Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

gfplux

Politico appear to be the only ones to carry the story of Quotas.
http://www.politico.eu/article/brussels-to-break-vow-not-to-talk-trade-in-brexit-talks/?utm_content=buffer1cdf9&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Apparently no mention on the Sunday Political programmes.
As this is or could be considered a small win for Britain it is a shame that British media are not covering it.

Tromking

cogito wrote: »

As soon as Macron embarks on his program, the French will be rioting in the streets protesting against the very things they voted for.

Indeed.
I don't know how true it is, but I heard a 'talking head' yesterday say that a possible barrier to Marcon's City 'land grab' is that to take home 1 million in France you need to earn 6 million. Bearing in mind that France also likes to spend considerably more % of GDP on public spending. I'm not sure the French people are anywhere near that sort of political sea change.

cogito

Tromking wrote: »

Indeed.
I don't know how true it is, but I heard a 'talking head' yesterday say that a possible barrier to Marcon's City 'land grab' is that to take home 1 million in France you need to earn 6 million. Bearing in mind that France also likes to spend considerably more % of GDP on public spending. I'm not sure the French people are anywhere near that sort of political sea change.

I agree. I suspect that Frech voters were voting against other candidates than for Macron.

Herzlos

cogito wrote: »

I agree. I suspect that Frech voters were voting against other candidates than for Macron.

Just like voters anywhere else in the world?

mayonnaise

cogito wrote: »

I agree. I suspect that Frech voters were voting against other candidates than for Macron.

The French had a choice between a Pro-Europe democrat and an anti-Europe fascist.
They chose the former, which kinda fits in with growing Pro-Europe sentiment in France.
https://www.euractiv.com/section/elections/news/pro-european-feeling-on-the-rise-in-france/

cogito

mayonnaise wrote: »

The French had a choice between a Pro-Europe democrat and an anti-Europe fascist.
They chose the former, which kinda fits in with growing Pro-Europe sentiment in France.
https://www.euractiv.com/section/elections/news/pro-european-feeling-on-the-rise-in-france/

There were eleven candidates for president.

Why would the French not like the EU? They make paltry contributions to the budget and receive 25 % of CAP payments.

Thrugelmir

cogito wrote: »

I agree. I suspect that Frech voters were voting against other candidates than for Macron.

Didn't many French voters simply abstain.

The French are more likely to take to the streets, strike and riot, or blockade Channel ports. When they don't like something.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Didn't many French voters simply abstain.

The French are more likely to take to the streets, strike and riot, or blockade Channel ports. When they don't like something.

Quite so.
An abstention rate of 58% led to a record low turnout of French voters.
As such it should not be thought that support for Macron is as high as media suggests.

setmefree2

EU and Britain to present post-Brexit plan on WTO membership

GENEVA (Reuters) - The European Union and Britain plan to put forward a joint proposal for reform of the terms of their World Trade Organization (WTO) membership in September or October, an EU source said on Monday, as London negotiates to leave the EU.
The two sides are also discussing sharing liabilities from trade disputes including WTO litigation over Airbus subsidies in a long-running case with the United States, the EU source said.
“Currently we are in talks with the United Kingdom to come to a joint approach on the matter, on all the aspects of the divorce, with regard to the WTO. And I would think that, come the month of September/October, we will be able to come jointly to the rest of the (WTO) membership,” the EU source said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
The joint approach would address aspects of the EU's WTO membership terms, known as its WTO "schedules", that are not easily split between Britain and the other 27 EU members: agricultural tariff quotas, agricultural subsidies and commitments on services trade.
“The plan is (that) we would explain together how we would see the disentanglement of the United Kingdom from the EU commitments and schedules,” the source said.
The joint approach would also deal with Britain's wish to join the WTO's Government Procurement Agreement, which liberalises access to procurement markets between signatories. The EU is a member of the agreement but Britain is not.
Asked how important it was to finalise revision of the WTO terms of membership before the EU and Britain formally divorce, the source said: “I have the impression that the United Kingdom believes that is important.”
Britain's Brexit minister, David Davis, pledged to "get down to work" as he kicked off a first full round of negotiations in Brussels on Monday but, a year after Britons voted to leave the EU, their government seemed at war with itself over the divorce terms.
Britain also faces a multi-billion euro bill as it leaves the EU, to cover ongoing commitments.
One of those costs may be a provision to cover damages that could be awarded to the United States in the world's largest trade dispute, the 13-year-old battle over allegedly illegal subsidies to plane giants Airbus and Seattle-based Boeing .
"I think that is also part of the discussion," the EU source said, without giving any details. "I'm not sure that will be clarified already. I think we're now working first and foremost on schedules."

