The election that might make a difference and is too close to call thread - France

michaels

I am of course talking about France

Round 1 just round the corner and whilst LePen (Farage) and Macron (David Milliband) maintain a small poll lead it is not impossible that either or both of Melenchon (Corbyn) and Fillion (May) could finish in the top 2 in round 1 and go on to contest the second round.

This throws up some tantalising possible contests such as Melachon vs LePen....:eek: (A bit like Trump vs Saunders would have been).

Of course the odds are the French will decisively reject the recent past replacing an immensely unpopular soft left socialist president (Hollande) with something completely different, a soft left socialist president in Macron. Plus ca change

LHW99

I believe some opinion pollsters in France are horrified that the difference between the candidates is within their margin of error - they might not be able to predict the result of this election correctly. Hence joining the pollsters in the rest of the world methinks.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

I have been saying in these threads for some time that I believe this election will be a close call, and why.
There remain many variables as yet unanswerable, just one example being the number of as yet undecided prospective voters.

NOT that I am wishing for a Le Pen win OR for the destruction of the EU, let me be clear.
Merely pointing out that it remains quite possible.

Carl31

probably didnt help that there was a foiled Terrorist attack the other day too, that could swing a few voters le pens way

michaels

Carl31 wrote: »

probably didnt help that there was a foiled Terrorist attack the other day too, that could swing a few voters le pens way

Successful attacks like the Spain train bombings have swung elections in the past. I suspect a foiled attack may help the establishment - Fillion/Macron.

I can see LePen not making it few the first round with either a surge to Melenchon or perhaps a shift back to the 'safe pair of hands' Fillion. According to the Wikipedia polling page if Macron makes it to the second round he easily beats anyone else so there will only be an upset if he doesn't - it is hard to know how firm his support is, does he have a 'get the vote out' organisation? His support is portrayed as being strongest amongsdt the young - do they fail to vote in France in the same way as in England?

Thrugelmir

Carl31 wrote: »

probably didnt help that there was a foiled Terrorist attack the other day too, that could swing a few voters le pens way

Another incident tonight. Policeman killed.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

The latest from France24:
Turnout at midday 28.5%, up only very slightly from the 28.2% of 2012's presidential election.
http://www.france24.com/en/20170421-security-heightened-french-polling-stations-amid-terror-fears-france

Spidernick

Carl31 wrote: »

probably didnt help that there was a foiled Terrorist attack the other day too, that could swing a few voters le pens way

A different country, I know, but the thinking was that the murder of Jo Cox would help Remain last year, but it didn't seem to do so (unless Leave was set up for an even bigger win before it happened). The French may well be different.

antrobus

michaels wrote: »

..Of course the odds are the French will decisively reject the recent past replacing an immensely unpopular soft left socialist president (Hollande) with something completely different, a soft left socialist president in Macron. Plus ca change

Wikipedia records the recent polling results.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

They might even be right. They indicate a Macron v Le Pen run off. I would expect Macron to win that contest.

Macron is certainly ex PS, but he now has his own political party, and seems to be re-inventing himself as some kind of centrist.

michaels

antrobus wrote: »

Wikipedia records the recent polling results.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

They might even be right. They indicate a Macron v Le Pen run off. I would expect Macron to win that contest.

Macron is certainly ex PS, but he now has his own political party, and seems to be re-inventing himself as some kind of centrist.

I have been following that really useful wikipedia page for a few weeks - at one point it looked as if LePen was softening enough that either Melenchon or Fillion might pass her but we are back to a solid 3% gap - then again is 3% solid when it comes to polling accuracy?!

Edit: I still see Macron being very much in the Blair/David Milliband mold. I would be surprised if he doesn't align himself with the socialists when it comes to appointing ministers and the PM.

Thrugelmir

Spidernick wrote: »

A different country, I know, but the thinking was that the murder of Jo Cox would help Remain last year, but it didn't seem to do so (unless Leave was set up for an even bigger win before it happened). The French may well be different.

A single nutter is different to a generation of suicide bombers. Who move freely and without restriction.