The election that might make a difference and is too close to call thread - France

michaels

And yet they are happy to give all that up and have their laws determined by the will of the european people (rather diffusely) rather than their own leaders. If the ECHR decide that the current burka ban violates human rights there is no power held by the french to overturn it.

gfplux

michaels wrote: »

If I were French and wanted France to remain a country rather than become a region of the European State then what choice would I have - vote for LePen which is basically ukip but worse or accept the end of France as a country. Glad I don't have to make that choice.

French politics is much more pragmatic than you think.
While for some a vote for Macron in the 2nd round will be a stretch it is a Vote AGAINST Le Pen.
If Macron wins he will form a coalition with the Centre left and Centre right.
FRANCE will remain what it is today a powerful member of the EU.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

gfplux wrote: »

French politics is much more pragmatic than you think.
While for some a vote for Macron in the 2nd round will be a stretch it is a Vote AGAINST Le Pen.
If Macron wins he will form a coalition with the Centre left and Centre right.
FRANCE will remain what it is today a powerful member of the EU.

Pragmatic?
Hhmm, I think perhaps "laissez faire" would be more apt since the French seem to have - as Michaels suggests - voted their country into a Trump vs Clinton-type mess.

Sadly for the French it really does appear to be a "lose/lose" choice.
Le Pen has little real chance of winning and Macron looks like being ineffective as far as rejuvenating the French economy is concerned.
Being so pro-EU, IYSWIM.

How long then will France remain a "powerful member of the EU" if unemployment continues above 10% and growth languishes around the 1% mark?
Especially if EU contributions must increase?

economic

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Pragmatic?
Hhmm, I think perhaps "laissez faire" would be more apt since the French seem to have - as Michaels suggests - voted their country into a Trump vs Clinton-type mess.

Sadly for the French it really does appear to be a "lose/lose" choice.
Le Pen has little real chance of winning and Macron looks like being ineffective as far as rejuvenating the French economy is concerned.
Being so pro-EU, IYSWIM.

How long then will France remain a "powerful member of the EU" if unemployment continues above 10% and growth languishes around the 1% mark?
Especially if EU contributions must increase?

france is a slowly dying nation. it is truly finished.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

economic wrote: »

france is a slowly dying nation. it is truly finished.

Agreed.
It will be joining Italy who at least have the Mediterranean migrants influx and the associated costs thereof on which to apportion some blame.

WengerIn

vivatifosi wrote: »

That's an enigmatic statement that she's made. She's stepping down from the Front Nationale to rid herself of the party as the election is more important than that. But she can't stop being a Le Pen, surely.

If neither front runner has an established party behind them, how will they go about forming a legislature in the parliamentary elections next month?

The presidential race this morning was likened to a GE in the UK in which both Labour and Conservative parties had been roundly beaten.

The Parliamentary elections are just a few weeks after the Presidential ones. Presumably the President's party would garner a reasonable number of votes. I think parties are a bit more fluid over there.

WengerIn

economic wrote: »

france is a slowly dying nation. it is truly finished.

It's GDP per capita is $80 below the UK's. It's not doing that badly! And that's before the UK manages to sever her own supply chains.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

WengerIn wrote: »

It's GDP per capita is $80 below the UK's. It's not doing that badly! And that's before the UK manages to sever her own supply chains.

Have a read of this, written before Sunday's vote BTW:

whoever replaces Hollande in the Élys!e this year, there’s no question that he — or she — will have to opt for either (1) fundamental change to France’s political, cultural, and economic settings and all the tensions associated with such a transformation; or (2) continuing the status quo of managed decline.

https://spectator.org/france-on-the-brink/

WengerIn

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Have a read of this, written before Sunday's vote BTW:

Interesting piece.

TBH I think that France could do with less statist politics and I think many French people agree. Macron is exactly what France needs and they have a very good chance of getting him.

The 90% of GDP Government debt bit is wrong BTW. It comes from a study done in about 2012 which tried to look at Government debt: GDP ratios to see if there was a magic point like this. It found that there was indeed this inflexion point however not too long afterwards a student found that there was an error in the spread sheet the authors used.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

WengerIn wrote: »

Interesting piece.

TBH I think that France could do with less statist politics and I think many French people agree. Macron is exactly what France needs and they have a very good chance of getting him.

The 90% of GDP Government debt bit is wrong BTW. It comes from a study done in about 2012 which tried to look at Government debt: GDP ratios to see if there was a magic point like this. It found that there was indeed this inflexion point however not too long afterwards a student found that there was an error in the spread sheet the authors used.

France does indeed need less-statist politics but they're not going to get that from Macron, something Le Pen is already pointing out to the French people.
He will preside over a very split French parliament and will certainly not be able to rely upon a majority there.

Ah, French GDP.
Yes, I note you say it is incorrect but why not advise the actual figure; is it because in reality it is over 96%?
Added to which Macron's aims of cutting taxes yet spending 50 billion Euros on those on low incomes and public infrastructure are not going to reduce that amount, is it?

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/france/government-debt-to-gdp

http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/france

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_debt