Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

gfplux

kabayiri wrote: »

He is a remainer, yes. I thought it was a fairly sympathetic piece in relation to migrants and work.

But to me, it didn't seem to be any major advancement to UK working. Perhaps, it was an effective sticking plaster over resource issues.

Take the factory making those cardboard display units for supermarkets. The boss clearly said : 'one day I may need 5 workers, the next 50'.

I've spent enough time working with high level planning systems to know that this isn't a planned operation at all. It's completely reactive.

He didn't say he couldn't get 50, clearly he can. So, on the days he just needs 5, then what do the other 45 do?

My background would tell me this operation is ripe for more machine automation, but I realize that's not really a humanist response.

So...do you think we should carry excess labour capacity in the unskilled area to cover peaks? Is this the ultimate conclusion of the Gig economy?

That's a difficult question.
However just looking at the impact of immigrant labour. This influx of seasonal and non seasonal hard working immigrants could be said to hold back modernisation and mechanisation. In the case of the display maker has held back the display of product at retail. While he can call on workers at a moments notice he stays in business. While he stays in business retailers don't have to change.
The gig economy is fine if your two jobs are highly paid and you are highly skilled.
The availability on tap of unskilled, low paid workers in the gig economy is holding back progress. Is that good or bad. Perhaps we are about to find out.
However just as the raspberry grower in the UK having employed Polish workers for 20 years is now buying land in Poland one of the consequences may not be modernisation but the export of the low skilled jobs along with the low paid hard working seasonal workers.
I have seen some low tech improvements in strawberry picking. A tractor with a platform either side for 8 workers lying down and picking as the tractor moves slowly forward. This part solution made possible by the ingredient of those cheap seasonal workers.
This is a fascinating and intriguing consequence of Brexit but there will be much damage amongs the little people.

This video gives you the idea.
https://youtu.be/Tz1R_xDZcw8

vivatifosi

gfplux wrote: »

What do I worry about after March 2019?

When you are used to travelling in and out of the Schengen Zone with ease in a family group with different EU passports the prospect of different lines for different passports is intimidating.
That any jobsworth (that's being unfair as the rules might be difficult to interpret) can stop that movement and leave someone stranded outside of their country of residence.
Will those things happen, who knows but they might.

A British backlash, no, at the beginning there was disbelieve and a little amusement. Now and in the future Brexit will or already has drop from the public eye. Any problems are those that happen to "other people" just as we hear of someone being turned back at the American Border.

I do fear a continuing and deepening period of austerity for Britain.

My concerns are different to those of Burnley, Islington or Siria but they are still concerns. That have been brushed aside by some on this thread.

I am not looking for sympathy for the 4.2 million people who are in a similar position (I appear to be the only one on this thread) but some understanding.

What is at the root of your concern re travel?

I don't think UK border officials will automatically become more officious as in America... travel to Canada, or Australia or a whole host of other countries with similar structures to us and they are pleasant and do their job efficiently without throwing their weight around.

Personally I think the issue is a bigger one for Brits in the EU than vice versa. According to the doc on citizens rights that you posted, citizens from the EU can live anywhere in the UK, but the EU plan is to only allow the UK citizens a right to reside in the country that they have moved to. An interesting take on the red line of FOM I think.

The UK won't be to the EU like a Mexico to the USA. Our standard of living is broadly the same, whereas Mexico is significantly poorer.

always_sunny

vivatifosi wrote: »

What is at the root of your concern re travel?

I don't think UK border officials will automatically become more officious as in America... travel to Canada, or Australia or a whole host of other countries with similar structures to us and they are pleasant and do their job efficiently without throwing their weight around.

Personally I think the issue is a bigger one for Brits in the EU than vice versa. According to the doc on citizens rights that you posted, citizens from the EU can live anywhere in the UK, but the EU plan is to only allow the UK citizens a right to reside in the country that they have moved to. An interesting take on the red line of FOM I think.

The UK won't be to the EU like a Mexico to the USA. Our standard of living is broadly the same, whereas Mexico is significantly poorer.

The main change might be getting used to it. i.e. from March 2019, Britons may have to use the other queue when entering Schengen (as EU national will when landing in the UK).

If it's true that "Criminal records haunt a third of Britain's men", a stag do in Prague or a summer holiday in Magaluf may not be so easy in the future.
(Again, EU nationals in similar conditions will be impacted, realistically it's not only EU nationals having criminal records).

The UK won't be like Mexico in comparison to the USA/EU but it will see change and if a big chunk of the population doesn't support this change it'll be difficult.
Standard of living can deteriorate fairly quickly and today we do not know with certainty if the future will be a smooth sailing or a choppy ride.

vivatifosi

If the queues at passport control in say Spain become unduly long, then Spain will need to decide whether or not to put more staff into border control or risk British holidaymakers going elsewhere. Ditto if queues at British passport control get long we don't want to deter people coming here for business or pleasure.

With APIS data and machine readable passports these things should be easier anyway.

