Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

kabayiri

ilovehouses wrote: »

....
There's also the reality that tariffs can be seen as protecting domestic production - they're also heavily influenced by lobbying.
...

Hasn't worked has it.

EU share of world trade has consistently gone down since we have been members.

Anyway, I thought you were all fans of this globalization project, or is it only when it suits?

vivatifosi

always_sunny wrote: »

I wonder where this belief comes from that the world must do something or risk the "British' whatever.
Are the Americans treating the British differently compared to the French or Japanese?

If queue become unduly long for British, they will wait in the queue like other non-EU member nationals. If a visa system is established for Schengen, the British and other non-EU member nationals will need to use it.

Americans cannot use biometric passport to enter the EU, why would the British be allowed?
Would you expect French nationals to enter the UK using biometric queues together with the British?

Britain proximity to the continent doesn't override the reality that post March 2019 the UK could be a 3rd country like Turkey, Russia, Morocco, etc.

I have used biometric passport reader for my last three visits to the USA and they have cut queues. Hence my point that it is a resource issue. I don't know why Americans can't do the same here,but would imagine it's a matter of time. There is still a human step in the USA, but it is significantly less.

The UK is one of the wealthiest countries in the world, whether on a per capita or country basis. it isn't about to become a third country.

ETA... I'm not suggesting that the UKs residents should be treated the same as EU nationals if we aren't. However as by far the biggest nation visiting Spain - 17m + visitors out of a total of c68m, then there will be huge queues at the border if Spain doesn't resource accordingly.

Thrugelmir

ilovehouses wrote: »

If one thinks free trade leads to prosperity and peace then tariffs are a hindrance to this. I'd like to see a progression to reduced/ removed trades.

Tariff free trade works until it's your job that's impacted. Trump was elected in part because globalisation as it stands is destroying peoples opportunity to earn a good wage.

kabayiri

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Tariff free trade works until it's your job that's impacted. Trump was elected in part because globalisation as it stands is destroying peoples opportunity to earn a good wage.

Do you honestly think the EU or UK can stop it though?

Amazon, for example, will employ people to ship the books from it's warehouses to the customer...

...but they'd rather we all have e-readers, and dispense with the employees and make more money.

How does the EU or UK stop this?

I'm sure the EU is quite defensive when it comes to the automobile industry.

But cars are getting more modular by the year. Shared platforms reduce costs amongst manufacturers, but they also help to outsource bigger chunks of the manufacture to the cheapest places.

Do we really think Juncker or Tusk have a plan to stop Apple/Tesla/Google bringing in a mass produced "transportation vessel" from cheapy-cheapy-land? (wherever it happens to be)

Trump might win brownie points for bringing back some dirty coal jobs, but I'm not sure he understands the scale of the task ahead of him.

kabayiri

ilovehouses wrote: »

Populists always try and sell the idea that globalisation is making foreigners richer and locals poorer. If trade is mutually beneficial then it's a nonsense.
...

That would work if we lived in a stateless / timeless world, but we don't.

Okay, an example you can shoot down.

Mid 90s, I pay about £1500 for a laptop with modest spec.

This Xmas, I buy a laptop as a pressie with modest spec for £300 ish.

Globalization has meant that the £1500+ I would have had to spend becomes £300. The spare £1200 I can go and spend on the gas bill etc.

I'm suddenly richer aren't I?

But then, I look at the energy costs rising year on year as we compete with China for oil etc. I look at Generation Y coming through working in call centres for £16K+.

Is it a sleight of hand then? I really don't know.

Ok, Off topic over, you can get back to arguing on what our chancellor has been saying behind May's back

always_sunny

vivatifosi wrote: »

I have used biometric passport reader for my last three visits to the USA and they have cut queues. Hence my point that it is a resource issue. I don't know why Americans can't do the same here,but would imagine it's a matter of time. There is still a human step in the USA, but it is significantly less.

The UK is one of the wealthiest countries in the world, whether on a per capita or country basis. it isn't about to become a third country.

ETA... I'm not suggesting that the UKs residents should be treated the same as EU nationals if we aren't. However as by far the biggest nation visiting Spain - 17m + visitors out of a total of c68m, then there will be huge queues at the border if Spain doesn't resource accordingly.

The USA has that system for VWP passport holders, the EU does not.
When and if such provisions are established, the UK, together with the rest of non-EU will use it.

17M go to Spain from the UK, but so do 11M of French, 11M of Germans, etc.
When a similar argument of how the UK managed before EU migration, the answer is the same, Spain will manage the sam as it did before Britons started flooding their country.
With a weaker pound, will British flock in the same quantity? Will they spend the same? etc.

The UK has slipped as one of the wealthiest country down the rank, money is not necessarily the key to every door and that is [I am afraid] the UK will learn that the hard way.

Thrugelmir

ilovehouses wrote: »

Populists always try and sell the idea that globalisation is making foreigners richer and locals poorer. If trade is mutually beneficial then it's a nonsense.

Globalisation is driven by maximising profit not trade.

Thrugelmir

ilovehouses wrote: »

Globalisation drives competition and brings costs down. You can buy from the most efficient and best located supplier for your goods.

Agree totally. In order to sell goods though people need to earn money to buy them. Trade is a zero sum game.

I'd recommend reading "How an Economy Grows and Why it Crashes" by Schiff and Schiff.

The book allegorically explores such topics as inflation, deficit spending, central banking, international trade, and the housing bubble and credit collapse of 2008.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Well Indians still want to buy prime London, UK property - and say Brexit will not affect that:

Dismissing any major Brexit impact on the London property market, Lodha revealed considerable Indian buyer interest in the luxury flats.

"Indians constitute about 15-20 per cent of the buyers. It's a very diverse audience but the common theme has very strong roots in London," said Lodha.

"We are doing well on sales. And, this is in a very difficult external environment in the aftermath of the Brexit referendum last year," he said.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/services/property-/-cstruction/lodha-group-dismisses-brexits-impact-on-londons-property-market/articleshow/59830753.cms

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Diageo too says that they will take Brexit in their stride:

“The key thing we need to do is keep Scotch whisky healthy for the export markets around the world, and I’d say both the Scottish and the UK government understand very clearly,” he said.
“Our trade within the European Union (EU) will be tariff-free because of the World Trade Organisation arrangements. We’re working with the government to ensure other Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) where Scotch whisky benefits from the EU remain in place, like with Korea or South Africa. We want to ensure over time that some of the new FTAs give us a better arrangement.”

https://www.thespiritsbusiness.com/2017/07/we-take-brexit-in-our-stride-says-diageo-ceo/