The election that might make a difference and is too close to call thread - France

gfplux

France is very similar to Britain in that they both believe they carry more weight in the world than they really do. However that belief for both Country's has done them little harm despite both having significant internal issues.

Thrugelmir

gfplux wrote: »

France is very similar to Britain in that they both believe they carry more weight in the world than they really do. However that belief for both Country's has done them little harm despite both having significant internal issues.

Germany requires a strong France to maintain the axis. A divided France may well in the longer term prove problematic for relations.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Now there are protests against both presidential candidates:

Teenagers in Rennes and other French cities have held rallies or blocked schools in a protest against both presidential candidates.
In a campaign tagged "We deserve better", about 1,000 people came out in the western city to chant "neither Le Pen nor Macron".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39736615

This as support for Macron appears to be slipping slightly.

WengerIn

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Now there are protests against both presidential candidates:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39736615

This as support for Macron appears to be slipping slightly.

Slipping slightly isn't enough for Le Pen in the time she has. She has 9 days to make up 20 points in the polls.

As for the protests this is France, it's what they do! De Gaulle got chased out of Paris by half a million people, this pair got lucky.

michaels

WengerIn wrote: »

Slipping slightly isn't enough for Le Pen in the time she has. She has 9 days to make up 20 points in the polls.

As for the protests this is France, it's what they do! De Gaulle got chased out of Paris by half a million people, this pair got lucky.

There is a scenario where one side is far ahead so their voters don't bother to turn out and they end up losing but that doesn't seem to be the case here - or rather the 'so far ahead' is enough that even a large differential turnout would not sway the result.

Problem with it being A N Other vs the FN is that it is not really a good reflection of what the French feel about the EU as the toxicness of the FN means that whoever their candidate stood against would win.

Thrugelmir

michaels wrote: »

Problem with it being A N Other vs the FN is that it is not really a good reflection of what the French feel about the EU as the toxicness of the FN means that whoever their candidate stood against would win.

Trouble is you end up with a powerless President. Who is unable to implement the policies he stood for. Making any sort of meaningful change impossible.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

The viewpoint of French abstainers:

“I do not want to be an accomplice to the disaster that's going to happen anyway, therefore I abstain,” Marylène Martinot told The Local.
Yannick Geffroy, another M!lenchon voter who can’t abide “ultra-liberal" Macron or “fascist” Le Pen said: “Voting would legitimate the candidate who gets elected, so I can only choose militant abstention”.

https://www.thelocal.fr/20170428/french-election-le-pen-macron-the-defiant-abstainers-i-wont-be-an-accomplice-to-this-disaster


I said earlier in the thread that sadly this has become a lose/lose choice for France.

WengerIn

michaels wrote: »

There is a scenario where one side is far ahead so their voters don't bother to turn out and they end up losing but that doesn't seem to be the case here - or rather the 'so far ahead' is enough that even a large differential turnout would not sway the result.

Problem with it being A N Other vs the FN is that it is not really a good reflection of what the French feel about the EU as the toxicness of the FN means that whoever their candidate stood against would win.

I'd be interested to know what the 'don't know' numbers are in the opinion polls as I've been unable to find them. I heard before the first round they were really high, a third of voters.

michaels

The wikipedia page tends to list 'not intending to vote' especially for the second round.

gfplux

Tonight, Wednesday, Macron and Le Pen head to head debate on TV. Starting in five minutes.