I don't doubt that there will be big issues to overcome, the Irish border being a huge one, but cutting queues is an easier one as it is a resource rather than political issue.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

I see the deliberate misinterpretation of posts continues by certain supposed contributors.

(Text removed by MSE Forum Team)

More bad news then for you pro-EU subscribers:

Brexit Is Already Hurting The German Economy, Warns Country’s Top Business Group"

DIHK spokesperson Thomas Renner told HuffPost UK: “Brexit will damage the German economy as a whole, despite some single locations or companies who might benefit from shifting jobs and investment from the UK or of a weaker British Pound.

“Even if Brexit will hit the British economy more, in the end it is a lose-lose situation.

“Negative consequences are already there, even if Brexit negotiations have just begun.

“Brexit already has impacts on the UK trade with Germany: in 2016 exports to the UK decreased by 3%.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/brexit-trade-germany-italy_uk_597ce7aae4b02a8434b6cdae?utm_hp_ref=uk

A_Medium_Size_Jock

ilovehouses wrote: »

You don't think migration into the EU is the UK's problem post-brexit. It's very clear - no one needs to check post x, y or z. You're wrong and I suspect, to your annoyance, the UK will be working with our EU partners to find a resolution.

As for the idea that anything occurring in the EU will be an EU problem and not a UK problem is naivety in the extreme.

(Text removed by MSE Forum Team)

Any illegal migrants can be immediately returned to the EU; that has been made clear only this week with an EU ruling - or did you miss that?
What a surprise that would be.


Note that I did not say "anything occurring in the EU will be an EU problem and not a UK problem" I said:

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Again simply, what occurs in the EU post-Brexit will generally be an EU problem and not a UK one. As we were discussing Italian migration there is or indeed will be then no UK problem.

... so why lie?

Naivety my wotsit; you appear deluded - even those within the EU refuse to accept the "problem" of migration of being entirely an EU problem, instead being country-specific.
Again: "The problem is a European one, but it is above all an Italian one; roughly 75 percent of the migrants arriving in Europe land in Italy."

No doubt now you will again attempt deflection - but for example South American migration into the USA would not be a UK problem, would it?
Or as another example the current impending crises in Venezuela - is that a UK problem?
Nearer to home, the EU trying legal attempts to ban Polish logging; is that a UK problem too?

Perhaps it is time you ceased the incessant unfounded bickering and concentrated upon debate rather than belligerence, to the undoubted benefit of this thread at least.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

(Text removed by MSE Forum Team)

ilovehouses wrote: »

Wild guess here but your real name isn't Mr Medium Sized Jock? And that avatar isn't a selfie?
Ah yes because it would be so sensible to use your given name - and provide a photo to boot, wouldn't it?
:rotfl:
P.S. - I am not the one using deliberate deceit and belligerence using such anonymity.

Spot on. It's a lose lose.

That's it, totally ignore the fact that some in Germany are already saying they are suffering. Pretend it's not been said.
Because you ignore it does not make it go away.
_______________________________________________

And now this:

The Hungarian government repeatedly ignored international legal orders to improve conditions for asylum seekers in a controversial border zone camp, according to a human rights group and an asylum seeker held inside the camp.

http://www.politico.eu/article/hungary-refugee-camp-conditions-food-shelter-human-rights-court-orders-ignored/

A_Medium_Size_Jock

"German private sector growth slows more than expected in July

"

"we've had two (successive) months of slowing growth. If we get a third one it begins to look like we are entering a cycle of slowdown".

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-germany-economy-pmi-idUKKBN1A90OI

always_sunny

vivatifosi wrote: »

If the queues at passport control in say Spain become unduly long, then Spain will need to decide whether or not to put more staff into border control or risk British holidaymakers going elsewhere. Ditto if queues at British passport control get long we don't want to deter people coming here for business or pleasure.

With APIS data and machine readable passports these things should be easier anyway.

I don't doubt that there will be big issues to overcome, the Irish border being a huge one, but cutting queues is an easier one as it is a resource rather than political issue.

I wonder where this belief comes from that the world must do something or risk the "British' whatever.
Are the Americans treating the British differently compared to the French or Japanese?

If queue become unduly long for British, they will wait in the queue like other non-EU member nationals. If a visa system is established for Schengen, the British and other non-EU member nationals will need to use it.

Americans cannot use biometric passport to enter the EU, why would the British be allowed?
Would you expect French nationals to enter the UK using biometric queues together with the British?

Britain proximity to the continent doesn't override the reality that post March 2019 the UK could be a 3rd country like Turkey, Russia, Morocco, etc.

kabayiri

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

...
More bad news then for you pro-EU subscribers:
"
Brexit Is Already Hurting The German Economy, Warns Country’s Top Business Group"
...

Our next car is unlikely to be a £31K BMW, like the last one we bought.

This isn't so much Brexit related, although it doesn't help.

Korean cars have a 10% tariff slapped on them currently. Over in Canada the replacement for the Volvo, a better specced Kia, was over 20,000 bucks cheaper. Why can't the same apply here?

If we buy more cars from the East, the pricing bends even more in the consumer's favour.