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-wto-idUKKBN1A21AB?il=0

See also

'Listen - you might learn something!' Duncan Smith snaps at German host in huge Brexit row



http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/829518/Brexit-news-Iain-Duncan-Smith-German-TV-fiery-row-EU-Michel-Barnier-David-Davis-video

setmefree2

Brussels to break vow not to talk trade in Brexit talks

Officials will discuss import quotas on Brexit negotiation sidelines.

But Barnier plans to raise the thorny issue of EU import quotas on the sidelines of this week’s negotiations, according to half a dozen officials briefed on the talks. Although not the broader trade discussion on a future relationship that the U.K. has pushed for, talks on quotas would move negotiations past the immediate practicalities of Britain’s exit from the bloc and start to imagine global trade post-Brexit.

Despite the EU’s insistence that the bill and citizens’ rights needed to be tackled first, the EU27 negotiators plan to stray into trade technicalities early in the process, officials said.
Barnier’s team of technocrats is mulling options for how to adjust the amounts of imports it allows into the EU from abroad once Britain leaves the bloc, these people added.
Under WTO rules, the EU has struck 124 deals, outlining the quantity of products such as chicken, butter and beef it allows its trading partners to export every year.
Such import quotas, known in technical jargon as tariff rate quotas, specify certain quantities of this produce that can enter the EU from abroad with lower duties. Quotas are divided up and allotted to importers depending on where the demand is within the EU.
For instance, New Zealand is allowed to export up to 230,000 tons of sheep and goat meat a year to the EU but the U.K. eats up around 40 percent of that amount. With Britain set to leave the bloc by 2019, officials have less than two years to iron out a new quota regime.
On Thursday, Sabine Weyand, deputy chief negotiator in the European Commission’s Brexit task force, briefed dozens of senior EU diplomats on three possible solutions, according to five sources, all of whom were present in the room

The first option would be to maintain the status quo by leaving all import quotas the same — an option Brussels does not favor as it would mean spreading Britain’s share of each quota among the remaining 27 members.
The second option foresees Britain negotiating to take over a portion of the EU quota but only by changing very sensitive products such as beef and butter, a solution diplomats described as complicated to achieve. “The problem is finding an agreement on how to choose sensitive product lines and which ones you designate as sensitive,” said an official who took part in the meeting.
The final option, preferred by Brussels, is to lower the EU quota and have Britain add a new quota itself.
This third option would aggravate London, where the government is keen to forge new trade deals with international partners after it has left the EU and does not want to be constrained by agreeing quotas before those negotiations begin.


“It’s a question of whether the Brits want to cooperate or if they want to go their own way,” said a diplomatic official at Thursday’s meeting.

In Geneva, the EU’s trading partners are eagerly waiting to see how Brussels tackles the issue since there is no precedent for a WTO member leaving an economic union while inside the organization.
The issue of quotas is expected to be particularly difficult as it might take years for the U.K.’s WTO position to become clear, especially since all other member countries, including all exporters, would have to agree.
“It’s not impossible it’s just a lot of hard work,” said Peter Ungphakorn, a former WTO official, “Whether or not it’s a headache depends on how cooperative people are.”

http://www.politico.eu/article/brussels-to-break-vow-not-to-talk-trade-in-brexit-talks/