Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

setmefree2

kabayiri wrote: »

There will be EU opportunists who see Brexit as a driving reason for closer integration, not less.

Le Maire (France's economy minister) was on Bloomberg this morning talking about EU tax harmonization.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-07/france-and-germany-plan-crackdown-on-tax-loopholes-used-by-apple

To that effect, Macron is renewing a broader call for the 19 euro-area states to better align their tax systems. Le Maire said that Macron’s pledge to lower corporate taxes to 25 percent by the end of his five-year term should be seen as an opening gambit in this process. He urged countries with lower tax rates to raise them.
France is making “a considerable effort,” Le Maire said. “We’re asking other member states of the euro zone to make a similar effort in the other direction.”

“The objective is a common corporate tax with Germany in 2018 which should be the basis for a harmonization at the level of the 19 member states of the euro zone,” he said. Germany’s corporate tax rate is currently between 30 percent and 33 percent, according to Deloitte.

For this reason alone if there was a second referendum I would vote Leave. Tax harmonization is a bridge too far for me.

Sapphire

kabayiri wrote: »

On the flipside, the EU which we knew will not remain the same either. There will be EU opportunists who see Brexit as a driving reason for closer integration, not less.

And it will be very interesting to see what happens when the populations of continental European countries cotton on to what 'closer integration' will actually mean for their citizens…:cool:

kabayiri

always_sunny wrote: »

...
The EU knows is in a good position to absorb the shock.

It's not the EU response to Brexit. It is individual states.

If we ended with default tariffs for example, our treasury would take in £12bn on current trading volume, and the individual EU states would take in about £5bn.

But that £5bn would not be shared evenly, because we do not have evenly distributed trade across the block.

Now, our treasury would no doubt be under pressure to use this £12bn to cushion the effects.

How the EU cushion the effects is quite tricky. They can't even agree things like migrant/refugeee reallocation quotas. This is because there are big differences still in the EU.

kabayiri

setmefree2 wrote: »

Le Maire (France's economy minister) was on Bloomberg this morning talking about EU tax harmonization.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-07/france-and-germany-plan-crackdown-on-tax-loopholes-used-by-apple

For this reason alone if there was a second referendum I would vote Leave.

It is crystal clear who still dictates EU direction and policy. They managed to buy support from the recent entrant states by, well buying their support using the 1/3 trillion Euro social cohesion fund.

I personally reckon they would let Eire go to the wall if it meant they could sell Brexit as a success to the other EU 26.

setmefree2

Halifax HPI July

ANNUAL HOUSE PRICE GROWTH EASES TO 2.1%

House prices in the last three months (May-July) were 0.2% lower than in the previous three months (February-April).

This was the fourth successive quarterly fall; the first time this has happened since November 2012.

Prices in the three months to July were 2.1% higher than in the same three months a year earlier. This was lower than in June (2.6%) and is the lowest annual rate since April 2013 (2.0%). The annual rate has fallen from a peak of 10.0% in March 2016.

House prices rose by 0.4% between June and July, partially offsetting the 0.9% decline recorded between May and June

https://static.halifax.co.uk/assets/pdf/mortgages/pdf/July-2017-Halifax-House-Price-Index.pdf

setmefree2

Nationwide HPI July

House price growth broadly stable in July

•Annual house price growth at 2.9%, little changed from June
•Modest 0.3% increase month - on month

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/~/media/MainSite/documents/about/house-price-index/2017/Jul_2017.pdf

setmefree2

From the fella who gave young people Student Loans of £40 to £50k

Vince Cable: Young 'shafted' over Brexit

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40842017

He didn't even have the decency to blush......

Herzlos

Is he wrong?

Conrad

always_sunny wrote: »

The EU knows is in a good position to absorb the shock.

You're talking about a continent where Spain & others failed to even pay their teachers and police for months at a time after 2010.


You make the place sound so superior, but can you imagine if the UK had been unable to pay it's public servants, you would be spitting feathers.

Conrad

setmefree2 wrote: »

From the fella who gave young people Student Loans of £40 to £50k

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40842017

He didn't even have the decency to blush......

Most influential book I've read is Futurebabble which tracks thousands of predictions made by talking head politicians and punditry down the decades where 99% of their big ticket predictions turned out wrong.


He's just another flat earther that will claim the 'UK was obviously always likely to have pulled through well' when the time comes for him to eat humble pie.