not even as big as China.
The UK economy is not so healthy either.

All FTAs with other non-EU countries will not replace the largest trading block in the world.
You can dig all you want but it won't change the reality that the UK is taking a massive gamble that it may not pay off at all.

Sorry I thought we were discussing your allegation that the money from the UK isn't relevant.

Is the above quote what you would actually like to discuss?

Although it would be nice to finish discussing your post that I replied to.

Thrugelmir

always_sunny wrote: »

The UK is denying that reality and deluding that the EU will bend backwards to accommodate the UK. Why?

No delusion. Hard Brexit has always been a reality. No one is expecting the political puppet masters in Brussels to concede much ground to the UK. The question is can they withstand the pressures from within.

fatbeetle

always_sunny wrote: »

The EU is the largest trading block in the world, not the second mate.
It makes a massive difference to be part of it and not outside of it. The UK is denying that reality and deluding that the EU will bend backwards to accommodate the UK. Why?

The UK is not even as big as Japan from an economy perspective, not even as big as China.
The UK economy is not so healthy either.

All FTAs with other non-EU countries will not replace the largest trading block in the world.
You can dig all you want but it won't change the reality that the UK is taking a massive gamble that it may not pay off at all.

You must be the least appropriately named poster here, why do you disparage the UK so much?

If we are so insignificant, (you don't give any evidence for this assertion, how odd,) then why did this occur

About 44% of UK exports in goods and services went to other countries in the EU in 2016—£240 billion out of £550 billion total exports.

53% of our imports into the UK came from other countries in the EU in 2016.

Will this stop after Brexit?

gfplux

In the absence of any news very little is filling the gap.
However Britain appears to have conceded there is a financial settlement to be paid.
Now it is just about how much.
http://news.sky.com/story/uk-prepared-to-pay-36bn-for-eu-divorce-bill-reports-10976372
"There are claims the UK is prepared to pay €40bn (£36bn) to settle its divorce bill with Brussels - but a senior government source has denied the reports.

The Sunday Telegraph says it has spoken to "three separate highly placed sources" who confirmed a plan in which the UK would pay €10bn a year for three years after leaving the union in 2019.
The newspaper said this would constitute a down payment on a sum which would total €40bn."

As the bill is in Euros it's a "little" more in pounds than before the referendum.

Now less than 600 days to go,

Enjoy your day everyone, I am off to the beach.

gfplux

setmefree2 wrote: »

Nationwide HPI July


http://www.nationwide.co.uk/~/media/MainSite/documents/about/house-price-index/2017/Jul_2017.pdf

This news from the Luxembourg property market.
https://www.wort.lu/en/luxembourg/residential-property-luxembourg-real-estate-market-at-risk-of-overheating-5984438ca5e74263e13c538b

No mention of Brexit. Luxembourg has a similar problem as the UK. Not enough housing is and has been built.

"The "overheating zone is not far away", he added, before prescribing the remedy: increasing the housing supply. Successive governments, however, have been working to increase housing supply for several years now without achieving any convincing results. "

And

"The average price of the square metre increased by 7.7 per cent in 2016, according to the latest figures of the housing observatory. The trend started in 2012, and prospects for growth – economic and demographic – suggest an increase in property prices in the coming months and years."

And about fixed and variable rates the move is to long fixes. 10 year fix is now the norm for new loans.

"In the event that interest rates are raised, which could be envisaged over the coming months, the monthly payments for households with a variable-rate loan would increase as well.
"Such an increase would be likely to affect the solvency of part of Luxembourg's households," warns the CRS. The banks would suffer next, especially since loans have traditionally been given out with variable rates in Luxembourg.
"Sixty per cent of new credit is at fixed rates, but if you take the stock, 70 per cent remains at variable rates," De Cillia said."

Must rush, off to the beach.

always_sunny

fatbeetle wrote: »

You must be the least appropriately named poster here, why do you disparage the UK so much?

If we are so insignificant, (you don't give any evidence for this assertion, how odd,) then why did this occur

Will this stop after Brexit?

There we go, as soon as someone says it the way it is, the accuse of belittling the UK.
The amount of exports and imports from the UK to the EU are [sort of] known;
- your first line means that just about half (44%) of UK exports go to the EU, so it's a huge chunk for the UK to sort out.
- your second line is about UK imports (53%), as hard it maybe for you to believe but the UK is not the only market. It roughly equates to 10%, a much smaller chunk.

It's not about insignificancy per se but more about that the UK is convinced to be better than any other EU member and deserves to be kept on a pedestal. This belief is not shared, no one else in the EU believes it.

Cameron went before the referendum with demands and he got not much.
The referendum happen and again same response
Art 50 triggered and again same response
Negotiations started and again same response

Try the United States, maybe they will do summersaults for the UK, after all Trump even twitted; "Working on major Trade Deal with the United Kingdom. Could be very big & exciting. JOBS! The E.U. is very protectionist with the U.S. STOP!"

Herzlos

Thrugelmir wrote: »

No delusion. Hard Brexit has always been a reality. No one is expecting the political puppet masters in Brussels to concede much ground to the UK. The question is can they withstand the pressures from within.

Yes. The EU doesn't need the UK anything like as much as some imagine.

always_sunny

Thrugelmir wrote: »

No delusion. Hard Brexit has always been a reality. No one is expecting the political puppet masters in Brussels to concede much ground to the UK. The question is can they withstand the pressures from within.

But isn't the same argument here? "The question is can they" [the UK] "withstand the pressures from within"?

The EU realistically can afford to sit and wait and take 10 years to do a deal.
The UK is in a weaker position, unless a deal is reached, prospects are grim.
This is widely acknowledged (from the UK as well, it's not a myth)

Wages are falling, inflation is rising, folks are not saving, public debt is huge, population is ageing, etc we're not in el dorado here.

How long will the UK population withstand the pressure or do you think they're looking forward to see standard of lifer erode even further? 5 years? 10 years? 15?

vivatifosi

In today's Indie... Spanish Foreign Minister says the country won't seek to recover Gibraltar as part of Brexit talks:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/gibraltar-brexit-spain-deal-uk-territory-eu-talks-sovereign-alfonso-datis-foriegn-minister-a7881201.html