Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

gfplux

kabayiri wrote: »

You're one of the "little guys". There can't be that many Brits in Luxembourg who religiously tune in to every piece of negative Brexit news.

We here in the UK will live with the main consequences. You won't particularly.

Actually Kabayiri that is where you are wrong.
People who's future and that of their family are deeply and nearly immediately effected by Brexit are hungry for news of Brexit. The time horizon is only 20 months but much less if those fears are to be resolved.
There are 3.2 million EU27 citizens living in the UK and over 1 million UK citizens living in the EU27. The majority are very personally concerned and soak up news good or bad about Brexit and the negotiations official and unofficial.
The majority of Brexiters and remainers think about Brexit in an abstract way. There are implications for Jobs, wages, prices and travel but all of those things are not threatening in the near future their way of life.
You and others dismiss our and my concerns. So be it. Brexit has brought the worse out of some people and we all have to live the the consequences of that.

gfplux

Curtesy of the EU they have published a comparison of the two positions on Citizens rights.
It's called "Joint technical note on EU-UK positions on citizens' rights after second round of negotiations"

I assume the British Government will be publishing it shortly but if you can't wait you will find it here.

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/publications/joint-technical-note-eu-uk-positions-citizens-rights-after-second-round-negotiations-0_en

prosaver

gfplux wrote: »

Just back from the beach and now I have watched the video.
I am sure a remainer and a brexiter will probably think differently after watching it.
Firstly it's a Guardian journalist who is probably a remainer and a socialist. The people interviewed will be self selection and they probably shot two hours to edit it down to 9 minutes.
Having said all that there is a real issue that has to be addressed by the Government and I a remainer hear nothing concrete as to how this issue will be tackled.
The longer uncertainty goes on workers from the EU27 Will be making their own decisions and that will not be good for British industry.

just getting like Mexico

kabayiri

gfplux wrote: »

...
You and others dismiss our and my concerns. So be it. Brexit has brought the worse out of some people and we all have to live the the consequences of that.

I merely think your concerns will be different. Just as mine would be different from the good people of Burnley, or the Islington set who might brush shoulders with Corbyn.

What I'm not sure about is how you feel impacted. You don't intend to return to UK permanently in 2019...or do you?

Is it a Brit backlash you worry about on the continent?

kabayiri

gfplux wrote: »

...
I am sure a remainer and a brexiter will probably think differently after watching it.
Firstly it's a Guardian journalist who is probably a remainer and a socialist. The people interviewed will be self selection and they probably shot two hours to edit it down to 9 minutes.
...

He is a remainer, yes. I thought it was a fairly sympathetic piece in relation to migrants and work.

But to me, it didn't seem to be any major advancement to UK working. Perhaps, it was an effective sticking plaster over resource issues.

Take the factory making those cardboard display units for supermarkets. The boss clearly said : 'one day I may need 5 workers, the next 50'.

I've spent enough time working with high level planning systems to know that this isn't a planned operation at all. It's completely reactive.

He didn't say he couldn't get 50, clearly he can. So, on the days he just needs 5, then what do the other 45 do?

My background would tell me this operation is ripe for more machine automation, but I realize that's not really a humanist response.

So...do you think we should carry excess labour capacity in the unskilled area to cover peaks? Is this the ultimate conclusion of the Gig economy?

surfer9

So in around 1987 my parents bought a 3 bedroom family house for themselves and their 2 children....

It cost £65k, they had an income of £10,000 per annum.

Today that house is worth £500,000.....I am the same age now as my parents were when they bought it back in 1987......

I have a hefty deposit.....I just don't have the £95,000 a year salary yet to afford this family home.

House prices are ridiculous.

£315,000+ for a 2 bed house around where I live means you need say a £60,000 income and a £45,000 deposit.

How are average families able to afford these prices?, that's for a 2 bed, most people end up having at least 2 children. You'd have to turn the cupboard under the stairs into a 3rd bedroom.

I think I need to start my own Gigolo service, it's the only way to afford a property these days. That or invest in some random stock......

GreatApe

surfer9 wrote: »

So in around 1987 my parents bought a 3 bedroom family house for themselves and their 2 children....

It cost £65k, they had an income of £10,000 per annum.

Today that house is worth £500,000.....I am the same age now as my parents were when they bought it back in 1987......

I have a hefty deposit.....I just don't have the £95,000 a year salary yet to afford this family home.

House prices are ridiculous.

£315,000+ for a 2 bed house around where I live means you need say a £60,000 income and a £45,000 deposit.

How are average families able to afford these prices?, that's for a 2 bed, most people end up having at least 2 children. You'd have to turn the cupboard under the stairs into a 3rd bedroom.

I think I need to start my own Gigolo service, it's the only way to afford a property these days. That or invest in some random stock......

Very few people live in rentals for any length of time, the vast majority end up as owners or in social homes with cheap (or free) rents.

While I am sure we would all like a bigger house in a better location, housing isn't actually a problem for most households.

Now of course we are a nation of 65 million people so even if its a problem for just 1% of the nation they will be able to form collectives and convince themselves that its a problem for nearly everyone when it really isnt

ThinkingOutLoud_2

GreatApe wrote: »

Very few people live in rentals for any length of time, the vast majority end up as owners or in social homes with cheap (or free) rents.

While I am sure we would all like a bigger house in a better location, housing isn't actually a problem for most households.

Now of course we are a nation of 65 million people so even if its a problem for just 1% of the nation they will be able to form collectives and convince themselves that its a problem for nearly everyone when it really isnt

Got any facts to back up those assertions?

gfplux

prosaver wrote: »

just getting like Mexico

Yes, the next step after March 2019 will be deporting those without the correct papers. Can you imagine a Banker in the City being asked for their ID.
Seriously tho the little people like me (+/-4.2 million of us) are worried about the uncertainty after March 2019. The British border and the EU27 border will look different and intimidating perhaps. Any "jobsworth" could make life difficult. As we see in the USA they don't have to give a reason for refusal of entry.

gfplux

kabayiri wrote: »

I merely think your concerns will be different. Just as mine would be different from the good people of Burnley, or the Islington set who might brush shoulders with Corbyn.

What I'm not sure about is how you feel impacted. You don't intend to return to UK permanently in 2019...or do you?

Is it a Brit backlash you worry about on the continent?

What do I worry about after March 2019?

When you are used to travelling in and out of the Schengen Zone with ease in a family group with different EU passports the prospect of different lines for different passports is intimidating.
That any jobsworth (that's being unfair as the rules might be difficult to interpret) can stop that movement and leave someone stranded outside of their country of residence.
Will those things happen, who knows but they might.

A British backlash, no, at the beginning there was disbelieve and a little amusement. Now and in the future Brexit will or already has drop from the public eye. Any problems are those that happen to "other people" just as we hear of someone being turned back at the American Border.

I do fear a continuing and deepening period of austerity for Britain.

My concerns are different to those of Burnley, Islington or Siria but they are still concerns. That have been brushed aside by some on this thread.

I am not looking for sympathy for the 4.2 million people who are in a similar position (I appear to be the only one on this thread) but some understanding.